From what I have read unless it has changed, the 8th spot in the west should have 44-45 wins. With the rockets having 38 wins now, if they go 7-2that would put them at 45 wins, which analyst have said this should be good enough for 8th in west. In reality we need to go 9-0 to have a shot without having to worry unless everyone above us goes undefeated which seems unlikely. 5-9 is only seperated by 6 games. So in reality it could be a possibility to go all the way to 5th but unlikely.
The way NO/Memphis are playing, I think 9-0 is an absolute must with 8-1 being a maybe. Hell, even 9-0 can be a maybe (tho I think it should be good) Lowry is hurt?
Forget analysts. We just need to look at Memphis and New Orleans. New Orleans is 42-32 with 8 games left. At best, they lose their games to POR, MEM x2 and HOU, which leaves them beating IND, PHO, UTA, and DAL. Their record would be 46-36 and they'd have the tiebreaker. Memphis is 41-33 with 8 games left. Best case scenario, they lose to NOH x 2, and POR. That would mean wins against GSW, MIN, LAC x 2, and SAC. They'd end up 46-36 but without the tiebreaker. (Note these scenarios are each assuming victories over the other team, so they can't simultaneously happen. If they split those games, they could each end up 47-35.) Houston is 38-35. If MEM and NOH split their games and both end up 47-35, we can't lose again. If MEM takes both games against NOH and everything else is as expected, we can't lose again -- MEM would be 48-34 and NOH would be 46-36. If NOH wins both of those games, we could afford to lose 1 more game and still tie with Memphis and get in on the tiebreaker. Of course, if either of them also beats POR, we'll be in a very hard place. The only break in the clouds is if either team trips up and loses a gimme game (and the Rockets don't).
Lowry's sprained his ankle during Heats game.... http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/7493866.html
Reppd. Thanks for the breakdown. Exactly. The projections are based on their winning percentage which is slightly over 500. The way they are playing, we know both are capable of doing ALOT better than that. We need to focus on running the table (if we win everything, there is a great chance, tho not guaranteed, that we'd be in). Approaching every game one game at a time and winning every game. If we lose one, we are in a difficult position. if we lose two, we'd be counting on a miracle. If we lose 3, we are pretty much out.
Thanks. He did play after getting hurt IIRC. He seems confident he'll play. Hopefully he does. We have pretty much zero shot without him.
I'm worried about the Philadelphia game. We don't normally play well there and everyone is overlooking them.
Look on the bright side: if we lose to Philly, we can stop agonizing about whether or not we can catch MEM and NOH. We'll know we're out!
Thats a bright side? Sounds like a horrible bright side and something I hope that I don't have to see.
Hoping for no Duncan / Ginobili doesn't do us any good. Barring a catastrophe by the Spurs (read:they keep losing), we're facing these guys in the first round. This may cost us the playoffs, but I'd rather us lose to a fully powered Spurs team than win against a Spurs team sans Duncan and Ginobili.
not me. You are dealt the hand you're dealt. Can't do anything about it. if it's w/out Duncan in Ginobili in the first round.. more power to us. We made it this far with a 6'6 starting center due to our own injuries.. I sure ain't crying for the other team because they have some.
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With 9 games left, our only safe bets are games againt Nets, Kings, Wolves annd Clippers. The Hawks game is a 50/50. Then you have Sixers and Hornets on the end of a back to back, which will be incredibly tough. Not to forget Spurs and Mavs which we all know are going to be like the Miami game. Reallistic Forecast 5-4. Optimisitic Forecast 6-3. Unlikely Forecast 7-2.
How Bizzare is it that the two teams we are trying to catch are being helped enormously by two ex-Rockets. New Orleans has Carl Landry, and Memphis has Shane Battier, without them having those two our odds would be much better. Dang you IRONY !! DD
