You are thinking of Deke... Deke had a huge contract and it was bought out by NY I believe...he is only making ~4M a year these days regardless....Juwon signed a 6yr 36.9M contract in 03 with a player opt in 08. all of the remainder is on our cap.
Fisher actually has 5 years left on his deal. In this draft, a late lottery pick is almost as much of a crapshoot as a mid-late 1st round draft pick. If the Rockets screw that pick up, they'll be stuck with Fisher's contract the next 5 years and have nothing to show for it. I don't mind taking risks to get younger, but it would be a risk not worth taking.
You still have to seriously question why GS would do that. #9 > #24. Fisher > Spoon. Pietrus > James (imo, considering potential). The ONLY thing GS gets, as you mentioned is salary cap relief. They are still over the cap, but at least the owner doesn't feel as bad about throwing bad money after more bad money while continuing to suck. Even with that, GS may still be profitable, though.
Great trade. Doubt GS would do it, but they are screwed for cap space. I can't help but think another team could offer more to move up to the 9 spot. There's always a risk involved with the draft, but we've picked well inside the lottery. Yao, and Franchise (we would have picked him if we had Vancouver's pick, Rudy loved him). Griffen had the talent, and for that first two years people thought it was a great pick, but who knew he would be as self destructive as he was (okay the shiner to shine should have been a red flag). My point is that we usually get it right inside the top 10, and you can never pass up a reasonable opportunity to get a lottery pick in a good draft, especially if you were the oldest team in the league last year. As Hottoddie would say: Trade excepted.
Man yall are crazy for thinking that this would not be a good trade. Do buyouts affect capspace? If not then worst case scenario is that we would have to buyout fishers contract. But i beleive that he can still be ok and productive as an off the bench guy.
[QUOTEI would not at all be surprised if Golden State decides between Pietrus and Dunleavy.QUOTE] Nor I. Infact I'd bank on it.
You're right. So the cost of the #9 pick over and above what Spoon costs is ~$26m over 4 years. But I stongly disagree that in "this draft" a #9 is as much a crapshoot as a #24. In virtually every authorative source, you will see this draft mentioned as one of the deepest in recent memory. Primarily driven by younger players worldwide who want to get in because the next CBA may have an age limit. Another primary driver is that in this early part of the draft, many teams will draft for potential. IMHO that means at #9, you can easily find a player with an excellent college resume from a big-time program who may not have as much potential but is much less risky. Is there any element of risk in all of this? Sure. But if you don't take the risk, you're upper limit is defined by what you can get with an MLE over the next 5 years. If the #9 is productive and Fisher remains a servicable backup, there may be years when you don't have to use the full MLE. Fisher's cost in all of this is a fundamentally irrelevant. A sunk cost. A cost of doing business. Stated from another perspective. What if GS auctioned off the pick? What would it be worth? A month ago rumors were rampant that MEM would sell #19 for $3m. Teams were lining up. Surely a #9 is worth easily double that amount. But you have to pay now. Wereas the Rockets 1st $6m installment in a Spoon/Fisher trade is made over the duration of Fisher's 2nd of 4 remaining seasons. (There is no cost in Year 1 since you had to pay Spoon anyway). That means that financially (given a low-ball $6m cost of the pick), you are paying for the pick by what you pay Fisher in Yr 3 & Yr 4. We can agree to disagree, but I'd take that risk 10 out of 10 times.
The fact that Memphis is willing to sell it's pick for cash and that other teams have been rumored to be looking to move down in the draft make me think if the Rockets found someone they really wanted to draft and had to move up to get them, they could do it without having to take on such a bad contract. Maybe they wouldn't be able to move all the way up to #9, but possibly around 13-15 where the talent difference isn't too big. Spend the $3 mil for the #19 and package it along with the #24 and maybe one of our guards (Wesley, James, Sura) to a team like Charlotte (#13), Minnesota (#14) or New Jersey (#15) that needs help in a lot of different areas. The Rockets should learn from the mistakes of the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz may not have any hugely overpaid players, but they have accumulated a lot of bad contracts by giving out MLE money to mediocre players (Cardinal, Posey, JWill) and now they're in a situation where they basically have to sell their draft pick. To take on Fisher's long bloated contract in addition to Howard's would put us one step closer to being where the Grizzlies are now. We would only be one more bad free agent signing away. In addition, by taking on Fisher's contract, that probably means we won't be making any more deals where we send expiring contracts away for a player we want. Knowing that Les Alexander is not a big spender like Mark Cuban, we're only going to have one chance to make a deal where we take on a bad contract. Will this be the best deal we can get for our expiring contracts? What if come midseason a team offers us a player we want for our expiring contracts (ie. Warriors/BDavis deal) if we agree to take on a bad contract? Plus, there's that one less MLE we'll get to spend in the future that you mentioned. Why put ourselves in a situation like that when the gain (#9 pick) has just as much of a chance (if not a greater chance) of being a bust rather than being a productive starting caliber player? At least get a somewhat proven player like Pietrus. I'm not against moving up in the draft, but I think there has to be a less riskier way of moving up without having to sacrifice our cap flexibility the next 5 years. Having backups like Fisher and Howard make +$6 million to come off the bench must be avoided. The Rockets should know better than anyone how much it sucks to have that much money tied up on backups.
Nice post New Jack. But trade a couple of picks to New Jersey for a higher pick, just doesn't feel right.
New Jack, if the Rockets ended up with 19 and 24 they'd probably be better off keeping those and hopefully hit on both of those. Using both to move up to the early teens sounds too risky. On the other hand, if they could be packaged into the lottery for someone like Wright...then oh yeah!
I've read in the past where Golden State might want to make a run at Yao in free agency, why would we want to help them by taking a bad contract off of their hands?
The Warriors already have significant $ tied up in Davis, JRich, Troy Murphy, & Foyle, with Dunleavy's extension due. If you are reading about the Warriors making a run at Yao, it's likely dreamcasting on a fan board.
I've also read where Yao has said he'll sign his Rox deal the first day offered. The question is not helping W's, it's wheteher the move from 24 to 8 is worth DF's contract. (I admit I love the addition of Pietrus but the hypothetical question was simply: Fisher + #9 for Spoon + #24. Is it = value?)
He's the kind of defender we need in the backcourt, period. And he does have some offensive game, he has a decent jumper now that could be improved upon a little. But the key thing is he brings the athleticism and defensive ability that we need in the backcourt.
GS would trade Dunleavy b4 Pietrus. GS is in a good position but Mullin overpaid Foyle big time. I don't want any part of Fisher at his price tag.
GS probably could be enticed to give up Pietrus if they could dump Foyle and Fisher's contracts with him. How about the Pietrus, Foyle, Fish, and the #9, for Spoon, DWes, and Moochie?
