Tbh this drsft class strikes me as much shallower than 2021. I dont know much about the 2nd round prospects. With the buzz around him though he might be a a late FRP.
He is a lot less skilled than Williams, but I remember how bad Kuminga looked in GLeague as well. Kids who reclassify end up looking super bad cuz thry advance a year. You're kinda hoping he turns into Dwight with a jumper.
He's actually 6'10.5 - in shoes. Very likely 6'9 or 6'9.5 barefoot. Like his wingspan too but not a fan of his IQ and instincts.
If you want help immediately Williams is the pick. If you want help 2 years down the road it’s Duren. His athleticism is off the charts.
I have done the deep dive, looked at all the scouting reports and highlights, and qualifier, I didn't watch a lick of college outside the sweet 16 Here are my thoughts: - For starters, I wanted Green last year because of the glut of bigs available in the next two drafts, and it is still looking like a sound decision. - Frankly I am just hoping we get top 4. Would suck to get 5 or lower. (So happy we are looking at worst record, would have been pissed to be 3rd worst record) - I'd take Chet at one, as I think he just looks special to me. The length, the swag, I think he could be a Gobert with a 3 point shot which is nuts. - Smith looks like a high floor guy, wouldn't feel bad if we landed him, heck, even if we picked him over Chet. - Banchero and Ivey are both interesting, but to me, I think they are both in a tier below Chet / Jabari, not only in upside, but also in fit alongside Green. - I like Ivey quite a bit in a vacuum, but seeing him alongside Green is hard, unless maybe it is at the 2/3 - Banchero looks like a less athletic Blake Griffin, I think he will be a solid NBA player, maybe a 24-8 guy in his prime. - I just don't know if Green / Banchero is good enough to build a championship team. - I would still call 2021-22 a win if we got Banchero or Ivey, despite the fit. - Getting pick 5 would be disappointing. - I like Griffin, especially the fit, but the injury history concerns me. After Yao, McGrady, Paul, I just am burnt out on injury prone guys, especially with a top pick. - Assuming we did get 5, the would probably swing on Sharpe. I think you are gambling in this tier, so might as well make the big bet. - To me, the Nets is a bit more interesting, because it is really hard to see how things will play out. - I would like to explore moving up to 8-10 if we can, using Wood, Tate, Gordon , and/or the Bucks pick. - If you did move up, I would hope to be in a position to nab Duren, who I like quite a bit, OR perhaps one of your tier 3 guys (Griffin / Sharpe) if we are lucky and they fall. - Outside of the opportunity to trade up and nab Duren, or a sliding Griffin or Sharpe, I would probably stay put at 16. - With that pick, I would be looking for either Mathurin or Eason to slide and would select one of them. (wouldn't trade up for them though) - If those two don't slide, I would be eyeing Dyson Daniels hoping he could be a future PG, or Mark Williams who I watched a bit and liked alot. - I always like the back end of the draft, specifically in draft and stash opportunities (roster spots are getting harder). If you buy a late pick and stash guys like Dieng or Kamagate, I would support that. - I would still be aiming to be the worst team in the league next year to add one more solid foundation piece with a guaranteed top five pick. - 3 last place finishes after losing a generational player is executing a rebuild to perfection. -Its early, but next years top 5 looks like there could be 2 good PGs, perhaps a generational center in Wenbamyama, or a nice SF which are all positions that looks like it will still be a position of need depending on how our draft goes. - After next year, we have some much cap space and will have a good feel for what Green and our 2022 pick will be. We can spend cap on supporting pieces and begin our ascent. - Trust the process, don't rush it, do it right, and then enjoy 8 years of good competitive basketball. https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2023-nba-mock-draft/
Unless you see Duren as a franchise player, which very few people do, that 2 years of age gap doesn't matter as much as you think for drafting a role player center. We aren't talking about 20 vs 22 here, we are talking about 18 vs 20.
It's amazing that somehow 24 and 8 is not a great thing, I don't see either Holmgren or Smith averaging that because of the lack of being able to create their own shots. I am willing to think that Holmgren could possibly have that in him, but it's all speculation, and he will never have the girth to be Gobert with a 3 point shot and even that guy would not be a true franchise guy IMO. I am drafting the best talent available regardless of how they fit with any player, suppose these guys are just flat out better than Green? Also if Green is the guy we want him to be will be able to fit with anybody, especially all of these guys. Draft the best player available, that should be the process IMO.
When I look at modern "team building", there are only a few rules that aren't negotiable. A team can have a lot of turnovers if they have a lot of assists. A team doesn't have to be an elite shooting team, but they better be elite on the glass. A team can have one really flawed player in their starting line up, but the rest of the unit better cover that flaw. The only exception is that a team better be very good at both offense (top 8-10) AND defense (top 8-10) and the team needs a top 5-10 superstar. So the only thing that I care about, is that the player the Rocket drafts has the ability to be at least an average defender. Jalen Green is likely going to end up guarding point guards in the next few years where he will be adequate, I don't think he is adequate at guarding shooting guards full time unless the Rockets are really stout at the other four spots on the floor defensively. With that in mind, all things being equal, the Rockets would get a player that is a top end defender inside and can shoot and pass....... or they get a point guard, that is a plus defender and has the size to guard shooting guards and can also operate as an outside shooter. The Rockets can make any of the top 4 players in this draft work, but some are harder to build around than others.
I think ideally the rockets would somebody who can be the focal part of the offense in crunch time if Green shows he can do that great you have 2 guys which you need to be a true contender. I think you can supplement defense by other draft pics trades and FA, I want to maximize the search to get those guys who can get buckets in crunchtime.
The "fastest" rebuild for the Rockets through this draft would probably be to take Chet or Smith at the top of the draft and then with the Nets pick look at a forward if the Rockets take Chet.... or a center if the Rockets take Smith. I am not saying the Rockets should draft for need, but I think they likely will with the NETS pick. Sengun Holmgren Sochan Green Porter That is a line up that the Rockets could go with if they get a top 2 pick and the Nets pick..... I don't know that team really would end up being the starting 5 down the road, as I am not sure Sengun and Porter are long time starters and I see Sochan as more of a 4 than a 3. The Rockets will likely have either Sochan or Kendall Brown still on the board when they pick.... both are athletic, defensive minded forwards that would fit well with the Rockets..... there will also be several post players available at that pick, with Mark Williams, Walker Kessler, Kamagate and Koloko available..... I don't think the Rockets will want a traditional center, I think they will want someone more like Robert Williams to play that spot....
I would usually agree with you, but I think it is really hard to add defense around those guys........ the reason I like Ivey is that I think he can be both a good defender and a bucket maker. Banchero can get buckets, but I am worried about getting players good enough on the defensive side to cover for Banchero and Green. If the Rockets had Barnes or Mobley instead or Green, I would be less concerned.
We just have different team building philosophies, I think being able to get buckets in crunch time is the hardest thing to find high level guys that can do it. I think its easier to find defensive guys and coaching to get enough defense. I think if you find the true franchise type guy, they will be able to play defense adequately, and you can build around. This is not to say I will disregard defense totally, I just think effort and scheme plays a big role.
Don't think you need to worry about Jabari vs Paolo when it comes to scoring in clutch. Both averaged about 17 pts in lone season in college. Both were #1 scoring options for their teams. But Paolo had ball more. And of the 2, Jabari is projected to be better scorer in NBA. More points, more rebounds, steals, blocks. Banchero averages 1 more assist and half a foul less. Jabari also is better in every advanced stat vs Banchero. 3P%, FT%, TS%, EFG%, USG%, TOV, PER, WS, ORTG, DRTG, BPM https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=jabari-smith--paolo-banchero
QUOTE="jiggyfly, post: 14040374, member: 60348"]We just have different team building philosophies, I think being able to get buckets in crunch time is the hardest thing to find high level guys that can do it. I think its easier to find defensive guys and coaching to get enough defense. I think if you find the true franchise type guy, they will be able to play defense adequately, and you can build around. This is not to say I will disregard defense totally, I just think effort and scheme plays a big role.[/QUOTE] I am with you Jiggy. Championship squads even in modern days have the following 1) a 1a players (you main guy for crunchtime), your Batman. 2) a 1b player - Your Batman’s robin, this guy gets you buckets in crunch time when the defense is focus on on your Batman or your Batman is cold 3) a Junkyard dog - He does your dirty work. This guy is usually going to be your opponents best players 4) A bench commander, this guy is the leader of your second unit. 5) Role players - did where FA and draft picks start to shine to fill out the roster ‘This is why I am not in love with taking Chet as our top pick. I feel like for what we want him for, we can find elsewhere in the draft or FA. Defense and working the paint. He doesn’t wow me..
I know he has a long wingspan, but has Ivey shown anything else to indicate his horrendous defense at the college level will significantly (and more important, immediately) improve at the NBA level? Historically, I can’t really think of or find any examples of guards who were poor defenders at the college level but who became plus defenders at the NBA level. Im not saying we should pass on him if he’s the best available, but if we take him, we should expect that our perimeter D will suffer if he starts with Green (assuming he replaces Scoot or Tate).
We don't have to gain our defensive identity or defensive piece exclusively through the top of the draft.
down the road Garuba starting with Paolo and getting maybe a more traditional PG next draft (there appears to be a glut of them) and maybe Sengun/Christopher/KPJ running the bench would be pretty epic. PG 2013 pick SG Green SF Martin or Nets pick/Bucks pick PF Paolo C Garuba Bench KPJ/Christ/Sengun That is 9-10 players. With a possibility of being condensed down to less players and a higher 2013 pick or trade package with Nets picks to bring in a big named hopefully youngish player. This team looks like it will be super stacked starting the 2023-2024 season.
