Obama doesn't command respect in Asia. Getting clowned by the Philippines and China.

Why is your avatar a picture of a guy doing a body-building pose?

If it's you; why did you post an avatar of you doing a body-building pose?

 

You mirin' brah?

 

China has been buying properties in America, us companies and even 1.3 trillion in treasury bonds. So pretty much China is running our country. Obama has to just sit back and chill at this moment

 

Philippines' Duterte says didn't really mean 'separation' from U.S.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-philippines-idUSKCN12L28T?il=0

 

Obama getting cloned? Sounds more like Duterte being a clown.

 

Not surprising that Duterte is backpedalling. For as much as he might not like Obama criticizing him he realizes too how important the US is to the Philippines. It's another example of a leader letting his mouth and ego get ahead of him. Kind of a sneak peak into what could happen to the US if the election goes a certain way.

 

While I think Duterte is doing this mostly out of his own personal animosity and ego I think a lot of Americans don't know the very complicated history between the US and the Philippines. Most Americans know little about the war that the US fought against Filipinino insurgents in the late 19th C. and the early 20th C.. A war that still leaves a lot of rancor in Filipino history as the US forces committed many attrocities there but barely mentioned in most US history.

 

If I can toot my own horn, or howabout pimp my own post. A lot of what we are seeing happening is something that I brought up in a debate with another poster months ago.
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php...us-military-leave.275571/page-4#post-10565118

One of the problems that I see with Obama's pivot to Asia, and unfortunately it's a strategy that Clinton looks like she's continuing, is looking at it like in the Cold War. Too much of the strategy is about containing the PRC and seeing them as a threat. As such a country like the Philippines is seen in US thought as a victim of the PRC imperialistic aggression in th South China Sea and so out of fear of the PRC the Philippines would return to the US fold. As stated that ignores the complexity of both the US relationship with the Philippines but also the Philippines relationship with the PRC. The Philippines and other SEA countries don't see themselves as either on the side of the US or the PRC.

Further the view that the PRC is acting out of greed and imperial ambition when it comes to the South China Sea and other territorial disputes again ignores Chinese history and also that the PRC has consistently used soft power over military power when it comes to resources and international influence. The only area where the PRC has been willing to use military power is when they perceive that their territorial integrity is under threat. This fits exactly into why the PRC has been so aggressive in the South China Sea, they both consider it historically Chinese territory (a dubious claim at best) but also as a strategic asset towards stopping US containment. At the same time Duterte aligning the Philippines with the PRC over the US is a perfect example of soft power. The PRC have seized upon an opportunity where one country's leadership is at odds with the US and presented themselves as a viable partner without the strings and criticism of internal affairs from the the US. So without firing a shot they've moved a country from closer to the US to closer to them.

 

Obama sure is doing his best to call the 1980's. Apparently, he does want their foreign policy. It is not just the attitude toward the Phillipines but also this nonsense about the US intervening in Syria because of a "humanitarian crises". Doesn't the US have enough "humanitarian crises" on its plate? What do people think is happening in Iraq or Libya with ISIS? The Taliban now effectively control 3 of Afghanistan's provinces and just a week ago slaughtered nearly 100 military police in a single battle.

 

I don't agree with your nuanced premise over hard vs soft power dynamics wrt China because they don't have the capacity or capability yet to project hard power. Their interests for the next 20-50 years is absolute regional hegemon, which, any Risk player would know, is inconceivable to get involved in a land war in Asia.

Meanwhile, the previous events building up to our Philippines (re)pivot is China's improved sea capabilities and their investment into artificial islands off the coast of contested terrirtories all over the s. china sea. That's a blatant projection play, no soft power there. Unless you consider the thought of china outright ignoring international court decisions and trampling over the Philippines rights as hard power, I think your premise is a matter of potato potahtos.

The other aspect is how we, the US, views the Asian Pacific. Obviously, we consider it a domain under our guardianship and nuclear umbrella, so whatever China does or breathes in the region, we'd take it as an international rather than a regional threat.

But we're not going to goto war for the Philippines or break the bank like we would for Japan, s. Korea, or even Taiwan. Much less for Taiwan as an independent state would do no one any good, not even the Taiwanese...

East Asia will be the ground zero for the next economic revolution. The US is in uncharted waters but a little strongman like Dutarte isn't going to affect the long term. Malaysia, S. Korea, and the southern Asian states should rightfully look up to their future places in the world market. The phillipines need a lot more self investment and housecleaning to get to that point.

 

So much handwringing over this one that it's laughable. Little turd with hard rhetoric about a lameduck leading up to his visit to China, crescendo right as he's in China for his visit, gets several billion dollars in aids and loans, goes back to the Philippines a national hero for having found cash and played both superpowers (we'll see about that), Oceans 11 style, the lovable scoundrel, all that jazz. Immediately says he didn't REALLY mean that they won't work with the U.S. anymore. We'll see how the strategem fares. Unless he left China with crates of cash (USD that is, not the worthless RMB), China is known to tear up contracts and disavow them.

Also, why is liltexxx constantly worried about getting the respect of dictators, bullies and human turds in general?

 

China is providing neighbors with cheap loans, investment, aid, and cheap infrastructure development. The Philippines are playing both sides, its not going to work in the long run, but they'll probably do it as long as they can. There is a nice article in the economist in the last couple weeks outlining the aforementioned, its simple, China makes more sense for the Philippines right now.

 

You just have to look at China as doing what provides for their billion people, right or wrong in our eyes. It's not evil it's just pragmatic,
Make China Great Again!

 

Japanese tried to do that but they are still suffering the effects of stagnation decades later.

Chinense citizens are trying to store their money outside the reaches of their government. Hard to trust a government who can make you sell your or hold your position.

 

You bring up a good point that the PRC doesn't really have the capability to project power so in that sense it is natural they rely on soft power as much as possible. When it comes to the South China Sea though it is pretty apparent that they are projecting hard power and certainly in a one on one conflict between the PRC and the Philippines it's still likely that the PRC would win.

My point is though is that th PRC would rather deal with the Philippines using soft power in general even though in the territorial dispute they are using hard power. The difference is is that the PRC considers the South China Sea as essential to protecting its own territorial integrity and in that case are more than willing to use hard power for it. They don't consider it as an aggressive move to seize resources but as territory that was historically Chinese and necessary to prevent them from being blockaded by hostile foreign forces. I doubt that the PRC has any interest in actually taking over the Philippines and if it was just the resources they wanted they could go about it different ways.

Yes I agree that the US views this as an international situation and the situation with the Paracel Islands the US views in terms of a larger struggle with the PRC. The US has pretty much stated that it is looking to contain the PRC and the South China Sea is just one area. The Diaoyutai / Senkaku Islands are other areas. The PRC views these moves as an attempt to blockade them and possibly them to their knees. They make arguments about how the US and its allies want to close off the PRC's access to the Pacific and to the Indian Ocean using economic exclusion zones.

True I don't think the US or the PRC want to go to war over SE Asia but I do think there is a lot of misunderstanding and paranoia on all sides. From the US side I think there is too much cold war thinking regarding looking at the PRC as a strategic rival and using the methods to deal with it to how the US dealt with the USSR.

 

China has been pretty good at playing hurt feelings while ramping up aggression against its neighbors. They've been promoting this Peaceful Hegemon mantra where bribes and good relations work in tandem with propping up resentment against Japan or the highly moralistic US. Them picking a fight with the Phillippines would be seen as bullying and ruin progress they've made in the last 15 years.

Obama's China pivot is long overdue and I don't think both sides are playing roles in yet another Cold War. The times, circumstances, and ideological differences are completely different. There isn't even a nuclear threat/response posed by China as there still is with the former USSR.

What I'm saying is, I don't think any policy expert in that area is treating the situation like the Cold War (two superpowers pitted mano e mano mainly by ruining its neighbors in its wake), though the threat of an authoritarian power that controls a billion people and vast amounts of dollar reserves is worrisome by virtue of scale, let alone its increased investment into defense as a ratio of its GDP.

If we are talking about Cold War history, China's role in those conflicts and its actions has been fairly consistent with what they've pursued today. They meddled in Vietnam and Korea just enough without committing too much into complete domestic escalation.

If anything, I would like to hear your alternatives in place of the American pivot to the Asian continent, where a good chunk of the world's economic growth is poised and continues to take place. You can try to ignore China by pretending they're reactionary, but China is not the type to be left alone. We've already spent trillions in our half century there, so no way in hell should we just stand pat either.

 

To be fair, according to an article by a Graham Allison, a director at Harvard's law school, no major power (security council's 5 permanent members) has ever accepted an unfavorable international court ruling when it involved sovereignty or national security issues. For powerful nations, the normal procedure toward international court rulings is: 1) If it's favorable to you or unfavorable to a competing power, immediately declare the ruling & the court as legitimate as binding and all parties should follow the ruling 2) If the ruling is unfavorable, immediately reject the ruling while throwing in some thinly veiled insults questioning the court's jurisdiction, legitimacy and suggesting it's somehow politically motivated.

This can lead to some fairly comical results, immediately after this China - Philippines ruling Australia declared that all parties should abide by its ruling and that the court had jurisdiction over such maritime boundary issues, but literally just days later when the exact same court decided to pick up East Timor's case against Australia over maritime boundary issues covering an oil & gas rich area Australia is now claiming such courts have no jurisdiction over maritime boundary issues.

 

"Insurgents"? More like any male over the age of 12.

Regardless, the Filipino population in general has a very favorable view towards the US.