Not a complaint but an observation: Harden is still playing analytic ball aka MoreyBall

James Harden is allowed to shoot any type of shots he wants. We've said that as much. Do you think Harden is gonna lose ability to hit a step back two if its an easier shot? Why would you be expanding your shooting range if you are coming in closer? You guys are the ones who are talking about mid range "adjustments." Paul took plenty of mid range here. Harden is allowed to shoot whatever he wants. And if its closer to the basket, they should be an easier shot, no? Like I dont get it dude, what do you want? Do you suddenly think dude's who for their career have never been good mid range shooters(capela, gordon, ariza, tucker) to suddenly take these shots in the clutch, does that make sense to you?

I dont see what your point is? That Harden should take the highest value shot in the clutch(even if its mid range), yea I agree, but we've never told him otherwise. And lack of mid range hasnt been the main reason reason we've failed in the playoffs, Im going to continue to tell you that until you can give me proof otherwise.

 

Scientist?

Really?

 

My point is expressed in another reply to you.

It's that Harden and the Rockets pretend as if the phenomenon of probability that you and I discussed doesn't exist and double down on spamming threes in late game situations the past few seasons.

The proof of our offensive system not being effective is that the Rockets have one of the largest drop offs in offensive production and efficiency relative to other playoff teams from reg season to postseason. Also the fact that the most cherished and bragged about moment in the Harden Rockets era was taking the healthy KD Warriors to 7 was purely a result of elite defense rather than good offense also throws a wrench to your narrative.

Our gimmicky offense got us high seeds. I'll give you that.

 

You cant use playoff drop offs like that and use it to make your point. You play the best playoff defenses in the playoffs and ALL offenses drop. Not just ours. I've even given you examples of where we have done better against better defensive teams in the playoffs.

Every other season Harden has never had a top 10 player to play with. I mean...I just dont know what else to say? Do you think a team with only superstar and no other all star on their teams should advance? It's the most talented teams that have the best offensive efficiencies in the playoffs.

Explain to me a situation where mid range could have saved us in our playoff failings? Or better yet, explain to me a situation where lack of mid range was the main reason we lost.

 

Did you read my comment were are drop off is RELATIVELY more than other playoff teams?

Mid range could have saved us in game 7. But there are so many confounding factors calling with the butterfly effect of having such a limited offense in terms of where players can shoot from. Who knows how many players on the Rockets become signficantly better because they are allowed to practice and take mid range shots. At the end of the day a 3 pt shot is more difficult to make than a mid range shot. What makes the shot valuable is the 3 pts, not the ease of the shot. This team had a lot of "forcing a squad peg into a circle" situations with players being forced to take more threes than they were comfortable taking.

 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

trae young is the early favorite to win mvp using morey-ball

 

What does relative matter in this case though? We are still better offensively than most playoff teams? Like having a drop off when EVERYONE has a drop off and still performing better than them is not something to complain about really. Playoffs are match up dependent dude. You can't evaluate it this way.

No it really couldnt have. Go look up Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker, Capela and Ariza's career numbers from mid range. The've played in other places before they have gotten here. Russel Westbrook is actually better than all of them from mid range for his career LOL. So again....you have yet to tell me how mid range would have saved us in game 7. It didnt go down to the wire(one or two possessions), even though it was a 9 point game. So explain what you wanted to happen?

 

lol Rockets homers will live and die by this mentality. The Rockets without a doubt would win more if Harden was willing to shoot more mid-range rather than back out to the 3 point line for a contested shot.

 

Mmmk bro, point me to a series we would have won if we had more mid range? Actually point me to a series where not having mid range was the main problem.

 

I get that he has only been here a year or so, but scrolling a couple of pages back and reading the whole conversation answers a lot of his questions. He also doesn't realize he's jumping into a conversation we've been having on here for 8+ years, explaining the baseline for every talking point is useless for someone asking the same question over and over. I don't blame you for not bothering. Kept asking for "evidence" but didn't bother to read this which fchowd graciously re-explained to him.

It isn't even in opposition to morey ball @Htown's Finest , I agree we need to minimize inefficient midrange jumpers...its common sense, nothing ticked me off more than watching RW pull up for one of his bricks. The people that want to eliminate it completely don't get that these % are not static throughout the game. The drop off from a reasonably contested 3 is going to be much more (for any player not named James). In late game situations when players are gassed and the number of remaining possessions drops you can't gamble with increased variance. Case and point, last shot of a game within a point, open midrange or open three for a good majority of players...you take the midrange. James knocked shots from 8-16 feet (true midrange IMO) at about 47% , threes at about 37%. Most of morey ball proponents would not advocate for jacking up the three, but a good few would, which rivals logic and basketball fundamentals. If you're talking about throughout the course of the game it makes absolute sense for passing up the midrange and expecting to hit the mean even if you continue to miss. People like roslolian also claim that these small number of possessions don't matter when the large majority of games, especially playoff games with reasonably matched teams are decided by a couple of possessions. The majority of the people over the years have been in agreement, but I just can't understand why some folks insist on "banning" the shot.

What better way to honor murry? Besides I would be doing the rest of us continuing to read garbage a favor..

 

I understand @HP3's position on mid range shots more after speaking with him today privately about it. I think he gets it for the most part but there are just some slight nuances that we differ on which is normal. I just felt like I was derailing the thread and repeating myself. The conversation for me became a choir instead of a good spirited debate to me. Didn't really think I could add anything more or say anything different than what has already been beaten to the death already in this thread. But yes @LosPollosHermanos I do agree that we need to minimize inefficient mid range shots. And I think everyone here in this thread believes that the open three is the shot we should take 10 out of 10 times.

 

Okay, Im going to do this in a civil manner, do your best to respond(though I suspect you wont because well you are you.)

1. Have you ever seen me make the argument that James shoulndt take mid rangers in the clutch? Almost no one has made the argument that in the clutch in a close game that you shoulndt take the highest value shot. Please find someone here who has said that.

2. Game 7 did not come to the wire. It was a 3 possession game after 3rd quarter and it was around 11 points for most of the 4th. At one point it was a 13 point lead with 6:20 minutes left.

3. Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker, Trevor Ariza and Capela are all BAD from that range you are talking about(10-16 ft). And they were bad at them before they got to Houton(with the exception of Capela). Ariza and Gordon actually have a higher 3 point percentage for their career than from 10-16 ft. So tell me what is the adjustment? And you know what the crazy part is, you have said that you never really want Westbrook taking those shots ever but he's in fact better than all of those guys from that range for his career so......

4. And now...lets get to James Harden because I'm sure that's who you wanted to take the majority of those mid range shots. He's never shot 47% from 10-16ft in his career. Not once. He's a career 42% from that range. Which is fine. But in a game 7 where you are the lone super star and a top 10 defense is keyed in on you and you are down 9 points or more...how much mid range do you expect to help? Do you really expect James to just walk into multiple jumpers like that or for him to hit every one? They want that shot from him. It makes it easier on the defense. Especially when YOU(not me) have called the guy a mentally weak superstar.

5. With all this being said, what are the adjustments? What did you realistically expect to happen given who we were up against and missing Chris Paul.

6. And this is a bonus, when has not taking mid range ever been our main problem in the playoffs?

I dont know why I bother with this because you wont argue in good faith, you'll just tell me to look it up.

 

The series where the team went 0-27 from 3 during a stretch, maybe? Stay in denial though. Keep chucking those 3s even though it hasn't led to success. Hopefully, you don't try the same thing over and over again even if it fails in your personal life.

 

Of course you bring up that game when I have repeatedly explained in this thread of why it wasnt true. You are a moron. Like....you flat out dont know crap about basketball. LOL Imagine wanting a PJ Tucker and Trevor Ariza mid range to save lolololol.

 

I guess you Rockets fans do deserve the embarrassing Rockets flameouts every year because you guys just stubbornly believe the philosophy. I love how you brought up PJ Tucker and Ariza mid-range instead of Harden or Eric Gordon midranges. You think I'm too stupid to notice the classic "bring up the worst example to make your point" premise?

 

LOL check their mid range efficiency, they are bad too LOL. Eric Gordon has a higher 3 point percentage than he does from mid range hahaha. Harden was also the lone superstar on our team and is also not an efficient mid range shooter. LOL on the contrary, I definitely think you are stupid enough to bring up an example that doesn't prove your point.

 

Have fun with your pure analytics philosophy. I'm sure one day, it'll work for you, buddy.