well if ming and williams are surefire 1 and 2, then they will have to be there until at least 4. also, if memphis isn't top 2, i would guess they would have battier at SF and not go that direction so they are pushed down one more spot. also, correct if i am misunderstanding the long term implications here, but with steve signing an extension the rockets will be over the cap correct. therefore, while rice's $9 million looks nasty, there's nothing it effectively does since we are already over the cap and any S&T would just replace his salary. are there some salaries we are losing soon that if combined with losing rice's would get us under the cap to make any other moves. as far as i'm concerned, if need be let rice ride the pine for two years then take the 9 million off, but then again we'll have to sign eddie around then and we'll be over the cap again so as has been stated on this board before we're pretty much over the cap for the foreseeable future so there's no reason to make moves with the cap in mind is there. i say that b/c y'all were saying odom w/ rice or rashard w/o rice. well to me, simply take whoever you think is the better player b/c rices contract is a moot point anyway. as for who better fits our team, i don't know. in the current offensive system, i would say rashard even if i thought odom was better all around.
Lewis isn't worth #5. We couldn't send Rice because the salaries (given that Lewis will have to be a sign-and-trade) would be too far off. Taylor won't go because a torn achillies is a LOT worse than a separated shoulder and requires a much more iffy comeback. I, honestlty, could see a re-signed KT plus the #15 for Lewis. That is probably what Seattle would want anyway. It fills a need for us plus it allows us to keep our first pick in the draft. Also, we have a $4million+ veteran exception available. The combination of a KT+15 trade, our #5 (or 3, 2 or 1) pick and that exception could net us several quality players.
Agree with NJR. The thing is, more and more, I feel comfortable that the two picks will net us great and appropriate/needed talent for both the SF and "5" spots. This is definitely a big man's draft. I must say that looking at Dallas make me more interested in the future potential of a shooting big man than let say a Marcus. For our team we have to have 5's that can score. I feel reasonably good about getting scoring from that spot for 48 mins if Cato, Collier, MoT and EG man that spot. Hardly can this be called a desperate situation if you look at what Portland, Utah, NJ, Seattle, Suns, Denver, Kings and others play at that spot. As a result, with #15, we just need to add a sizable (potential) scorer to that mix. Amare, Nene, Marcus, Ely, Jennings, and Nikoloz. Alternatively we could go after Marc Jackson for #15. Of course with #5, the sky is the limit, especially if Butler, Woods or Gooden are there.
Imagine: We get 1# choice in draft, take Ming and with Lewis for KT and 15# we have champions' line-up like this: PG- Francis SG- Mobley SF- Lewis PF- Griffin C- Ming
Jeff, can you give me five players you would like the team to take with the exceptions. That would let me feel more comfortable with giving up KT. And with your suggestion, does it mean we would still pick a SF, given Lewis is now on the team.
Anyone remember Carl Herrera and his shoulders? He was never the same after injuring one of them, and had recurring problems that plagued him in San Antonio. Maybe I'm off base here, but should we start looking more closely at how badly Lewis is hurt? We don't want another Rice situation.
If we are trading KT and #15, why not target Miami or Pheonix? Get their pick instead of getting Lewis. It is likely to get us as good a talent as Lewis without the financial hit.
For all you posters who want Odom. I have 3 names for you. J Lucas M Wiggins L Loyd Ring a bell? You think Cato is a liability? Wait until Odom starts passing out doobie snacks to Mo T and the boys. Can you say cancer?
I haven't really looked over the free agent lists so I won't comment so much on individual players as on position. In a perfect world... We get the #1 pick and draft Ming. We trade the #15 plus KT for Lewis (or another player in that category - Wells?). We then use the exception on a defensive-minded swing man to play 2/3 and split time behind Mobley and Lewis. Assuming we don't land the #1 pick... We use the #5 on an athletic, defensive-minded swing man (2/3) or possibly even trade down a spot or two (if possible) to get the same thing while getting a future pick in the process. We trade the #15 plus KT for Lewis (or another player in that category - Wells? - p.s. I'm not a fan of Odom as a person - I'm worried that his problems are greater than most of us realize). We then use the exception on a defensive-minded big man (4/5) to split time with Cato. I think that you have to assume that Griffin and Taylor will share time at the 4 and even put in occassional minutes at the 5. If Taylor can come back from his injury strong, the two of them could make a strong 4/5 tandem. Last year, prior to Mo's injury, the Rockets were said to be VERY high on the idea of playing a Taylor/Griffin/Mobley/Francis/Norris combination. I don't think that has changed. I like KT a LOT. The thing is that he is our BEST trade baid as it stands. Moving him is easiest and will very likely bring the most in return given his strong year. Unless you think he is going to be our starting PF for the next 5 or 6 years and would be able to beat out Griffin and Taylor, both of whom will very likely be ahead of him on the depth chart by training camp, you just don't sign him long-term. It wouldn't make any sense. I think also that KT presents offensive scheme problems because, like Mobley and Francis, he is primarily a dominant one-on-one player. If we get someone like Lewis, assuming Griffin improves and Taylor returns, KT's one-on-one game is going to be minimized significantly. I don't particularly care to trade him, but I think he will bring us the most options as trade bait. We wouldn't get anything for Rice or Taylor in trade because of their injuries and we aren't likely to trade Griffin which means we have an over-abundance of PF's. KT is a good player but moving him could free up space on bench AND bring a decent player in return.
KT is not a Free Agent. The 2002 - 2003 year will be the fourth year option of his rookie scale contract. This summer, the Rockets have the option to extend him, just as they have the option to extend Francis. KT's fourth year salary will be approximately $1.4 million. The first year of the rookie scale contract will pay the 15th pick approximately $1.03million. So, trading KT and the 15th pick would send out approximately $2.5 million in salary, which probably would not be enough salary to bring back Lewis in a S&T. However, before the draft, KT for Kirilenko would work straight up!!! I really like Kirilenko's defense and believe that his offense will eventually come.
Bay Rock-Only problem is, The Jazz really like AK47 as well. Remember, if we're trading to acquire Lewis, it's via sign and trade. A top 5 pick is not what you give up in a sign and trade deal (at least not on purpose). Since free agency comes after the draft, it couldn't happen anyway-we couldn't negotiate with Seattle and "pick" for them. Look at the precedent-we got a #1 and a #2 in exchange for Olajuwon, Toronto got just a #1 for TMac, Detroit got a couple of then bench players/fringe starters (Atkins and Wallace) for Hill. A nice scenario would be Rashard saying he wants to come to Houston, and then Payton asking for a trade as a result of it. Then, I would think KT+Moochie (replacement PG) plus a 2nd rounder, or the Chicago obligation would be plenty.
What is everyone's deal with worrying about the cap? When Francis re-signs, we will be well over the cap anyway. There is no difference in begin 5 mill over and 15 mill over. You are over the cap... Unless you are Les Alexander, it shouldn't matter how much Rashard will make.
Kidrock, are you serious? That is the part of the picture that so many of us dreams forget about. If the financial aspects are ever considered a good half of the ideas put forward here would not make it.
Jeff, the reason I ask for names is for me to be able to fully see the wisdom (or folly) in the suggestion of going for a veteran. Last off-season the team was said to have cap room. That room was used last year on Rice and MoT for the most part. The team salary bill this year was $49M, of which $8M went to Rice and $6M+ went to MoT. When you include Cato's $6M+, the team have $20M going to players who are not among the team's best four players, who are Wink, Mobes, KT and EG. The fact that by the end of next season, Wink and KT will be up for big raises, do not help the situation. What does this all mean? It means that we just cannot decide to go out and get Lewis, another big salary. I would only trade for Lewis if it meant we are giving up Rice, MoT or Cato and we all know that would not happen. Well why not trade KT and the #15 for Lewis? First of all, KT has to be considered a kind of insurance until we know what is happening with MoT and EG's development. If I was Les and CD, I would not extend any contracts until way into the season when we would be alot more informed about MoT and Rice. The line would be that the team did not make the playoffs and is not therefore in a position to make any additional commitments at this time. Of course you talk and negotiate but no decisions until after the all star game. The exit of Willis and Walt, I think, creates room of $8M. Close to $5M of that would be used for the two draft picks and the extension of contracts for Langhi, Torres and Brown. The logic here is that the team has alot of money tied up in, to date, relatively non-productive players; so there is the need to have some modestly paid role players. I prefer that route than for the team to go after a veteran with its exceptions. As it is I do not know where that veteran, to be paid $4M+, would get minutes from to contribute. Last year when we had a veteran like Willis, he rightfully did not get the minutes. If you look at all the positions, I do not see the need to bring in this "veteran". 5: Cato is highly paid and will not be left of the bench. The team has to now commit time to Collier. So I do not see a place for a veteran here, especially if you consider that both EG and MoT will put in some time here to get them minutes, among other reasons. If we got a 5 in the draft, the need for a veteran here is non-existent. 4: MoT would slowly be worked back into the thick of things. EG will be expected to take up the slack here. Tmo has shown nothing to suggest that the upcoming season should be one where he on the IR. KT, if not traded would also be expected to play some 4. 3. Rice, if heathly has to play and play big time for his $8M. The rookie, let say Woods, would have to get some exposure. He could very well be expected to be used like Richard Jefferson was used in NJ as a rookie SF, off the bench. Based on what the team can pay DL and the contribution he can make, I would go with DL instead of any veteran. The backcourt have no place for a veteran, also, especially when you consider both Woods and Rice could play in the backcourt. Why would we want another vet anyway when you have MoT, Rice, Cato, Mobes, Moochie, Wink and KT. I know some of these guys are young but I do not see a veteran making anymore of an impact than Rice, Willis and Walt were able to make this year. That is why I asked for name of potential vets. Back to the finance issues. The team will not be able to give both Wink and KT big raises, so one will have to go. KT is obviously the man. By gone, I do not mean that another big salary is coming back, in return. Earlier I said we should not trade KT because of insurance. But if the team is aware, based on information it has, that the risk is not that substantial and they can survive without KT, then trade him. I would use KT, #15 and even 2 2nds to trade up to Miami or Pheonix. These two teams do not have a KT on their team. Suns has Marion but Outlaw is woefully inadequate. The Heat's Brian Grant average under 9 pts per game. Miami is also desperate for help and would probably respond to our offer. If they do, then we would draft Woods/Butler and Wilcox/Amare. Even if we are not able to make that trade the talent available at #15 will be pretty good. It would be nice if these rookies contribute but the team has to use the talent is has, some of which are highly paid. Without KT, the rotation still looks like this: Cato, MoT, Rice, Francis, Mobes, Collier, EG, Tmo, Moochie and Torres. With someone like Woods added to that core, the team should be fine.
The problem is, DearRock, that you HAVE to extend Francis and/or KT during the summer. Their is a deadline (October 1???) that if you don't re-sign them by that point, you cannot do it until after they become free agents the next summer. They would have to commit to one or both of them long term or risk losing them the following summer. Personally, I agree with the Rice and Cato issues. They are paid too much for what they deliver. However, I could live with Cato being paid that much if he split time with another center. Rice, we are stuck with until his contract is up. That's just reality. I see Taylor as a benefit rather than a liability. People have a tendency to write-off guys who have injuries when they go down because of the out-of-sight-out-of-mind syndrome. Frankly, I see him as a significant rotation player to both split time with and share the floor with Griffin. Griffin, in my mind, is at least another season away from a significant breakout. He needs bulk and a lot of training on the offensive end. One summer won't be enough. I just see us as having three significant needs (in no particular order): 1. Small forward - We have a GAPING hole at SF even if Rice is healthy. That should be our biggest concern. 2. Center - Not that Cato can't cover the center position for stretches, but he will have to develop significantly if he is to occupy that position on a night-in-night-out basis. If we can't get Ming (best case), we should be concerned with finding a rebounding shot blocker in the post. We don't necessarily have to have scoring, but we need an intimidator. 3. Swingman - We need another Mario Elie type - a guy who doesn't need to start but can and who can play the 2 or the 3. Someone who can primarily defend but score a bit when needed. To me, if we can't get Ming, we address issue 1 and 3 through the draft and/or a trade and issue 2 through free agency or a trade.
Thanks to NIKEstrad I think I am beginning to see the light. 1) 1st round draft picks immediately count against the cap, but have $0 value in a trade as only their rights can be traded until signed. 2) Once signed, a 1st round pick can not be traded until the later of 3 months or December 15th. 3) The Rockets are over the cap, so only an S&T could get Rashard. 4) Player contracts will expire July 1st and there is a signing moratorium until around July 18th. The Rockets could tempt the Sonics to S&T by including unsigned 1st round rights, but the pick(s) would have to be exactly what the Sonics wanted. 5) An extension of #4 is that for an S&T, the Sonics will have to receive contracts from the Rockets equalling Rashard's new contract. Given a range of 7m to 10m, the easiest matches are Rice, MoT, or Cato + Moochie. There is no guarantee the Sonics want any part of these contracts. (Not 100% sure on the next parts) 6) A draft day trade between the Sonics and Rockets could only occur if the contracts exchanged where almost equal in value. Rashards current contract is $4.4m (but with a Player Option). 7) Even if it were possible to match Lewis' current contract for a draft day trade, it would not be a good business decision by the Rockets because they would have given up picks and players to gain Rashard who still has a player option (on July 1) and could use that as a threat to get a Max deal from the Rockets. The more I think through this, the less likley I see Rashard OR Odom ($3.6m/qualifying offer next summer) coming to the Rocks. At some point, Rashard will have to step up and say to Seattle management "I want to go to Houston..get it done". And I just don't see this happening. Woods and Butler are starting to look better all the time. Now if only Nene, Borchardt, Ely, Marcus, or Stoudamire would have good Rockets workouts and fall to 15.
Trade #15 and Rice for him. But I don't think he's quite worth a #5 pick. Besides, we sucked real hard to get #5. I mean, did you see how CATO just looks like a freakin fan on the court. I think Jack & Spike do more for Lakers and Knicks.
