I agree with your overall assertion that relatively few players taken at 26 make an impact in the NBA, but your method here is a little mixed up. You're including all players at #26 or after. That's going to skew your results a whole lot, because most of the players you are talking about were taken in the second round and thus have less probability of success than a player taken at #26. You should consider only players taken with the 26th pick, or a few picks before and after if you want a larger sample size. Rather than including more picks, though, it might be better to include more years in your sample in order to get an idea of the value of the 26th pick. BTW, I think Morey said something to the effect of "Players taken at #26 become contributors 20% of the time. We're trying to beat the odds".
Please. Then people need to stop bandying about Rashard Lewis, Gilbert Arenas, Cuttino Mobley, Manu Ginobili, Michael Redd et. al. They were taken in the 2nd round.
I realy dont think we should take glen davis in the first round. he cant play perimeter defense very well and sean williams is better on the defensive side he still needs to develop offense but if he can beat everyone down the court then he has easy points. In a uptempo offense some defensive players can realy help.tak sean williams 5 blocks a game what else can you ask for.
I don't know who we should draft but I don't trust Glen Davis. He's certainly got skills but I was a fan of the Suns when Oliver Miller was there and he just couldn't keep the weight off. John Williams and Tractor Trailer same thing. Miller and Williams had real talent but they just couldn't say no to food. The only naturally fat guy I know of who could keep the weight off for his career and let his great talent shine was Charles Barkley.
Oliver Miller is exactly the guy I think of when I think of Glen Davis! Miller could have been a yearly all star had he been able to keep off the weight.
after seeing that video of him getting dunked all over we don't need to get draft him at 26th....I was all for him before I saw that.
he could be a bust or a steal...i still just don't know about Big Baby.....high reward low risk..i would take the chance...
Huge risk. As much as we need a PF, I would much rather address the PG situation (i.e., take Kaponen) than take a chance on "No Jump" Davis.
I would LOVE to see Davis at the 4. He would really help Yao out on the boards and could play the 5 when Yao is on the bench. His presence in the middle would also allow Yao to roam a little more on the offensive side without and still have a Rocket in the paint. The only question I have is how he would fit into an up-tempo offense that we will probably have under Adelman.
This guy is going to be a bust for the Rockets if they draft him. He's not tall enough, and too fat. We need a tall 6'10+ Forward who is FAST, and agile, able to defend well, and grab rebounds. We don't need a fat strong PF.
Seriously, how hard is it to find a PF who can grab rebounds, and defend? Forget about offense ok? We just need a guy who does what we need him to do. Is it that difficult to find a 6'10 PF who is a good rebounder, and can defend? Rebounding and defending is an acquired skill. It requires brute force, and determination, not a whole lot of talent. Chuck Hayes is basically that kind of guy, and he was undrafted, except he's 6'6. If he was 4 inches taller, he'd be perfect. If I were a GM, that's what I'd be looking for. A taller Chuck Hayes. A guy who will HUSTLE, and rebound like a mad dog. CHuck is a mad dog, hustling, grabbing rebounds, providing energy. That is not difficult to find. One thing we don't need from the PF position is offense. We have Yao and T-Mac, and enough shooters. We just need a guy to help Yao defend, and grab rebounds. Chuck is great, but he's too short. 6'6. Way too short for the PF. It shouldn't be that hard to find.
You probably would have to have a top 12 pick to find all those things that you are describing or prey Sean Williams slides to #26.
Since Mutombo is 40 and Tsakalidis is a free agent and 2nd string centers, which is what Tsakalidis actually is, are going for about half the MLE now or about $9 million over 3 years possibly to re-sign him, then it could very well be that Morey wants Davis to be the backup C. It would cost $810,600 the first year for Davis at the rookie cale on pick 26, versus about $2,700,000 conceivably for Tsakalidis on the first year. You are also getting a young player instead of signing an older player. Even if Mutombo comes back, it's only for one more year, two at tops, and he's only good for 10-12 minutes. If anything he should probably be the 3rd string guy now, a great luxury to keep completely ready just for the playoffs against teams that are playing with size in the halfcourt. Basically, just as much as there is a hole at starting PF, there is a hole at bakup C. Davis definitely reminds me of Oliver Miller. That would be a sold backup to Yao at C for the foreseeable future and he would be younger and cheaper, which is exactly what Moneyball dictates. I can see Hayes being re-signed to be the backup PF, Reed being played as the 3rd string PF, Yao at starting C, with Davis and Mutombo backing up at C, with Davis eventually being groomed as Yao's full time backup. That actually would be a pretty sensible move because it fills a need and doesn't cheaply, while also making the team younger. But drafting him or Fazekas or someone like that to start at Pf doesn't really feel the need. So I can see Davis being drafted as Yao's backup, and the man is 6-9 300 pounds at just age 21 and that's on a diet. A young Oliver Miller on a diet would indeed fill the need at backup C.
