In 2004 about half of Iowans voted for President. Not sure what % of registered voters that is, but very very high. You just won't see that number double, like the caucus number did. It's mathematically impossible. The democratic caucus this year drew the most media attention that it's ever received. Therefore it stands to reason that the primary %'s was higher. This says nothing about predicting the General election results in 10 months.
Nobody claimed it would double for the general election, just that Democratic voters were more voted at this point in the cycle.
Trader_J, no matter how you attempt to spin this, the graph speaks volumes. If you ignore the '04 numbers, for which there isn't a GOP equivalent, and compare the '96 and '00 turnouts to this election, the increase in the Democratic vote is staggering. The GOP turnout is around the same number as turned out 20 years ago. Nice try. Impeach Bush.
No, actually to anyone informed in math, it has no conclusive predictive value for the general election. The dems made Iowa their biggest battle. The Republicans, like McCain and Giuliani, did not focus on Iowa. Of course there will be more democrats voting in Iowa. Combine that with the media attention and incredible amount of time that the libs spent in the state, and it stands to reason that a higher number of dems caucused this year. Furthermore, the libs tend to have the more... shall we say... zealous... voters, thereby increasing their chance of participating in the time consuming caucus. Pretty simple to explain, really. On top of all of that, most libs are on welfare with no job and have nothing better to do on a Thursday night than to caucus in a civic center basement.
A question for people who aren't named basso, bigtexx, or Trader_Jorge... Imagine in the end Obama is 'the man' and you are his campaign manager/top advisor. Who do you pair with him from available candidates as the best candidate for Veep? I have trouble thinking of someone who might be a good match well for him.
Well, of course he would never pick a Kucinich or anyone like him. Jim Webb is my pick though there are several I'd be happy with. Ultimately, if Obama is the nominee, he will be the one to carry the torch. His nomination would signal an entirely new politics and would attract people from outside the Democratic party like we haven't seen in our lifetimes. Think "Reagan Democrats." This is a positive campaign and it is a movement campaign. More, it's a movement campaign that looks like it could actually work. That kind of stuff comes around like once in a generation. And it wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if he picked a Jim Webb -- incredibly credentialed in foreign affairs (partly in the Reagan White House, btw) but very green (and very appealing) as a politician. Obama-Webb could start the next Reaganesque revolution.
Safest bet is to pair him with an experienced Southern politician to balance him out. It would be like 24 all over again...
So 240,000 out of 750,000 is a tiny fraction? That's almost 1/3. It's also 1/9 of all registered voters in the state.
No way. The Repubs can stew in the South. The NE is a given for a Dem, Obama helps himself in the Midwest. Best to go West, though I can see a border state choice.
So do I. As Batman pointed out, Webb would be excellent and provides balance to the ticket, but I'd rather have someone on the ticket who comes from a state (if a member of Congress) that will leave a safe seat for the Democratic Party to fill. Lets see... isn't Webb from Virginia? Does the Governor appoint his replacement to fill out his term? If that's true, then by all means, pick Webb. If not, Richardson would be a good choice, and I just like Biden. Don't know if he's the perfect "balance" for the ticket, but I like the guy. Maybe he'd be better as Secretary of State. Impeach Bush.
Jim Webb is in many ways like Obama as well, Bats. Very little political experience, wants our troops to lose, willing to accept defeat in Iraq without dealing with the potential consequences, economic populist, class warfare champion, and barely won his election to the Senate and only did so because his opponent committed self destruction of the mouth. Webb has also been very divisive in his short period in the spotlight. His temperament is also cause for concern on the big stage. I personally think Obama needs a moderate Christian candidate on his ticket, to balance out his views and religious questions.
By current Democratic standards, you are correct. By current Republican standards he's a leftie pinko commie America-hating jihadi defeatist b*stard. In absolute terms, he has voted with the Democratic party 90% of the time.
I very much disagree: Jim Webb positions (source): Supports Roe v. Wade and abortion rights. Voted NO on barring HHS grants to organizations that perform abortions. Voted YES on expanding research to more embryonic stem cell lines. Supports civil unions; opposes constitutional ban. Opposes constitutional ban of gay marriage. Affirmative action should apply to African-Americans only. Support alternative sources instead of drilling ANWR. Voted YES on removing oil & gas exploration subsidies. GOP free trade dream world costs American jobs. Don't let drug companies write Rx drug plan. Focus on health access, not on corporate profits. Supports don't ask, don't tell rule for military. Republicans are illegally wiretapping Americans. Voted YES on implementing the 9/11 Commission report. Opposes using Social Security taxes for private accounts. There are two main axis where he is conservative, but on each of those axis he is liberal relative to the average Republican or Huckabee. He is conservative on immigration, but not nearly as aggressively combative as the position that Huckabee has taken. Relative to Democrats he is conservative on security and defense issues, but he is much more liberal than the rhetoric of the average Republican, or of the president and by extension Huckabee, who basically advocated a 'continue with what we are doing' foreign policy. I'm not sure if this really is Huckabee's position, since he doesn't really seem to know what is going on, but it is the position that he has advocated. Webb definitely is a flaming liberal on national defense relative to the Neocons. Beyond that Webb is uniformly liberal, while beyond those two positions is where Huckabee becomes his most conservative on issues like abortion and gay rights.
