NYT Nate Silver Doubles Down: 75% Chance Obama Wins

Actually he said 90% by the time of the election. 75% takes into account possibilites of blunders and other big news that may tilt the election. But near election time, he basically said the only reason it's not 98% or some other ridiculous number is because the polls may systematically be wrong. As in, the polling method may not accurately get a representative sample.

In other words, he stated that as long as the polls are accurate, Obama did have almost-100% chance to win. And as someone with decent understanding of statistical probabilities, that makes a ton of sense. Margin for error decreases a lot when you have tons of polls all leaning the same direction.

 

I predicted a 90% win for the Texans with 2 minutes left in the Buffalo game.

 

what a beast.

 

When he had Obama at 80%, he said that was the rough equivalent of a football team leading by a FG with 2 minutes left and the other team having the ball.

 

My only problem with this, is that if Romney had won, that wouldn't have proven Nate Silver wrong. After all, he gave Romney a 1 in 4 chance. But it would have given the anti-math luddites some ammo.

 

There is no such thing as 100% in poll sampling.

 

Except he didn't. He gave Romney a 25% a week or two ago. As of last night, he had Obama at 92% and explained exactly where the 8% possibility came from and under what circumstances it would happen.

 

Where he was most impressive was calling all 50 states correctly - in particular, Florida and Virginia, where the polling was mixed and often favored Romney - but his model pointed both to Obama.

 

Huh? At that point it had to be 99% for the Texans, by any type math. So you're obviously much worse than Silver in this regards.

And guessing the election based on polls is predicting without all the information. Imagine it's Team A vs Team B and A is leading by 12 with 2 minutes to go. Well, if Team B is the Packers, their odds of winning obviously is much higher than if Team B was the Chiefs.

 

Well, this is it. I'm satisfied that Obama has won the election. However, I am shocked. This is an unprecedented moment in American History. Sad to say. We are headed for 4 more years of gridlock, and more economic ruin. That this president was re-elected was a miracle and a significant wake-up call to those of us who had been living with the reasonable expectation that the American electorate would respond to abject failure. Instead the American electorate has shifted to young and dumb and to expecting hand-outs from the government. Against the backdrop of 70 million baby boomers retiring, I expect to be a dead man before I am eligible for Social Security. I'm sure in the future they'll have to raise retirement age for my generation to 75 or higher.

I never dreamed this would happen. I never dreamed that the worst president ever would be able to sway the electorate because of his charisma and skin color. I never dreamed so many would be duped not once, but twice. But alas, the moment is upon me.

I will keep my word. It's time for me to go anyways. I haven't enjoyed posting here for a while now. I don't like word fights, don't like name-calling, don't like not being able to have reasonable discussions and getting jumped on for every comment.

I have enjoyed discussing bball with a precious few of you here. Most of the good bballers don't come over here. I should've stayed out. I came over here for the wrong reason.

But that's okay. On to bigger and better things. Won't be back. Won't miss this D&D at all. Carry on with liberal foolishness. I'll pursue my basketball ideas and peek in on the bball boards once in a while to keep up with some of the old guys that I respect.

Peace, out.

 

NSFW
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Fortunately for you, you're not very good with your expectations and predictions.

 

I respect you for coming back here to say goodbye. Best wishes in everything.

Can I by chance have your rep? I know the points don't matter, but if you're just going to let it go to waste maybe I could absorb it? That is just like me though, always looking for a handout...

 

lol what a drama queen.

 

Dont go jopotato.

Please?

 

This is gold.
You can sense the butthurt in Jopatmc's post.
Seriously dude? If you weren't so arrogant and prideful nobody would complain if you stayed.

 

As 25 year old vet many of my closest friends are hard line Republican. I still respect them and they still respect me as a liberal. Shame that you can't do the same. Stop thinking you are above everyone else.

 

No class and arrogant to the end.