Not a complaint but an observation: Harden is still playing analytic ball aka MoreyBall

Can you explain to me how WAR is calculated? Don't use information that you can't explain bro. Nobody really knows how Kevin Pelton is getting these figures. Kevin Pelton has been asked on twitter many times to break down the formula but has stated that he will not. Analytics is a tool, and when used accordingly it can be very instrumental. But it's not the end all be all. You have to use those numbers in conjunction, with film, and proper game plan. A lot of these advanced numbers can be manipulated. Don't base your whole entire argument on the numbers, watch the games too. I found the WAR for the 2017-18 season and this is what it states.
1. Damien Lillard 16.28
2. James Harden 15.91
3. Anthony Davis 15.89
4. Steph Curry 14.83
5. Karl Anthony Towns 12.78
6. Kemba Walker 12.36
7. LeBron James 11.49
8. Kevin Durant 8.86
9. Jamal Murray 5.79
10. Lou Williams 5.34
So based off of WAR are we really supposed to believe that Damien Lillard was the best value player in basketball in the regular season in 2017-18? Karl Anthony Towns and Kemba Walker were better than LeBron and KD too huh? KAT was the 5th best player in the NBA value wise? KD had the 8th best value of any player, and value wise Lou Williams was a top 10 player that year? Rafael Stone let's go trade Christian Wood and John Wall right now for Lou Williams. LMAO FOH with these useless numbers.

 

Does any stat give you an exact flawless numerical breakdown of player #1 to player #400 in numerical order? Absolutely not

Do they give a very accurate general guide to tiers of player? Or generally what level of player they are? Absolutely

Just because you can find minor flaws or discrepancies does not negate them entirely.

As far as Melo goes it doesn’t even have to be 538s WAR stat. Literally every single relevant statistic from every different website will give you the same answer. Melo ****ing sucked last year. And has for many years now.

If it were as simple as watching the games then an argument wouldn’t be had here, Anyone who knows what they are watching knows Melo sucks. But yet there are still some who claim otherwise. So I offer the numbers.

 

This argument is so silly, it’s incredible.

not every basket is created equal. 2 points in the 4th quarter mean a lot more than 2 points in the 1st quarter. That shouldn’t be news to anyone.

not only do analytics not account for momentum within a game, they also don’t account for predictability.
If the opponent already knows ur passing up the midrange anyway, they’re not guarding it, which means they can hyperfocus on your shooters, which results into 3pt shots being more contested which results in worse FG% from 3.


so no, rockets should not be running plays to get open Midrange shots. But they should absolutely, on occasion, take the midrange shot if it’s open and makes sense (i.e decent to good midrange shooter gets the open shot)

 

Some guys are strictly analytics guys, some guys are eye test guys, me personally I'm more in the middle with a slight lean toward the eye test (I'm old school, been a NBA fan since the 80's). Based on my profession (Real Estate), I'll say this, using figures that you can not explain for an evaluation won't fly. That will get you in big trouble, possibly get you to lose your license lol. My initial question to you that you simply skipped more than likely because you had no answer was how do you calculate WAR. What is the mathematical formula for WAR? YOU FAILED to explain that to me since that is the whole basis of your argument. Do not pass go, do not collect $200 sir. Any stat that express that KAT and Kemba Walker are better than LeBron James and KD are not stats that I would quote personally. To each their own. We can agree to disagree brother....

 

Thank you, thank you, thank you! Somebody finally gets it. God bless you sir. Well said...

 

Because I can’t explain to you exactly the formula to a stat doesn’t make it more or less meaningful.

Last season 12 players received MVP votes.

538s Top 12 by WAR included 10 of those 12.

The 3 all NBA teams consist of 15 total players.

538s Top 15 by WAR included 11 of those 15 players.

It, like any stat from any website you want to look at, is not and will never be perfect. It will never perfectly align the players in numerical order exactly how they should, but it very clearly correlates strongly with the eyeball test. There will always be single season outliers that just don’t jive what we all now is reality, but again it doesn’t mean that they don’t do a damn good job at what they are setting out to do.

Melo was garbage by any test there is available. Eyeball or stat. It would be one thing if WAR said he was awful, but every other metric available said he was pretty damn good. Not reality.

I guess if being a fan since the 80s(very late in my case) makes you old school than I guess I am too. But I have chosen to embrace all the tools available to me and not be stubborn when information doesn’t align with my belief.

 

What?

Okay, analytics will tell you to take the best available shot in the clutch, that is a fact. Its dumb, taking a mid range last night nor in the playoffs have not been why we have failed, it has just not een.

Who cares? The 3 point makes are what matter, the percentage matters less than that.

It doenst make sense most of the time because we have no good mid range shooters, any time out of the clutch its a bad shot.

 

The reason why we failed in the playoffs, in the biggest moment during the entire Harden tenure with the rockets, was shooting 27 threes in a row without hitting a single one of them. What's your point? Pretty sure a little more diverse shot profile would have won us that game since even after missing a horrific amount of 3s we still lost by single digits.

 

If you are bricking 3s, you are not going to be hitting pull up 2a. Sometimes shots dont fall. You are playing the GOAT team without your second best player only to lose by 9 I dont want to hear it. It's really doubtful what you are saying.

 

It's doubtful what I'm saying??
Sorry, but this discussion is pointless. Stop pulling arguments out of your ass and state them as if they're facts. Ask demar derozan if it's possible to be **** at 3pointers but good at pullup 2s.

The fact of the matter is, and that's the only fact here : Missing a shitton of 3s and still shooting them for 27 misses straight is what lost us that game.

 

Not really, poor officiating, Chris Paul injury, being massively out talented.

 

LMAO Demar Derozan is not good at pull up 2s either. Go check his numbers. You are saying we beat the GOAT team without our second best player with mid range shots. That is pulling stuff outta owhere.

Yea sure, not losing our second best player and not facing the GOAT team...that doesnt matter. But oh boy those Ariza, Goron and Capela mid range loooooll

 

Those things are not mutually exclusive. They can all be true at the same time.

@HP3

Never have i ever said that we need a Capela midrange. I'm not willing to keep spending my time on discussing things that are so stupid to discuss in the first place. If you don't think that missing 27 shots straight and not changing up the game plan to get something going is bad, then that's good for you. This discussion ends here.

 

Some of the folks above have never sat in a huddle or played a competitive game of basketball even on a JV level. It has been so beaten to death and accepted unanimously among execs (including golden state the best 3pt shooting team of all time and analytics heavy) that there’s not much else you can say. When I publish a paper and delve in my use of stats and why I structured everything the way I did (to promote certain healthcare interventions that could have impacts on lives) I don’t throw it out there and go “because analytics”. If it’s a formula/algorithm not widely accepted I cite the publications prior with context and real time results prior to the editors taking a dump on it. I get this is just basketball but a lot of the posts here are a gross perversion of sound analysis we use to make real time changes in this world. That’s how valuable statistical analysis is when used the right way

It’s some level of insecurity if belief that one is being smarter by blindly using stats on here. (not everyone just some folks). I’ve become somewhat of a cynic and stopped engaging in the discussion a couple yrs back. we have brain dead fans on this board you’ll only be wasting your time with by explaining things to.

 

If you wan't to use numbers that you yourself can't not quantify then by all means be my guest. I'm a very analytical, technical guy if you can't tell by my posting style. You can't just tell me said thing is this without proof. Maybe it's a character flaw of mine but that's just how my mind works. It's ok we just aren't going to agree, I'm fine with it. It's the age old empirical vs anecdotal debate.

 

Well said brother...

 

I’ll know if you’re lying, what level have you played at? You know what a FT is right.

its basically a midrange you have all the time in the world to shoot. Teams run plays to hit that shot on a regular basis. I’m not kidding, go down to your local high school and watch them play. The 3 > 2 is applied to a high “n”. With a large sample size (like over the course of a game) it makes absolute sense to minimize inefficient midrange shots (RW whole game basically) and maximize shots like the 3 thay when taken open have a high return. This in turn is also too simplistic though. These percentages are not static. When someone heavily guards the 3 that percentage drops off dramatically. There may be an open guy at the FT line that can hit an easy pop n shot. If you could put a virtual % meter under every player its going to constantly be changing even if he goes back to the same spot. It’s also basic human physiology that tasks requiring greater strength (motor units) do so at the expense of accuracy and precision. It’s why you can start at the basket, take a shot, take a step back and watch your percentages drop at a predictable level. It’s also why fatigue from distance is also more detrimental. “If you can’t hit a 3 you can’t hit a 2”. That’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. Middle school kids at basketball practice would laugh at you and teach you first hand. The reason you’re seeing poor midrange efficiency is not because they can’t hit it...that area is usually heavily guarded and getting a fadeaway/well covered shot off is pretty difficult. Luis Scola wasn’t a damn steph curry but he could hit that elbow shot reliably when open.

I think you should refrain from discussing certain things..it exposes a knowledge and experience gap that isn’t conducive to furthering your argument

 

i'll give fifty dollars to someone who can tell me what the hell this thread's about.

 

Bunch of people arguing against taking open mid range shots using advanced metrics vs others stating look for the three ball but also take what the defense gives you if you are wide open. That's my best guess but I'm honestly getting confused too at this point, this conversation is making my head hurt really bad. Now where is my fifty dollars so I can buy me a big bottle of advil? LMAO...

 

And if you think Mid range would have helped us beat the GOAT team without our second best player you dont understand basketball or math.