Well, now the tracking polls are all messed up and basically worthless. Rasmussen continued the trend today with the spread alarmingly growing to 11. Gallup, on the other hand, went from a 7pt spread to 2 - the closest it's been. Also, three California polls came out today - one shows Clinton up by 9, another Clinton up by 2, and the third has Obama by 4. So basically, no one has any clue what's going on.
I just saw this on MSNBC. I thought it was funny. Change - by Presidential Candidates, featuring David Bowie <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/gEaS-K3j3M8&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/gEaS-K3j3M8&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
I know it's just Maine, but McCain was leading in the polls there. http://ronpaul2008.typepad.com/ron_paul_2008/2008/02/ron-paul-beats.html Ron Paul Beats McCain in Maine Caucus, Primed to Win Over 1/3 of State Delegates In the race for delegates, Ron Paul appears to closely trail Romney for first place FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 4, 2008 ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA – While most reports about this past weekend’s Maine Caucus focused on the purely symbolic presidential preference poll, in the meaningful race to secure delegates to the state convention Ron Paul is primed to finish second with likely 35 percent of the total delegates. Delegates to the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis are elected by the state delegates. Internal results from 10 of 16 counties, including the largest cities of Portland, South Portland, Lewiston, Auburn, Augusta, Waterville, Bangor, and Brewer, show Ron Paul picking up 215 of 608 State Convention delegates so far reported, or 35%. “Ron Paul’s strong second place finish in Maine, in which he beat John McCain, is proof that this race is far from over,” said Ron Paul campaign manager Lew Moore. “We’ll continue to battle for every delegate in this wide-open race for the Republican nomination.” In the presidential preference poll, with 70 percent reporting, Ron Paul is in third place just two percentage points behind John McCain. However, the Maine preference poll is purely a beauty contest, and in the actual election of state delegates the so-called “frontrunner” McCain is far behind Ron Paul.
This is weird. According to CNN and RCP: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#ME http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html Romney got all 18 delegates available from Maine.
They're wrong, just like Louisiana and Nevada. The media doesn't take the time to learn the way the caucus process works, and they rarely get it right. In Nevada, Romney overwhelmingly won the straw poll, and CNN has given them 18 delegates (and Ron Paul 4). According to the guy from Ron Paul's National Campaign that I talked to in Louisiana, they won 10 delegates, and Romney got 12. Romney's supporters in Nevada were overwhelmingly Democrats (and Mormon) who switched parties to vote for Romney. They didn't take the time to learn who the pro-Romney delegates were, so they didn't elect many of them. Perhaps worse than that is the McCain campaign flat-out lying about which delegates that he has. Read this: http://www.votetherecord.com/?p=1220 There are other delegates that have been lied about, some of them that I know personally.
I won't pretend to understand the GOP caucus process, by my understanding is that the national convention delegates won't be selected for Nevada until late April at the State Convention. There are county conventions before that in early March to determine the delegates going to the state convention from what I can tell. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/NV-R.phtml So it may be the case that Romney doesn't get the 18 delegates in NV, but it doesn't seem like we'd know that until the state convention, no?
True. In almost all caucus states, the delegates to the state conventions are elected "uncommitted". In practice, the campaigns (usually at the grassroots level) get their own people to run as delegates to the state convention, and they know that if they have a majority in any congressional district, they can count on those delegates to the national convention. Even candidates that have dropped out get delegates to the national convention. (It will give them bargaining chips in case of a brokered convention.)
a nice little message heading in to ST http://www.nolanchart.com/article2454.html he may not have much of a chance to win the republican nomination, but he will certainly have a voice at the convention.
So is Ron Paul's main goal right now the opportunity to give a keynote speech at the GOP convention? Even though I don't support him at all, that would be great.
I don't know much about how they decide convention speakers or whatnot, but I can't really see this happening. He'd be railing on the war, foreign intervention, deficit spending and all sorts of other core party platforms. I can't see how the GOP would allow this unless they limited what he could talk about, which would take away the whole point of being Ron Paul. It will certainly be cool to see the 20-40 delegates or whatever he ends up with at the GOP convention. Much better than the 1 Guiliani delegate that will be there.
yeah i don't think he'll be the keynote. in fact i find it hard to believe the powers that be would even give him a speaking spot at all. i just want to see does with his delegates; afterall, he said he couldn't support any other candidate.
Then what "voice" (as you said) is he looking for at the convention if he doesn't give a speech? What would be the point of continuing his vain campaign after Super Tuesday?
he (much like edwards with 26 delegates, and huckabee with 40 delegates) could potentially sway who each party's nominees are. otherwise i agree with you that it is fairly pointless to keep going... even though from interviews i've seen him in it sounds like he wanted out but his supporters keep sending money and want him to continue. he's raised over 5 million this quarter... i'm sure that is less than any of the other candidate (save for huckabee), but hey if people are still sending him money, why not keep going?
Just got back from the Minnesota Democratic caucus. An unbelievable record turnout and from what I hear same thing with the Republicans. From the turnout and early returns it looks like Obama will carry Minnesota after Clinton had a huge led up until last week. On the Republican side surprisingly Huckabee has the early lead and seems to be doing strong.
Bumped to give the report on the Nevada Convention. http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080427/NEWS/804270360/1321 Chaos over Paul cuts short gathering BY ANJEANETTE DAMON
Wow. That's unbelievable! And I thought we had more than the usual chaos on the Democratic side during the run-up to the conventions. Impeach Bush.
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Crazy, wes. Reminds me a little of the fuss over the Texas caucus, when many Hillary Clinton supporters became angry over how it was handled. Frankly, they were simply out-organized by the Barack Obama people. So you shouldn't complain if the rules are followed and things don't turn out like you wish! However, in Nevada, they are attempting to change the rules in mid-game. That doesn't seem fair, does it? Impeach Bush.
The "rule" that they were changing was the automatic acceptance of the delegate slate that came out of committee. That's a bad rule, and it should be changed. You'd be hard pressed to find another state party that picks delegates that way.
