[NY Times Opinion] Is the 3rd Intifada inevitable?

I'm not (quite) cynical enough to think they'd do it on purpose, but a Third Intifada would be a dream come true for the government.

People would support the government, and anyone who didn't would be branded a traitor. Rioting like this and police beatings of protestors like this would stop in Tel Aviv.

As we speak, the police in Tel Aviv are commandeering commercial busses to haul off protestors so they can beat them without all those pesky cameras around. Palestinians have no rights, so it's much easier to deal with them. Tear gas, bulldozers, sonic weapons, and all that can be employed with way less pull at the conscience, and much less damage to the poll numbers.

There wouldn't be a return of the J14 protests because it wouldn't be "safe" or "appropriate" if there was an Intifada to quell so Bibi wouldn't have to worry about the leftist kids yelling in the street. Heck, they wouldn't even need to bomb Iran to stay high in the polls.

 

To be fair, one major thing that has changed since the Second Intifada (and the Wall) is Israeli participation in protests in the West Bank once they became non-violent. Which is a good thing in subverting the polarization of the issue, but I think it has a loooong way to go.

Many Palestinians are not particularly keen on it...and it's a problem. Some aren't too interested in sharing a future with Israelis and are wary of their support. I'm not at all sympathetic to that point of view. I can understand why they may not be terribly excited about welcoming Israeli protesters, but if you can't reconcile with the people risking their lives to help you, what kind of future are you wishing for? And what kind will you get? You can't make the leap to an equitable post-colonialist society by dreaming of expelling another wave of forced emigrants. That's a fantasy Palestinians will have to abandon for any peace solution to work (ask the IRA about that one). One Nakba is not going to be erased with a new one.

Whether anyone likes it or not, it is the Israeli voting public who ultimately decides the future of the West Bank & they DO have the power to end the Occupation. Palestinians themselves are doing a much better job of appealing to the moral imperative of ending the Occupation than "friends" of the Palestinian people who polarize the issue and send the idea that the world hates Israelis. Israelis aren't Americans They don't expect to be or want to be liked. They've been telling children for generations that the world hates them and wants to kill them. Those fears are easily incited by some of those with the best of intentions.

On the Israeli side, activists try to appeal to the international left at the expense of the Israeli public. That's bad too. This might get radicals from Berlin and Seattle to "express their solidarity" but it alienates Israeli voters who may have otherwise been sympathetic to the cause of peace. It helps the Bibis and Liebermans also paint them as out of touch whackos that hate Israel and Israelis. Sometimes they are unfortunately right.

Shock value and drama gets the media spotlight, but it doesn't make the changes necessary to improve society. "Anarchists Against The Wall" (who aren't really anarchists) would probably make better inroads in both Palestinian and Israeli society if the were called "Nice College Kids That Aren't Bigots & Like To Sleep At Night" but it doesn't sell as well.

Third, the international left (the activists from outside Israel) is not helping either. Things like the flotilla that are meant to express solidarity to Palestinians, are seen as mean-spirited incitement to Israelis. It again alienates the centrist Israeli, who would be sympathetic to the cause of peace, but few are terribly sympathetic when people are screaming about how much they hate you. Or attacking their security people with lead pipes.

Israel's internal protest movement (different from but inclusive of the pro-peace camp) is poorly defined & is a very large tent, but it refuses to die. It's leaders are not exactly the smartest intellectuals, but the main message is a return to a more equitable government that better addresses the needs of the common man. Being that the Occupation is a benefit to a minority in the country at the expense of everyone, it's not hard to imagine it being addressed by such a future government.

 

One glaring fact also...is that the wall does the job is was intended to do.

As long as the wall is there and staffed by the army, getting bombers into Tel Aviv in any number is not going to be easy. It's in response to the Second Intifada that it got built in the first place, and you can be sure the security establishment is keen not to let it happen again.

Any new uprising would probably end up being more of a Palestinian civil war (directed against Abbas) then a return to 2002.

The hunger strikes and new non-violent tactics Palestinians are using are proving effective. I would expect the PA to crack down on any violence pretty fast.

 

The entire region of the world is a pawn of the United States and to a lesser extent Europe.The only reason the Middle East matters and will matter to the West is because it holds "OUR" oil.

It is simple, give the oil to us cheap, or we will take it by force. The last 10 years of war and our continued support of a nazi-like government in Israel just shows we are not giving it up.

Want a revolution in Iraq? Saudi Arabia? Sure... But we will have "enduring" military bases (state dept actually uses terminology)... Iran is next... This is not about democracy (we leave the area in chaos), it is about making it clear it is OURS.

 

There are things I don't like about EVERY government. I'm still not sure I would call any of them Nazis. If having a neo-con government, engaging in wars of choice and having a colonial worldview is Nazi, what is the US exactly?


Also, what is this oil you speak of in Israel, and where can I find it?

 

There isn't oil in Israel, but they are key to our middle eastern policy. The Israeli government is about as right wing as you will find.

What is the USA? Imperialistic.. The difference is that for us it is nothing personal, the world population and demand for energy is increasing had an absurd rate, and the supply is the same... We will take it by force, because we can.

History will not look well upon Israel and USA, but we will get 40 years of cheap energy, Israel will get it's breathing room and people will go about their day to day routines as long as they aren't having their homes blown up or bulldozed.