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November 3rd, 2009

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by basso, Oct 28, 2009.

  1. basso

    basso Contributing Member
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    the most fascinating race is NY-23. IMO, the best thing that could happen to the body politic this season, is for Doug Hoffman to prevail. It was shake up the republican party (a good thing) and sound a cautionary note for the obama admin.

    ...and Batman would faint.

    [rquoter]Four races test the strength of Obama's majority

    By: Michael Barone
    Senior Political Analyst
    October 28, 2009


    Bob McDonnell
    Six days from now the voters of New Jersey and Virginia will elect governors. Voters in the 23rd district of New York and the 10th district of California will elect new members of the House of Representatives to replace incumbents, a Republican and a Democrat, who were appointed to positions in the Obama Defense and State departments.

    All four of these constituencies voted for Barack Obama 51 weeks ago. Obama won 57 percent of the vote in New Jersey, 53 percent (his national average) in Virginia, 52 percent in New York 23 and 65 percent in California 10.

    Yet all of this territory was once Republican. Suburb-dominated New Jersey voted 56 percent for George H.W. Bush in 1988. Southern-accented Virginia hadn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. The last time the territory covered by New York 23 elected a Democratic congressman was in 1870. And the incumbent who is being replaced in California 10 won her seat by beating a Republican in 1996.

    In other words, the 2009 contests are a reasonably fair test of the strength and durability of the Democratic majority that Obama and his ticketmates assembled in 2008, a majority that was only made possible by gains in hitherto Republican territory. It is also a test of the capacity of Republicans to regain turf they have lost.

    Yes, the character of the individual candidates and local issues can make a difference. But the basic issues in these four contests are reasonably congruent with the national issues now being debated in Congress and debated this summer in town halls across the nation.

    The result in Virginia is not much in doubt. Republican Bob McDonnell has campaigned on transportation, education and taxes and holds a wide lead in polls. Democrat Creigh Deeds, though from a rural area, opted not to follow the rural strategy that elected Democrat Mark Warner governor in 2001 and senator in 2008, but instead sought to use cultural issues -- a 20-year-ago graduate school thesis of McDonnell's helpfully unearthed by The Washington Post -- to capture the big majorities Democrats won in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington in 2005, 2006 and 2008.

    It hasn't worked. No one believes that a McDonnell victory will result in women being expelled from their workplaces and sent back to their ironing boards. Bigger things -- the size and scope of government -- are at stake this year.

    In New Jersey things are murkier. Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's approval numbers are stuck around 40 percent, but he has used his wealth to pummel Republican Chris Christie with negative ads and hopes that Independent Chris Daggett will steal anti-Corzine votes from the Republican. If Corzine wins because he is perceived to be the lesser of three evils, it will hardly be an endorsement of Democratic policies.

    The situation in New York 23 is simply bizarre. Local Republican leaders nominated an assemblywoman who has been endorsed by the ACORN-allied Working Families party and who backs the unions' card check bill. One of the Republicans passed over was nominated by the Conservative party and has picked up endorsements from Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty. He has raised money on the Internet and from the anti-tax Club for Growth. He's now leading in two polls commissioned by his supporters.

    All of which highlights, in exaggerated form, the distrust of tea party protesters for Republican insiders and could result in a plurality for the Democrat. As William Galston points out in his New Republic blog, during Obama's presidency voters have been growing more conservative but remain disdainful of Republicans.

    The California 10 results will come in last, and just about everyone will be astonished if the Democrat, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, doesn't win in this San Francisco Bay area district. But many things are possible in special elections.

    Both parties will try to spin the results seven days from now. But one thing seems clear. None of the Democrats seems likely to equal Barack Obama's 2008 percentages in these states or districts. None may even come close. But Republicans may find it difficult to convert the increasing unease with Democratic policies into Republican (or Conservative) victories across the board.


    Michael Barone, The Examiner's senior political analyst, can be contacted at mbarone@washingtonexaminer.com. His columns appear Wednesday and Sunday, and his stories and blog posts appear on ExaminerPolitics.com.[/rquoter]
     
  2. mc mark

    mc mark Contributing Member

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    and the democrat will laugh all the way to the win!
     
  3. SamFisher

    SamFisher Virtuous
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    if Corzine, who has pretty much everything working against him - budget cuts/high tax state/incumbent/former Chairman of the root of all evil, Goldman Sachs - manages to win, the GOP might as well stop fielding candidates north of Richmond, VA because there is truly no hope.
     
  4. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Exactly right.

    These are three fascinating races, each with a story to tell. My, how times have changed since last November when Barack Obama was elected president.

    I agree that the most interesting of the group is NY-23. This has been a Republican seat since 1871, so the biggest upset that could happen here would be the Democrat winning. Hoffman is actually a Republican, but he was not annointed by the back-room Republican power brokers, so he decided to run as an independent against the left leaning Scozzafava.

    In the most recent polls, Hoffman's is leading that race, the Democrat is running second and the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, is running third.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...york_23rd_district_special_election-1119.html

    This is a dramatic turnaround from even one week ago. After Sarah Palin flew in and endorsed Hoffman over Scozzafavaendorsed Hoffman over Scozzafava, the race was completely transformed. The Republican party has been put on notice with the events that have occurred here in this race.
     
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  5. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The most shocking and unexpected outcome may actually be shaping up in New Jersey. This is a deep blue state that supported Obama by a large margin. However, Corzine has no accomplishments to speak of, and his administration has established a solid reputation for corruption with New Jersey voters.

    There is an independent candidate in this race as well, Chris Daggett, who has no real chance to win, but could be a spoiler. Most pundits seem to think that Daggett will siphon off votes from Christie more than Corzine. This has been communicated to the electorate over the last week or two, and Daggett support has started to erode accordingly.

    Right now, the race is basically a tie between Corzine and Christie:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...jersey_governor_corzine_vs_christie-1051.html

    The polls apparently vary because of uncertainty regarding how Daggett supporters will actually vote come election day.

    But if Christie hangs on and beats out Corzine in New Jersey, that will be a shocker. Losing a governors race in a solid blue state like New Jersey will send a loud and clear message not only to Barack Obama and the Democratic Party, but also to blue dog Democrats who are being pressured to vote for pending legislation such as health care reform, and cap and trade. If Corzine loses this race, that will provide an especially strong jolt to blue dogs who serve conservative leaning districts, and it could certainly affect how they vote on these currently pending issues.
     
  6. SamFisher

    SamFisher Virtuous
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    ^ did you copy and paste this directly from the "magananimo" blog? Can you un-password protect it so we can see? TIA.
     
  7. Major

    Major Member

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    Weird:

    <script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/scripts/javascript/loess.js"></script><object width="450" height="346"><param name="chart" value="http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/flash/swfs/chart.swf?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/09NJGovGECvC.xml&choices=Corzine,Christie,Daggett&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=&trends=&lines=&colors=Christie-BF0014,Corzine-2247AF,Daggett-A69A37,Other-1B8F3E,Not Voting-1B8F3E&e=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="false"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/flash/swfs/chart.swf?xml=http://www.pollster.com/flashcharts/content/xml/09NJGovGECvC.xml&choices=Corzine,Christie,Daggett&phone=&ivr=&internet=&mail=&smoothing=&from_date=&to_date=&min_pct=&max_pct=&grid=&points=&trends=&lines=&colors=Christie-BF0014,Corzine-2247AF,Daggett-A69A37,Other-1B8F3E,Not Voting-1B8F3E&e=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="false" allowScriptAccess="always" width="450" height="346"></embed></object>

    That's an interesting analysis, given this:

    I fail to see how a corrupt governor with no accomplishments and a mess of a state losing would reflect on Obama and the Dem Party.
     
  8. basso

    basso Contributing Member
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    it's all about the money- Corzine has spent Bloombergian sums to win this race, and money may out, but rassmussen's numbers this morning have Christie up 3, but w/in the margin of error.
     
  9. mc mark

    mc mark Contributing Member

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    You really haven't been paying attention. Christie has been leading Corzine since the beginning of the election. Corzine has come back in the last few weeks and has now taken a slight lead.
     
  10. basso

    basso Contributing Member
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    careful when you accuse someone of not paying attention- you may just end up with some auto-pwnage

    [rquoter]With just a week to go in New Jersey’s closely contested race for governor, Republican Chris Christie holds a three-point advantage over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey show Christie with 46% of the vote and Corzine with 43%. While the margin is little changed from a week ago and the week before, the biggest news may be that support for independent candidate Chris Daggett has dropped four points to seven percent (7%). The number of undecided voters is down to four percent (4%).

    The decline in support for Daggett comes in a week when several state newspapers endorsed Christie or Corzine, but none followed The (Newark) Star-Ledger’s lead and came out in favor of the independent candidate. Additionally, Christie began a new ad campaign linking Corzine and Daggett.

    Christie leads by eight points among those who are certain they will show up and vote. A week ago, he was up by five among that group. Christie’s supporters are also less likely to say they might consider voting for someone else.

    Corzine does better among voters who might not make it to the polls. That's one reason President Obama, former President Bill Clinton and other Democratic Party luminaries are spending time in the Garden State in hopes of encouraging turnout.[/rquoter]
     
  11. Major

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    Why would you select one particular poll when there are plenty of others? Another one from Quinnipiac came out on the same day as your Rasmussen one showing Corzine +5. Do you have any reason to trust one over the other? I even posted the full trend lines tallying all the polls.

    It wouldn't be because you're trying to manipulate the data to show whatever you want, would it?
     
  12. basso

    basso Contributing Member
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    unless NJ voters are even bigger idiots than their recent history would suggest (possible!) i doubt my post, skewed or not, will influence the outcome significantly.
     
  13. mc mark

    mc mark Contributing Member

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    ding ding dig We have a winner!
     
  14. Major

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    I was referring to you posting on the BBS. You attempted "ownage" based on distorted "facts" when there was much more reliable data readily available and posted in this very thread.
     
  15. SamFisher

    SamFisher Virtuous
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    Of course it won't, but you don't believe that. As we have established, you take your posting here VRY SRSLY indeed.
     
  16. basso

    basso Contributing Member
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    quinnipac is "much more reliable" than rassumussen? or you're just claiming it is because it supports your (skewed) viewpoint?

    hmmmmmmage....
     
  17. SamFisher

    SamFisher Virtuous
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    Do you see that big shiny graphic there in the middle of the page old man? That ain't quinnipiac.
     
  18. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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  19. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    If the Dems don't win, they want Hoffman to prevail in NY-23.
     
  20. mc mark

    mc mark Contributing Member

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    It really is fun watching the republicans eat their own.
     

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