Basso's AM pontificating gives way to PM equivocating. It's amusing how much being on the wrong side of results makes you tend to believe things have suddenly become 'unclear'.
I'm bummed about the Maine vote over gay marriage, but I'm glad I got to cast my vote on the winning side of the domestic partnership referendum in Washington. Unfortunately we failed to pass an initiative limiting government growth, and Seattle voters proved again that they almost never see a tax increase they won't vote for.
Well good morning Tea baggers! Democrats have captured the 23rd Congressional District in New York. CNN and Fox News called the race for Democrat Bill Owens, making him the first Democrat to hold the upstate New York seat since the Civil War. With 87 percent of precincts reporting, Owens led conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman by 49-45. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/ny-23-owens-wins.php#more Palin faints It just goes to show, the good people of upstate New York are conservative, but they're not nuts.
Truly amazing. The GOP did get a win that was going to be a toss up in NJ. But for the NY-23 to go for the Dems is unbelievable. As much as I want to make up reasons why and let basso no it was referendum on Obama, I can't do it. It's just that the party of 'no' screwed themselves up so badly. What a sham. I guess the Palin branch and their plans to kick moderates out of the party will have to wait a bit longer.
Congratulations to Bill Owens on his victory in NY-23. I would expect Hoffman to run again for the seat in the regular election in November 2010. Of course, that race will be conducted without the participation of Dede Scozzafava. Hoffman, who is actually a Republican, will in all probability be the Republican nominee. Until then, best wished to Bill Owens.
Here is an excellent article analyzing the results of the 2009 elections from political analyst Michael Barone, who specializes in analyzing polls and elections, and the internals of these polls.
Health care reform was a factor. And the results from last night will effect the outcome of the health care debate. In fact, Harry Reid has now announced that health care reform will not be completed this year: Similar indications are coming from the House. Here is a link to an ABC News article discussing those comments: Top Dems: No Health Care Bill in 2009 Elections do have consequences. And this most recent postponement of the target date for passing health care legislation is one of the consequences of this election.
Does that mean you believe that this is going to get done this year? Harry Reid and the congressional staffers quoted in the other article would not be making these statements if this had any reasonable chance of getting done this year. The big question that will have to be confronted soon is whether or not health care reform can be passed next year, which is an election year.
well, that was...informative. first, no matter the spin, this was absolutely a referendum on Obama and Obama care. both appear damaged, the latter perhaps critically, and Obama still has some residual good will with true-blue voters nationally. Oh, i have no doubt that PelosiReid will pass something and get it to Obama's desk, and he'll sign it and declare Change! but it will be a bloated financial albatross that will haunt moderate democratic candidates in the years to come. second, and relative to the point above, this is a fiscally conservative country now, but not a socially conservative one (ME notwithstanding). Christie and McDonnell won by emphasizing fiscal sanity and competence, Hoffman lost largely because he did too much of the reverse (i disagree w/ Mojo, i don't think he will be the nominee in 2010, although someone with Tea party ties will be). this is a good thing; Christie, btw, has the magic mix: pro-gay, anti-abortion. third, in the narrow case of NY-23, we learned several things: the tea party movement is for real, and not going away. A (relative) conservative still won the district (Owens came across as right of Scozza), and the republican party in New York is (still) a mess (although some interesting republican wins in NYC city council races). it also tells us something about who the leaders of the republican party will be in the next election cycle. Pawlenty and Palin helped themselves, Gingrich did not. and make no mistake, the Hoffman insurgency was as much about sending a message to the business-as-usual republican establishment as it was about sending a message to Obama. Lastly, on a night when democrats were routed in Virginia, a republican defeated an Obama-backed incumbent in NJ, who'd spent bloombergian sums on his campaign, and gay marriage lost in Maine, muck batman and their cohorts in the media are resplendent in their glee... ...informative.
Except governors don't have votes in Congress. The two Congressional elections both went to Dems... they provide two more solid votes for HCR and bring the Dems House total up to 258... which means Dems could lose 40 votes on any particular issue and still have it pass. On the governors, congrats... you kicked out a corrupt and ineffectual pol who got bored of raping the country from Wall Street and was dabbling in something he felt was worthy of his ego. No surprise, but please read this as a NJ turn and sink millions into the Philly and NYC media markets for 2012. It could pay off. Really. In Virginia, you had a guy running away from his wingnut past as fast and hard as he could while beating a surprise Dem candidate who ran a horrible campaign and did not get the full support of the party. Wow. So, how does VA square with Hoffman? Seems like the candidate running away from wingnuttia won and the candidate embracing it lost a seat that had been held by Repubs for over 100 years. Meanwhile, the national polling on HCR hasn't changed significantly in months.
Bill Owens ran against the public option, by the way, so he is not expected to be of any help to the Dems on that score. Also, you could certainly be right about Owens not being the Republican nominee next year. However, considering he had no real support from the Republican party until less than a week before the election, he did finish surprisingly well.
Sarah Palin endorsed a conservative Republican, who was running as an independent due to the back-room chicanery of the New York Republican establishment in NY 23, and the race turned on a dime. Has Barack Obama ever demonstrated the political muscle to influence a race in this way. I will answer for you. No he has not. This was an amazing turn of events, the likes of which I have never seen, and it was empowered by Sarah Palin. But if you guys truly believe that she is irrelevant and powerless, then you will ignore her from now on. The proof of your true regard for her will be demonstrated by your collective actions.
i agree, he did surprisingly well, and had scozza not double-crossed the party, he would have won (her share was larger than the Owens/Hoffman split). however, his is not the most telegenic personality, and Owens came across as a rugged, folksy, outdoorsy guy, a plus in a the rural adirondacks. the republicans will find someone else. if Owens keeps his distance from Obamacare, he could stick around.
