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Not a talent scout but is #2 draft pick supposed to have single digit PER?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by JCDenton, Jan 19, 2022.

  1. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Honestly you hope for more with a number 2 pick, but at 19, he has a lot more to go, so the pick is ok as long as Green keeps getting better.

    The question really is on Stone, can he make top level picks? Because the mid first rounders were excellent.

    DD
     
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  3. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    I don't know....writing off a rookie having a PER of less than your average NBA player (PER < 15) in his first year might not be a bad thing. You can get rid of a lot of scrubs like Devin Booker, Tony Parker, De'Aaron Fox, Mikal Bridges, Darius Garland, Brandon Ingram, etc.
     
  4. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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  5. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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  6. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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  7. NewAge

    NewAge Member

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    Yes, correct. And I still would laugh at anyone who uses RAPTOR to overvalue Ben Simmons. Or Rudy Gobert.

    If you bothered to read what I wrote in the third link, the problem I have is that these stats are based on regular season and don’t tell you anything about playoffs and high-leverage situations. If I am paying max money for a so called "franchise" player I want to make sure I can win with them when it matters. These stats don’t tell you that.

    You’d also see that I say that these stats are useless, because they don’t provide unique insight and often state the obvious. Or in the case of Jalen Green, he sucks in the "eye test’ and sucks in the metrics: there is no value add, we don’t learn anything.

    Admirable attempt to catch NewAge in inconsistency, but that’s a very tall task. Many have tried, but I don’t shift easily.
     
    #47 NewAge, Jan 20, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2022
  8. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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  9. NewAge

    NewAge Member

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    Dude,
    1. That is absolutely correct. We don’t need advanced stats to see that Jalen Green sucks. That’s pretty much is obvious, and the stat s are not very useful.
    2. Why are you obsessing with me? Talking sht about my ethnicity, digging my old posts? What’s goin on here?

    I am not the problem here, my friend. I just posted links to these metrics, which are "considered’ the best, better than PER. They say what they say, and most NBA folks seem to consider them some "high science". Many here do as well. This forum is about Rockets and NBA, not about NewAge. Whether NewAge considers RAPTOR and DPM important won’t make any difference in that Jalen Green ranks at the bottom of these.

    If YOU think the stats undervalue Jalen, please tell us why. There may be some good arguments to be made. But what do you think my old posts, taken out of context, actually show?
     
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  10. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    Excellent nuance. Great discussion. Good talk.

    You either lack extreme self-awareness with why posters here think you are a joke or you are purposefully trolling.
     
  11. DatRocketFan

    DatRocketFan Member

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    Typical. After all that bs about rooting for Green once they get exposed via posts. these Mobley folks lashes out to state how they really feel about green.

    Prime example of what's newage is doing right now.

    Ah yes eye test. U basically deem green not superstar material cause he wasn't macho enough for u.
     
    #51 DatRocketFan, Jan 20, 2022
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2022
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  12. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    hes terrible but half of it is on Cylus...if we had a coach and the proper shooting coaches(because almost all this guy does is shoot) hed be looking good
     
  13. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    the trouble is the eye test doesnt offer much as well(almost nothing at all, just a very fast and quick weak dude that can jump) at least before i stopped watching games.......

    lol and if he were to have a great per we would never hear the end of it...the next harden, the next curry, the next lebron, etc
     
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  14. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    I don't have a problem with you but rather your inconsistency that you claim to not even exist. I brought up RAPTOR months ago and you outright dismiss it as if it's not credible. Don't believe me? Click here. To say "this forum is about basketball. RAPTOR and WAR: are those card games?" as if what I posted lacked any substance and, months later, prop up RAPTOR as a useful stat...no..."REPUTABLE" as you stated in this thread...is comical and basically hypocritcal.

    You go on and on about watching basketball games to get a player's true value and yet you hold pieces like what Schmitz had the rookies ranked so far as gospel for how players will turn out. Let me quote you here:

    As for talking **** about your ethnicity, let's pull that post up right now:

    https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/the-jalen-green-experience-is-coming.313701/page-85#post-13913948

    I'll even put the quote here for everyone to see:

    If what I found while looking at your profile (that you're from Bulgaria) is true (which, btw, is viewable for everyone on here to see) and you're offended by that remark then I'll offer an apology but also ask what the correct level of "toughness" should be for an NBA player because you created an entire asinine thread questioning a 19 year old's toughness.

    To get back on topic: I've never propped up Green's performance as spectacular this season. He has a lot of areas to work on but the piling on him from certain members on here is a bit ridiculous because I know some of those posters, based on being on here for 20+ years, have a specific angle/slant that goes beyond Green's performance or even him as a player.
     
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  15. NewAge

    NewAge Member

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    Instead of talking about my discussion skills, why don’t you set an example and explain why you think RAPTOR and DPM undervalue Jalen Green?

    I had gone to great lengths to explain why they overvalue Ben Simmons and Rudy Gobert. My reasoning is laid out in great detail in these links that @steddinotayto provided. They are based on regular season data, which does not always translate into playoffs. That’s a methodological problem: the training set (reg. season) is different from the test set (playoffs).

    Since Jalen hasn’t been to the playoffs, and since we are only talking about reg. season, I don’t have a problem with what the stats show about him. But you may have. Tell us what Nate Silver and Kostya Medvedovsky have wrong in their methodology.
     
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  16. Trackwell

    Trackwell Member

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    amen

    the flashes are there. he can do things others can’t. period
     
  17. NewAge

    NewAge Member

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    OK, maybe you’re genuinely confused, and are misreading things.
    When I say "reputable" that does not mean that I have changed my mind or am inconsistent or hypocritical.
    What I mean is this:
    https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/
    NBA insiders rank DPM as best advanced stat and RAPTOR as 4th best. PER is last. That’s what this thread is about.
    Nothing has changed about my opinion, I am just stating which stats ar considered in higher regard.

    And I don’t take Schmitz as gospel. You found my post but didn’t link to it, just quoted selectively. Please link to it and you’ll see that it’s about consensus vs contrarian opinion. Since Shmitz is a paid expert, he can be considered consensus. Consensus can be wrong. Contrarians can be right. No gospel. Link to my post and you’ll see that you are misrepresenting it.
     
  18. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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  19. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  20. mightybosstone

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    Of the advanced stats, PER is one of the least reliable, but by pretty much all advanced stats (WS, BPM, VORP, RAPTOR), dude is having a terrible season. If I could go back and pick Mobley instead, would I? Yes, but I wanted Mobley before the draft. Again, though, I'm not interested in hypotheticals or tearing apart a 19-year-old. I want to see him grow and improve, and I think he will over time. Hell, with stats this bad, the only way he can really go is up.
     
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