He doesn't have to be bad for the Astros to score runs. He can continue to be somewhat rusty, have spotty command, and be subject to early fatigue after 50-70 pitches. Or he can be exactly as good as Eovaldi was last night.... and the Astros should still be in a great position to win the game.
My prediction of how tonight's game starts: Top 1st: Semien pops a 2-2 pitch up to Bregman. Seager flies out to Chas in CF on 1st pitch. Carter strikes out on 5th pitch. Bottom of 1st: Altuve hits a screaming linedrive on the1st pitch off the wall below the tracks that ricochets into the Crawford boxes for a HR. Brantley works a walk on pitch 9. Bregman hits pitch #10 a mile high that lands in the front row of the Crawford boxes ( see Correa, Carlos 2017 WS game 5) Yordan is intentionally walked on 0 pitches. Abreu gets behind 0-2 but hits the next pitch into left center for a single. Tucker works a 5 pitch walk. They go get Scherzer after 28 pitches, 3 runs in and the bases loaded with nobody out and bring in a lefty - Heaney? Bradford? Perez? to face Chas.
Bouchy is going to pitch Jordan Montgomery in a crucial spot when Yordan is at-bat. He has been the only one to make him look completely lost at the plate.
The Sborz K of him (and inducing the Brantley DP) were huge outs. The more they see of Sborz the hope is that they can pick up on something. Its happened in long series involving the Astros before (happened to the 2017 dodgers bullpen). Yordan did get two hits off Montgomery in game 5. Above holds true there as well.
And he will be ready for it after watching video of his PAs all week. Hits a screaming double off the RF wall scoring Altuve with the winning run and is named MVP.
In no way can you sit Tucker tonight. I get moving him down more, but the only that I can justify taking his spot is Diaz, but that is not happening. We need Tuck if we are going to win this thing. Brantley has great numbers against Scherzer so I fully expect him to play tonight, and I'm expect him in the 2 spot. Breggy has sucked against Max so we need him to turn that around a bit and at least have productive outs if he is not going to get on base. The real question to me is Dubon or Chas. I'm inclined to go Dubon as he has had more success vs Scherzer, but it is extremely limited sample size for both of them. Mainly going Dubon because he strikes out less. I guess my lineup is no change at all: Altuve Brantley Breggy Yordan Abreu Tucker Dubon Pena Maldy (really wish we'd go Diaz, but we all know that is not happening)
Since Chas hasn't had a hit off of Scherzer, ever, I doubt we see him (limited ABs) Altuve Brantley Bregman Yordan Abreu Tucker Dubon (though I would love to switch it up for a Chas bomb) Pena Maldy "(really wish we'd go Diaz, but we all know that is not happening)" and I'd love to switch it up for a Diaz bomb). Here we go. Buckle your chinstraps. Bring the hat. It's gonna get real.
Lance Berkman, Brandon Backe, Roy Oswalt and Dan Wheeler weren't available. And they don't sit behind home plate for these games.
For reference, Meyers is about as close to Alvarez as a hitter vs RHPs as Maldy is to Diaz. How would fans react if Meyers was on the roster and played tonight for defensive purposes over Alvarez? Granted, Meyers is actually better defensively than Alvarez....
The one wrinkle is that you're going to need two PHs back-to-back - so how do you sequence them? ***IF*** Singleton can draw a walk - which ties it - I'd rather then have Diaz up next because a strikeout isn't nearly as costly and, as you say, if he makes contact, it's more likely it'll do damage. (In fact, I'm curious if Diaz was on deck?) You hate to leave bullets in the chamber - but I can see the thinking of Diaz being second there because, again, a strikeout - as we unfortunately saw - essentially ends the game. Since 2022, Singleton has drawn 180 walks in 945 minor league PAs, a walk rate of 20%, which is really good. (Juan Soto led MLB in walks this year, and his walk rate was 19%.) And in the Mexican league in '21, he posted a .503 OB% (!) with a 27% walk rate. So Dusty's play was a little more than *just* a hunch. It's what Singleton has been doing since his return. Hell, as unremarkable as his '23 season with the Astros was... he did have a higher walk rate than Bregman. (BTW, Diaz's walk rate is 3%.)
And yet he would not be on any other teams roster... let alone playoff roster.... if the Astros didn't have a previous connection to him. We also saw what happened Friday... Diaz first followed by Singleton. In this case, they could have even considered Chas before Singleton. They were down by 2. Needed every possible run there however you can get them. Kudos to Mexican league stats though...I'd just rather go with the guys who are likely to be as good as their MLB numbers say they are, knowing full well that anybody (even some HS guys) could find lightning in a bottle at any point in any single game.
