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NH Primary

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by basso, Jan 26, 2004.

  1. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    For VP?

    Clark- for the "gravitas" of NATO Supreme Commander, Vietnam war hero (doesn't hurt to have another), and he's from the South... even if he doesn't sound like it. Downside- apparently looks weird to some Democrats. ;)

    Edwards- because he's young and not bad looking... good for the second spot. He's also from the South, even sounds like it. (a little too much for my ear) Should be a good debater. He's a trial lawyer. Downside- he's a trial lawyer. That is already being set up by Rove and company, through their mouthpiece, Bush, by having Bush campaign against "frivolous lawsuits" as part of his stump speech. A sudden addition. (how coincidental... and yes, I know he carried on about it in Texas as Governor. That doesn't change why I think he's running with it now)

    Dean- After listening to his speech tonight, I'd like him on the ticket, believe it or not. Could really be an asset as a VP candidate, with his organization and appeal to young voters. Downside- he's from the Northeast and he suffers from his Iowa meltdown... fair or not.

    Lieberman- You've got to be kidding!
     
  2. Troy McClure

    Troy McClure Member

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    John Kerry and John Edwards

    John Kerry and Bob Graham

    John Kerry and NM Gov. Bill Richardson ( I know he said hes not )

    John Kerry and Sen. John Breaux

    and to shake things up a bit

    John Kerry and Harold Ford

    for edwards...

    John Edwards and John Kerry

    John Edwards and Bob Kerrey

    John Edwards and Bob Graham

    John Edwards and Wesley Clark

    John Edwards and Dick Gephardt

    for Dean....

    Howard Dean and God, because the only way he gets the nomination , let alone the presidency, is by a miracle from heaven.
     
  3. serious black

    serious black Member

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    edwards as kerry's vp
    gephardt as edwards' vp
     
  4. wrath_of_khan

    wrath_of_khan Member

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    How about Kerry and Dianne Feinstein?

    I know -- they don't need a Californian on the ticket to win it, but having a moderate woman on the ticket could be interesting.

    I will admit that I do like the sound of:

    Kerry/Graham

    and even

    Kerry/Edwards

    But it usually doesn't come down to the nominee and a failed Presidential candidate.

    Evan Bayh will get a hard look too, I'll bet (damn DLCers).
     
    #104 wrath_of_khan, Jan 27, 2004
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2004
  5. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    Kerry-Edwards seems to be the concensus ticket of the day. One good thing about this is that, if Edwards sticks to his game of attacking issues but carefully avoiding anything that can be taken as negative campaigning, the GOP has to be gentle with him (and by extension the ticket) to avoid backlash. The awkward thing about it is that the VP candidate is traditionally the hatchet man -- the one who says the brutal stuff about the other guys so the top dog doesn't have to get his hands so dirty. Even though I think Edwards is imminently capable of that, it's at odds with the 'positive campaigning' that's got him where he is. Let's not forget how badly Lieberman fell down on this important job.

    serious black made a strong case for Graham not so long ago and I totally agree with it. I was watching some kind of roundtable the other day and someone asked if the Dem could win Florida. The answer was not likely but with Graham on the ticket it's totally in play. Edwards-Graham makes a lot of sense to me.

    Dean as VP? No way. First, he wouldn't want it and wouldn't perform well as a number two. Second, the number one function of a VP is to make the electorate comfortable and that's Dean's biggest weakness.

    Richardson would be b****in. New Mexico's a battleground state and putting a Latino on the ticket for the first time ever would be huge and it would translate into real votes everywhere there's a large Latino population. I know it's a whole other ballgame, but can anyone handicap Richardson's impact on Florida's Cuban vote?

    Bob Kerrey's got trouble with that incident in Vietnam. He's been awfully quiet since that story grew legs. I doubt he wants to talk about it any more than he has to.

    Clark makes great sense on paper, but I'm no more convinced by him as a VP candidate than I am with him at the top of the ticket. Either way, he's gotta campaign and he's gotta debate. So far, he's lousy at both. I still say he'd be excellent as Sec. of State or Defense. He is, after all, smarter than hell even though you wouldn't know it from the campaign.

    Feinstein or Ann Richards. Discuss.

    And, of course, I left one guy out. Who do you guys think Bush should tap as his running mate? A lot of people are looking at Giulianni, but Rice would be strong too.

    My picks:

    Kerry-Edwards
    Edwards-Graham
    Dean-Gephardt (he wouldn't take it, but he'd be Dean's best bet)
    Clark-???
    Lieberman-Zell Miller
    Bush-Giulliani
     
  6. wrath_of_khan

    wrath_of_khan Member

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    Clark in a VP debate = Stockdale '92
     
  7. Woofer

    Woofer Member

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  8. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    wrath: I took too long and let you get Feinstein in first. p.s. Email me. Not at my old address. At the one in my profile.
     
  9. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Ann Richards... why not? She'd be great! About as Southern and Texan as anyone could think of... appeals to the South and West with an accent you could cut with a knife. An incredible speaker, with a wonderfully dry and sardonic wit that brims with warmth and intelligence. And make no bones about being a Liberal, in the finest sense of the word. Anyone with the guts to put her on the ticket would be assured of enormous media coverage, which Richards is totally relaxed with. I know, it would be unlikely, but I would be exited about it. Ann Richards would have a huge number of women looking at the ticket, and that helps Kerry. She would demolish Cheney or Rice... the likely Bush VP's, in a debate.

    I've met her a couple of times, my wife several, and it was always a kick. Definitely a dark horse.
     
  10. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    calpundit
     
  11. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    Batman--

    Clark will be in ABQ tomorrow, 2:30 pm. at American Legion Post 99, 540 Louisiana Ave NE, just south of Lomas. He'll be in Santa Fe on Friday evening and Las Cruces on Saturday. Mrs. rimrocker will probably go to the Santa Fe event with daughter number 1. I'll be playing Mr. Mom with daughter number two.

    Tomorrow, he plans on hitting four different states, starting in SC.

    First thoughts on NH...

    It's only New Hampshire, but it does have the big mo for Kerry. IMHO, Kerry needs to make sure he takes out Dean ASAP. If he has to give up on SC and OK to make sure Dean doesn't get a win, then that should be his priority. If he does that, he can come back and focus on the stronger of Clark/Edwards who will still be weak compared to Kerry.

    Dean needs wins. If he doesn't get one next Tuesday, I think he is truly done.

    Edwards has to have SC or he has to leave. He's painted himself into a corner with the whole nice guy deal... he has no way to go negative, especially since he is probably the favorite in the VP primary.

    Clark has to have OK. He has a respectable org. in Nm and is polling well in AZ, but I think it will be tough for him to finish first in either.

    Maybe Clark or Edwards can parlay a couple of seconds into the next round, but I doubt it.

    I think there will be someone besides Kerry who wins on Tuesday. I don't think it will be Dean.

    This is fun.
     
  12. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    I forgot to add that Lieberman is delusional.
     
  13. Batman Jones

    Batman Jones Member

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    I'll try to make the Clark thing tomorrow. Thanks for the heads up. What does your wife do for Clark?

    Two latest polls from Arizona vary pretty wildly, on a number of points. American Research Group's survey from 1/23-25 has Kerry 24, Clark 21, Edwards 15, Dean 10, Lieberman 7, Undecided 23. Only one day later, Survey USA (1/24-26) has Kerry 30, Clark 24, Dean 23, Lieberman 10, Edwards 7, Undecided 2. Either someone's way off or that's a dramatic shift.

    No polls out of NM in forever.

    ARG has Clark losing 9 points over the last few days in OK and Edwards losing 5. As of 1/23-25 it's Clark 23, Edwards 18, Kerry 17, Lieberman 10, Dean 8. 22% undecided. If Kerry gets a NH bump here, it's anybody's race.

    And Survey USA has Edwards surging in SC as of the 24th-26th: Edwards 32, Clark 17, Dean 16, Kerry 13, Sharpton 10, Lieberman 5 (ha), Undecided 5. I have to believe anyone but Edwards is running for second there and the time for moral victories is over. If I'm anybody but Edwards and Kerry (who might as well compete everywhere with the new money and establishment boost he's going to get now), I'm going elsewhere.

    Of course, Lieberman could rent an apartment there, bump up to 6% once again "exceeding expectations," claim "Joementum" (ohmiland, what a dork) and head on to Michigan where he doesn't even register in the polls. Is he even on the ballot there? If not, five write-in votes would be proof everything's going his way.

    Anybody think Gephardt's endorsing before Missouri? If he does, it's the most valuable endorsement of the season.
     
  14. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    She's a Precinct Captain and has written a couple of little campaign tracts aimed at the SW.

    Further thoughts...

    I think last night secured a spot on the ticket for Kerry because...

    1. He's the good bet to be the nominee.

    2. In a similar good bet, it's pretty clear Dean will not be the nominee. Nor will he be anyone's choice for VP.

    3. If Clark or Edwards catch lightning and somehow end up being the nominee, they pick Kerry as VP because Kerry will be the only one left standing who opted out of the Campaign Finance System. So, he would be the VP in a wink-wink deal but stay in the primary race up until the convention. That way, Clark or Edwards could take the Fed matching money while all the donations went to Kerry. They would catch some bad PR over it initially, but it would help dramatically in the long run by cutting into Bush's cash advantage and allowing the Dems to hit back between March and August. If Kerry's the nominee, he raises as much as he can and Dems lose out on the Fed matching funds.

    Either way, we won't be in as bad a shape as we have been in some past elections and I think it's going to be tough for the GOP to buy away people's ideas that this administration is bad news.

    I'm looking forward to the Fall.
     
  15. basso

    basso Member
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    i'm really surprised by the incredible animus Lieberman inspires in some here. can you explain it to me? why do you care if he stays in the race, do you really think he's hurting anyone, Clark, Dean, Kerry? is it just that he's ostensibly more to the right that some of the others, although The American Conservative Union ranks Kerry and Lieberman the same? i really don't understand...

    also, interesting that Dean and Clark (and Lieberman) seem to inspire the most passion on this board, although Kerry and Edwards seem the more likely nominees.
     
  16. MacBeth

    MacBeth Member

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    Because he routinely portrays all the other candidates in the same manner a Republican would.
     
  17. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Member

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    Lieberman is a flaming douchebag.
     
  18. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    It came to a head last night when Joe said he finished in a three-way tie for third when he actually finished a clear fifth. He also said he was part of a "movement," which is a clear sign that you are running for yourself and not for the good of the party or the country. I was also hoping Joe, Dennis, and the Rev. would be out by now so we could have good debates between the remainders and not have to pretend that any of those three are serious candidates. Oh well... as Will Rogers said, "I belong to no organized party. I'm a Democrat."

    There's fascination with Dean because of where he was and where he finds himself. The Clark stuff, I think, comes mostly from Batman, who finds him slightly creepy and me because my wife's involved with the campaign. Kerry and Edwards have had quite a few posts written about them... see my above post on Kerry.
     
  19. basso

    basso Member
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    ahhhhh, i get it now...
     
  20. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    By the way, here are the results from the other primary last night...

    Bush 57,670
    Kerry 835
    Dean 633
    Clark 545
    Edwards 541

    Over 2,500 registered Republicans WROTE IN a Democrat.
     

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