Once again, if you look at the trend lines from all of the years we have been in Iraq, the summer months have always show lower levels of violence. The one trend is that year after year, the violence is rising.
So aren't you saying it will take at least one year to determine if the surge is working? In that case, we will need more time right, and should give the surge until 2008 to see if the year over year trend is indeed declining.
While that might be interesting intellectually it is impractical. Pretty much everyone from the Pentagon on down have said that the surge is unsustainable. As for reports of short term and localized progress that very well might be so but skepticism is warranted as previous other surges, such as the taking of Fallujah and Ramadi, have produced progress (in terms of reduced US and Iraqi casualties) only to have things return to a horrible state. Not to fully discount that there isn't some possibility of the surge working but given the US's track record so far I'm very skeptical and the fact that almost no political progres is being made I think long term progress is questionable.
There is already a trend by which to judge. This July has been deadlier than the last two and I'm pretty sure it's been the deadliest of the war. Pointing out the fact that American deaths are down from May is not only cherrypicking (a favorite tactic of this admin); it's disingenuous. They're down every July from every May. So if you want to look at trends wrt dead Americans in July, the only useful way to do it is to compare to past July's. When you do that, you get a bad result.
Let's suppose the surge is working, which depends on how you define "working". I believe it could be working on a temporary basis but very doubtful long term. That is besides the point. Someone explain to me why this matters since the sorry, pathetic weasels in the Iraqi government will simply waste whatever (temporary) gains are made. Until there is a viable government in Iraq, there is no hope for stability in that country. The current government needs to be boxed up and shipped out to Siberia, never to be heard from again. Until there is leadership or political will in Iraq for the factions to cease their opportunism and do what best for everyone, there is no hope. The country is more broken than Humpty Dumpty and can't be fixed. Is anyone here making the case the surge should be permanent?
I'd love to know that too. Not a single person from the pro-war (or pro-surge or whatever) crowd, here or elsewhere, has satisfactorily addressed the issue of the civil war there. Certainly no one here has. In fact, I can't remember anyone here even trying. NewYorker: maybe you could answer this since basso and Jorge definitely won't. How does the surge, even as a maximum fantasy level success, address the fact that no matter how long we stay the civil war will continue once we've gone? By killing every Shi'ite that wants to kill a Sunni and vice versa? How? Nobody has said. You have a new confidence in this strategy so maybe you can help me out here.
Very interesting article in today's LA Times regarding the surge and Patreaus' September report card. I found this graph quite illuminating...
Surely the report is mistaken. Petraeus is a good general who will tell us what's really happening in Iraq. We just need to give him more time to implement his strategy and see if success is just around the corner.
Here's the next paragraph... Golly gee-whilikers, I sure hope it's wrong too! This waiting is just too suspenseful. I wonder what will happen?
So the WH will write the report and then the WH will interpret the report. What could possibly go wrong?
We will be told the surge is a success! Enough of a success that we must give it another 6 months, but not enough of a success that we can pull the troops out. my head hurts
Hmmm. Who to believe? One little story in the Los Angeles Times or the combined statements of our current administration? I'll just have to wait and see.
Is 30 months really too long..... Is 60 months really too long..... Is 10 years really too long.... Victory will always be just over an ever receding horizon. They will spin it like they did the Initial Benchmark Assessment Report so that failure will be described as reasonable success.
