Thats funny I coulda sworn that JJ plays the position Posey played last season. And watching Posey last season was painful. Does anyone else remember last season? Posey would take the ball and keep the ball and dribble the ball and shoot the ball over and over and over. He managed to make Cat's shot selection look reasonable. Posey is doing better in Memphis because they're a small running team. Even ifhe stayed in Houston, he wouldnt have the success he has now. That Grizz team is all about running, the Rox play a slowed down halfcourt game. I thought everyone knew this
You seem to be totally ignoring his 3 point shooting the last half of his time with us and carried through this whole year. He also has been above an 80% FT shooter his whole career. It is not like the guy is bad shooter who can't keep opponents honest. You keep on bringing up Jackson, but how about the 3.something million per season for Pike that looks like dead money. Pike versus Posey was the decision we made at the time and clearly got poorer value for our money even under the worst projections for what Posey would do for us. As for pay, here are some numbers for of relevance to your 5th starter and 6th man. Of the teams ahead of the Rockets, the following team have this many players making equal or more than James Posey (beginning of season salaries): Dal 7 Det 5 Ind 7 Lal 3 Mem 6 Min 5 NJ 5 Sac 6 SA 4 So on good teams it is easy to see for the most part an accelerated 5 mil contract is about right for their 5 best player, probably a low ball estimate for your 4th best player which Posey was. Further, this actually is an understimate of market value because of non-market rookie contracts and skewed by guys like Karl Malone not taking market based contracts. Let's compare some of the vet "role players" salary on these teams: Christie (6.9), Rose (4.9), Kittles (9.3), Olowakandi (4.9MLE--exact as Posey), Rick Fox (4.7), Harrington (5.7), Billips (5), Corliss (5). The MLE was designed specifically for teams over the cap to have a way to bring in a 4th or 5th starter or key back-up, and MLE money was what we failed to match. As I mentioned before the Rashards, Odoms, Maggette got even closer to 150-200% of MLE money. In sum it is a "no brainer" Posey's contract was fairly reasonable based on market value. Was it s great value, no, is it the best value no, but it is pretty reasonable. For evey Peja (6.3 mil) there is a Croshere (7.6). This was a reasonable market determined contract almost all owners of the good teams would have matched when a starting vet role player with a relatively long term future was at stake. Given our dearth of quality players and particularly young forwards with a potential to stay with the team in should have made this even more important to us than most teams. By far most of the best teams have kept or brought in players like this around for contracts in this ballpark even if it moves them further from the cap (Christie, Fox, Corliss, Harrington, Rose, Horry). The only clear exception is SA, and that is because they actually could get substantially below the cap which the Rockets were never in a realistic position to do.
can we based all arguments on the facts that CD was not going to sign JJ if he used all the MLE on Posey? You can complain about Rox's not being deep pocket, but that is the fact you have to live with, like it or not.
I didnt say Posey wasnt a good player, just not the right fit for Houston. he shot 32.4% last year from 3pt range, seems pretty ordinary to me, and 43% overall FG%, seems pretty bad to me. He has a lot of success now in Memphis because the style suits him more. Here in Houston, we have whats called a low post prsence so we run a slower game than Memphis. Posey would put up about the same numbers he put up last year if he stayed with us, possibly less since JVG would have a quick hook with Posey's wild shot selection, BTW, 80% FT is nice, but we don't exactly have a problem with FT shooting with the exception of Cato.
We don't really know this. We signed JJ because Utah took a much bigger salary slot than the one we could have matched for Posey and JJ's combined. But if your contention is true, which it very well might be, than it shows CD/Les have put team profits far ahead of building the best team and that bodes ill for rocket fans. That is why up to now I lean as Les the problem not other scapegoats like CD or JVG. If we are worried about a 4 year/23.7 mil contract for a starter or terrific 6th man breaking the bank it is going to be very hard to become an elite team. I don't see many owners of elite teams or teams working to be there let starting players in their prime go without similarly young or younger replacements available or some other compensation.
<i> It is not like the guy is bad shooter who can't keep opponents honest.</i> Did you not watch the games at the end of last season? Most every game Posey's man was doubling on Yao before he ever got the ball. Teams were more than happy to leave Posey open. <i>You keep on bringing up Jackson, but how about the 3.something million per season for Pike that looks like dead money. Pike versus Posey was the decision we made at the time and clearly got poorer value for our money even under the worst projections for what Posey would do for us.</i> Posey was our starting SF. We let him walk and we brought in Jackson to be our starting SF. We also paid him market rate for a guy of his abilities. That's why I mention Jackson, because market rate for a SF of that skill level is around what Jackson got paid. Nowhere near what Posey got. As for Piatkowski, he got $9m over 3 years. He's a great shooter, he's proven that over his career. He's a good complementary player for Yao, but he got hurt in preseason and hasn't played well since. But, he's proven that he can shoot the ball already, I'm not going to write him off after one bad year. It's pretty funny that Piatkowski proves himself over 9 years in the NBA and you're ready to label him a bust because he shoots the ball poorly for a single season where he only plays a little over 600 minutes. On the other hand, Posey has a good finish to last season and you point to that as proof that Posey is a good shooter. <i> As for pay, here are some numbers for of relevance to your 5th starter and 6th man. Of the teams ahead of the Rockets, the following team have this many players making equal or more than James Posey (beginning of season salaries): Dal 7 Det 5 Ind 7 Lal 3 Mem 6 Min 5 NJ 5 Sac 6 SA 4 </i> I'm not sure exactly what you're trying to show with those numbers. Yes, there are bad contracts on every team, I don't think that there is much argument there. But, just because a team has some bad contracts, it doesn't mean that you go out and sign more of them. Heck, we've got Cato and Taylor making alot more than Posey, but that doesn't mean that I'm going to go out and do another deal like that. Look at Weatherspoon, he's been a good player for us since we acquired him. Now, would if he were a FA, would I go out and resign him at his current salary level? Nope, that would be a bad deal. Overpaid guys can still contribute, no doubt, but if you could have gotten a guy that will contribute at a similar level for much less money,then it's a bad deal. <i> So on good teams it is easy to see for the most part an accelerated 5 mil contract is about right for their 5 best player, probably a low ball estimate for your 4th best player which Posey was. Further, this actually is an understimate of market value because of non-market rookie contracts and skewed by guys like Karl Malone not taking market based contracts. </i> It depends. If you are saying that there are some 5th or 6th men making that kind of money, then yes you are correct. But, if you say that guys of that level will routinely get that kind of money as a FA, then I'd say no. Teams have alot of guys that signed big deals based on potential. Alot of those guys never really fufilled that potential, so now they are making alot of money that isn't appropriate for their skill level. Austin Croshere comes to mind. He had a good NBA finals and reaped the rewards of a big contract based on potential. He's now overpaid, no doubt about it. If he were a FA, nobody would offer him that kind of money. He can still contribute to a team however. I don't believe that anybody thinks Posey will blossom into a star and teams don't pay that kind of money for guys that they know will just be role players. Why was Memphis and Chicago the only teams pursing Posey? If he had such a good 2nd half of the season and $6M is fair value, then I'd have expected a few contending teams to have had and interest in him. <i>Let's compare some of the vet "role players" salary on these teams: Christie (6.9), Rose (4.9), Kittles (9.3), Olowakandi (4.9MLE--exact as Posey), Rick Fox (4.7), Harrington (5.7), Billips (5), Corliss (5). </i> Ok, so you can name some bad contracts. Now if you had the ability to redo those deals today, how many of them would you do again? I'm guessing that those teams would choose not to do most of those deals. Would it make you feel better if I named the guys of Posey's level that make alot less money or guys that are alot better than Posey that make similar money? <i> As I mentioned before the Rashards, Odoms, Maggette got even closer to 150-200% of MLE money. </i> Rashard Lewis and Maggette were both paid based on potential. Both are already better than Posey. If Lewis and Maggette don't improve over the next few seasons, then their deals will be considered bad contracts. As I said before, Posey is what he is. I don't believe that Memphis signed Posey thinking that he had the star potential that Lewis and Maggette have. <i>In sum it is a "no brainer" Posey's contract was fairly reasonable based on market value. Was it s great value, no, is it the best value no, but it is pretty reasonable. For evey Peja (6.3 mil) there is a Croshere (7.6). </i> You seem to be confusing "average salary" with fair market value. If you take the mathmatical average of all the contracts, good and bad, then Posey's deal is about average. But if you look at the amount that you would have to spend to acquire a guy of Posey's skills, then he's overpaid. <i>This was a reasonable market determined contract almost all owners of the good teams would have matched when a starting vet role player with a relatively long term future was at stake. </i> Only one team considered Posey worth that kind of money. I don't think that accurately describes his market value. <i> By far most of the best teams have kept or brought in players like this around for contracts in this ballpark even if it moves them further from the cap (Christie, Fox, Corliss, Harrington, Rose, Horry).</i> As I asked above, do you consider the deals that those players got to be smart deals? Given the ability to redo those deals, would you still do them? I'm guessing that their teams would gladly dump most of those deals if given an option. The one excepition would be Al Harrington and that's because he's so young and still has a huge upside that those other guys or Posey doesn't. The rule of thumb that I use to determine if a deal was good or bad is "replacement value". In other words, "What would it cost me to go out an get another player of this level"? In Posey's case, the answer is that I can get a similar player for about 1/4 to 1/3 of that amount (i.e. Jim Jackson). The fact that other teams have overpaid for guys of this level has no effect on the evaluation. It's simply a matter of what would it cost me to replace this player?
We don't know how many team inquired, but he got a contract offered by a division rival with a GM with a great track record who had seen him play plenty. In almost all cases those teams if faced with losing those guys in years past would have matched an MLE, in fact some were brought in with the MLE as Memphis did with Posey. Do youth think for an instant the Lakers or Kings in the late 90's regretted their contracts to Horry, Fox or Christie or the Spurs 2 years ago for Rose (I think an even longer contract than Posey) or the Pistons or Pacers regrett their deals for Corliss, Billips, or Harrington at similar salaries. The best teams were proactive and protected players like that with MLE level contracts (servicable starters or great 6th men who know their roles and who are in their mid to late 20s for the most part). Those guys were instrumental role players where if those teams let those guys walk for nothing they would have less titles, or in Sac's, Det's or Ind's case, be further away from a title. I don't think it is an accident these are the best run teams going. The way you describe replacement value neglets potential growth for a player and the long term value of accrueing a host of good role players. Also, just as Malone and GP are not really market based contracts, Jim Jackson contract does not match the typical market based contract for a guys his skill. He limited his options by wanting to be on specific good teams (and most of them had made their moves already), has always been a wildcard as for his effect on team chemistry, and only became available when Sac decided late to go in a different direction. We were their to take advantage, but we were a little lucky a player like that became available so late. Just compare Pike with Jackson. Pike is a more 1 dimensonal swing man shooter who got 3 mil a year. No question we got JJ at a bargain, not a true market contract--good thing we did. Nontheless, JJ is at best equal to Posey as a total player, and unlike 33 year olds JJ and Pike, Posey can still get substantially better and stay in this league another 6-7 years easy. Teams like the Lakers, Kings and Spurs recognized securing their 4th, 5th or 6th men for MLE level contracts in their prime helped build the winners they become. The MLE is about as low as you can expect for solid vets in their prime who are good all around role players and with relatively long term expected shelf life. Those guys don't grow on trees and for the most part can't be acquired or kept for 2 million per year unless their are other major questions (health, character, age). Bringing in a vet this offseason was fine (JJ or Pike), but to bring in 3 (consider A Griff too, who cost a couple hundred K more than a younger minimum player) at the cost a younger player as good as any of them already, with a higher ceiling, and a long term fixture is not how most the elite teams have built sustained winners. The contract wasn't even that big, it was a very modest if not flat out low risk move to match a player you knew would contribute adequately and potentially substantially for the 4 years of his contract. Worst case where Posey just can't mesh is you trade him later, I think even Golden State got a pick from their abysmal matching situation with Marc Jackson who was no where near the player Posey had shown to be. And who knows, maybe the player blossums where the MLE becomes not just adequate value but great value, do you think Milwakee regretts matching Redd. With Posey may never have a value like Redd--just about any team in the league whose priority is trying to build a winner 1st would take him on their club without costing them tangible assets (which was our case, we only had to match, could still use our MLE) at what Memphis is paying. We either were total cheap asses putting profits 1st, or miscalculated Posey's development--one of the other.
I want to know who is complaining about letting Posey go opposed the signing of Cato, MoT, Mochiee, and getting EG? You guys are like lousy investment advisors. You bought a bunch of bad stocks, and then one stock you picked turned out to be not so bad, you come to say "told you to buy it". If you are so smart, why don't you apply for CD's job? Why don't you tell me which stock will go up tomorrow? Why don't you show me how you do with your fantasy team? There was a lot of concern on overpaying Posey, and in now way he would be underpaid. In other words, there was only downside risk, but no upside reward. Why took that bet? We took some other bets on Pike and AG, they didn't pay out well. No bet is sure game, right? At least those bets made more sense ex ante.
<i>We don't know how many team inquired, but he got a contract offered by a division rival with a GM with a great track record who had seen him play plenty. </i> Yeah, Posey turned down equal money from good teams to sign with a team that has never been to the playoffs and wasloaded at small forward and 2 guard. I guess he just had a desire to be part of the Grizzlie tradition. Even Jerry West makes mistakes. Did you see what he did with his two first round picks last draft? <i>In almost all cases those teams if faced with losing those guys in years past would have matched an MLE, in fact some were brought in with the MLE as Memphis did with Posey. Do youth think for an instant the Lakers or Kings in the late 90's regretted their contracts to Horry, Fox or Christie or the Spurs 2 years ago for Rose (I think an even longer contract than Posey) or the Pistons or Pacers regrett their deals for Corliss, Billips, or Harrington at similar salaries.</i> In the case of LA and SA, they are teams that thought they had the chance to win a championship those years. They would gladly mortgage the future for the short term gain of a title. Surely, you don't think Houston's situation was remotely close to that. Putting ourselves in a long term financial difficulty without a short term payout isn't good business. Who were the guys that were being shopped prior to this year's trade deadline? Rose, Harrington, Williamson and Christie. So, yes I do believe that their teams regret those deals. <i>The way you describe replacement value neglets potential growth for a player and the long term value of accrueing a host of good role players.</i> It's back to the same question: Are you saying that Posey is going to develop into a star? At this point in his career, I don't think that too many people expect him to be anything more than he is now, a good role player. In today's NBA, teams pay for star players and players with huge upsides. Posey fits neither of those descriptions. Why does it matter that Memphis has Posey locked up for 4 years? If I can go get a comparable player every couple of years for much less money, why not do it? The Spurs and Lakers seem to have pretty good luck bringing in guys to plug in around their stars. <i>Bringing in a vet this offseason was fine (JJ or Pike), but to bring in 3 (consider A Griff too, who cost a couple hundred K more than a younger minimum player) at the cost a younger player as good as any of them already, with a higher ceiling, and a long term fixture is not how most the elite teams have built sustained winners</i> We didn't bring in 3 guys to replace Posey. We brought in those guys because the have traits that we lacked. That's JVG trying to bring in guys to fit our style and maybe even set an example for the rest of the team. All three of those guys are team first players and they play hard. That was JVG's biggest complaint when he got here. Why do you think he brought Weatherspoon, Oakley and M Jackson in? Because they play the game the way JVG wants and they do things that we don't do well: Oakley's toughness, MJs ability to run an offense and Weatherspoon's hustle and willingness to do what is asked. Ditto for Padgett. <i>Worst case where Posey just can't mesh is you trade him later</i> Yeah, just what we need another bad contract. Those are really easy to trade off. I wonder why we haven't dealt Taylor yet? <i>Also, just as Malone and GP are not really market based contracts, Jim Jackson contract does not match the typical market based contract for a guys his skill. He limited his options by wanting to be on specific good teams (and most of them had made their moves already), has always been a wildcard as for his effect on team chemistry, and only became available when Sac decided late to go in a different direction. We were their to take advantage, but we were a little lucky a player like that became available so late.</i> There's always guys available every year. Fact of the matter is that Jackson was there as an alternative to Posey so why give Posey that much more money? Even if Jackson hadn't been available, Why wouldn't I have just signed Stephen Jackson for $2M/year instead of giving Posey $6M? <i>you think Milwakee regretts matching Redd</i> Huh? Hopefully you're not seriously comparing James Posey's upside to Micheal Redd? Just on the outside chance you are, let's look at that situation: Redd signed a 4 year $12 deal. At the time he was coming off his first full season in the league where he averaged 11.4pts, shot.483 from the field and shot .444 from the 3pt line. His major problem was that Ray Allen and Glen Robinson were playing ahead of him. So, Milwaukee got a guy who was a premier shooter and they got him for half of what Memphis paid Posey. To answer your quesion, I'd have to say that Milwaukee is satisfied. Now explain to me how that proved anything? All it showed is that you can get a good swing man for around $3M. So, explain to me again why I'd pay Posey $6M? You can spin it any way you want, but the fact is Posey got a high offer and we weighed our options. We chose to go with another player that cost less money and produced similar results and is a better fit for our team. Why is that a bad thing?
For those of you who keep b****ing about Posey. Here's a comparison of his year versus the guy who replaced him Jim Jackson. Posey is having a nice year, but he isnt a savior, so quit your whining already. JJ PPG REB AST STL BLK 3PT% FG% FT% MIN 12.6 6.2 2.9 1.1 0.3 39.3 41.7 83.8 39 Posey PPG REB AST STL BLK 3PT% FG% FT% MIN 13.2 5.0 1.5 1.6 0.5 37.4 47.8 82.1 29.9
Those people won't be persuaded by the stats, reason being: 1) they say we should have gotten both Posey and JJ. 2) they say even JJ does the same Posey does and gets only half pay, Posey is still worth twice much because he is younger. 3) they say you won't be able to find a Posey-level SF for that money. It has become almost pointless to argue on it because people start their argument on totally different beliefs.
It was a mistaketo let him go. You know why? Jerry West signed him and now says he is one of the best bargains in the NBA. I will take Jerry West's word for it.
Sure. First of all, how he performs in Memphis doesn't change his value to the Rockets. As has been said repeatedly, he fits better in Memphis than in Houston. Secondly, a $6M role player isn't a bargain on anybody's team.
Of course, as is the case in the NBA, the big guys will always get more than the guards and swing men. For non-big men, role players seem to be getting deals that average in the $2.5 to $4M range. I'd expect a guys like Turkoglu, Quentin Richardson and Gordan Giricek to be somewhere in that range this offseason. Of course, with several teams so far under the cap, if one of those teams can't sign and free agents, they may get desparate and overpay to sign somebody.
He wanted to be here, we did not offer a good faith contract only a low ball tender. If we had been proactive, who knows maybe we could have got him for a really low price like 20mil over 5 or 14mil over 3. But I get the sense the vast majority of ya'll Posey-apologists would still say "let him walk" for that amount Most of the guys were signed while those teams were building towards a champion or championship contender. Building a champion usually requires the accomulation of players years before. If you and the Rockets don't have aims of being champions by 2008 or 2009 with Yao Ming at like 27 or 28 I'd say ya'll have pretty low expectations. Funny thing is Posey could be effective when Yao is in his prime, no chance Pike and JJ will contribute then. It seems to be signing short term vets who won't be around when it really matters but who will make you competive enough to get bad draft picks (we gave them away anyway) and keep younger players from developing into the needed roles is off long term thinking. If his contract was 22.6 mil over 4 years he would actually be a positive commodity not a negative commodity (whatever the proper terms for this are). The problem is that Mo's is for more than twice that amount in total and 6 years. And youth think my Redd comparison is apples and oranges. Star money starts at 8 to 13 million per year for 6 years, not an average of 5.6 million over 4 years. 5-6 mil is adequate veteren starter money (like the host I mentioned before who are role players but nonetheless key member sof elite teams) I didn't see the Spurs bring in guys cheap. Rasha and Rose have 42 million dollar contracts. They are desperately trying to manover for a similar offer or greater for Manu. They are even paying a very late model Horry 5 mil a year. Yeah the Lakers got sweatheart deals with Malone and GP--good luck building your hope on that. On those Lakers championship runs they were paying Horry and Fox 4-5 mil, more than what Posey will be getting when you consider salary acceleration. Why didn't we start with Stephen Jackson even before Pike? He is younger, does more things, etc. I would have been happy to let Posey go if we brought him in, who like Posey could be around for when Yao most needs solid role players. I can't answer why the Rockets didn't pursue him, I am guessing chemistry concerns, can you? But let us see what Stephen Jackson gets this summer despite the concerns about his team committment and work ethic--something never questioned about James Posey. Return to point A (we tried to low ball in stead of being proactive and got stuck in a tough situation) and add point B--at least Posey or someone like Stephen Jackson could be around when we are actually making a run for a ring. We have given away a bunch of midrange draft picks and serivcable young players and replaced those servicable young players with guys who will be out of the league in 4 years. It is good for immediate profits and OK for current competitiveness, but has substantially limited our options for adding long term contributers for when we most need a stable of quality role players around Yao Ming. I don't remember my thoughts on any the moves save EG, which yeah I thought was positive. I also was dissappointed we drafted Horry over Harold Minor. I can admit I would have made mistakes as a GM. Glad someone who said Posey wasn't worth the match is reconsidering. If Posey bombed like EG bombed or Minor bombed I would have said you guys are right. But it is painfully obvious to anyone with a larger view of the situation we blew it with Posey. We thought he would be a 40% shooter and 30% 3 shooter and thus always be exploitable in our offese. That was THE major drawback to him. He has proved this wrong. I like your way of putting things just disagree with the assessment. Pike and AG were lower cost, sure, but much lower potential benefit moves. Best case scenario is you get serviable sub for a few years, worst case is what we have 3 million of close to dead money. Best case scenario for Posey is you get a quality starter for far less than the going rate for quality mid-career starters (like what we ended up with Mobley's deal), worst case scenario is you overpay a little for quality high minute sub who brings something to the table but has some weaknesses. That worst case scenario for Posey wasn't that bad, it is not in the same ballaprk of of Cato or Mo's deals in years or amount (and like MoT but not like Cato, Posey had proven himself as a servicable starter at worst, but no one could have prodicted Mo's injury--I don't faulk the Rockets that much for what happened in that case) Canoner is accurate here. If we weren't willing to consider both resigning Posey (or say KT if we kept him) and adding a player like JJ for some or even part of the MLE there is not a lot to discuss. If this is true it fairly unlikely the Rockets will compete with vast majority of elite teams or teams striving to become elite teams. I understand most brass want their teams to be profitable long term--Les has certainly made a lot from the Rockets and had his worth increased substantially because of his ownership, but the Rockets have maximizing profits so far ahead as a priority of fielding the best team CBA rules allow that is a bitter pill for Rocket fans to swallow. Sadly so few fans seem to recognize this or realize how much of a disadvantage it puts the Rockets. This thread will end when the folks all for not matching the Posey deal admit we in all probability made a long term mistake assuming our goal of building toward a championship team is in anywhere in the same ballpark of a goal to make profits.
I think we should have re-signed posey last summer. We could be fighting for the 1st spot in the midwest division if we had him i believe. J.Jackson coming off the bench, for mobley or posey. Whats everyones thought on this? Hell yes. I said aw shiite when I heard what the Rockets had done. Ranks up there with the three for one bungle that Houston had recently f'ed up. Man, the 2000's haven't been our decade in deals so far. Although stratigically sound, hind site is regrettable.
Frankly, Posey was not so impressive in my opinion. JJ has been a much more effective player at small forward, and provides a much brighter spark. Sure, Posey had the occasional big game, but I don't miss him at all. He was so inconsistent.....I never knew who would show up to play on any given night. Would it be the 5 point and 6 rebound Posey, or the 15 point and 8 rebound Posey? How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Pop?
