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Neat adjusted +/- charts ...

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by durvasa, Jan 28, 2012.

  1. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    He would have been top 10 2005-2008. It seems to confirm that he has lost a step in the past couple of years with the Rockets but still a solid defender. Let the Heat have the washed up Shane. :grin:

    Oh, of course Kwame would look for any chance to diss Battier. :rolleyes:
     
  2. francis 4 prez

    francis 4 prez Contributing Member

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    what's even less surprising to me is that rudy gay is at -0.1 this season, almost exactly average.

    in fact, here is rudy's chart.

    [​IMG]

    unbelievably consistent and unbelievably average once again. stays within a 2 point range right around 0 for 6 straight years! even breaking it down to offense and defense he never changes and never moves away from 0. it's uncanny. if i had made this chart up i would have put more variation in there just to make it look realistic.


    edit: and shane has beaten gay every year and is doing it again this year 1.9 to -0.1. we sure hoodwinked the grizzlies on that trade. even got rid of swift's contract.
     
    #22 francis 4 prez, Jan 28, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2012
  3. francis 4 prez

    francis 4 prez Contributing Member

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    goran dragic and jordan hill in the bottom 8 this year. and both had almost the same numbers last year. not good.


    and jj hickson is 2nd to last this year and that's with a big improvement. this is his first year above the -5 line.
     
  4. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Battier's defense was stout!

    LOL @ Rudy Gay
     
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Guys, please don't make this a Battier vs. Gay thread.

    Battier had his time. Gay is a very nice player now. Let's leave it at that.
     
    #25 durvasa, Jan 28, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2012
  6. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Nene way up there on D.

    Would have been nice to combine his D with Pau's O. :(
     
  7. Kwame

    Kwame Contributing Member

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    I know Udoka didn't play much last year for SAS, but noticed him as a top 20 defender on that data set. When I compared Udoka to Battier amongst others, most, with the notable exceptions of ClutchCityReturns and GATER, either directly or indirectly dismissed the comparison:

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=151317

    I thought they were comparable, but this particular data set confirms that Udoka was better than Battier, defensively at least.
     
  8. francis 4 prez

    francis 4 prez Contributing Member

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    agreed. but to be fair, battier/gay is pretty much the locus of the clutchfans advanced stats experience so it has to be mentioned at least once in every thread.
     
  9. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Maybe, but that thread was after the 2008 season. So a more fair comparison, if you want to critique people's assessment back then, would be to compare their defensive metrics at that time.

    Also, we should also probably take into account how often these players actually played. Battier was playing 30 minutes a night. Udoka played less than 20 minutes a night, save one season. And the last 3 years, he had a very reduced role minutes-wise, so I'd take his defensive stats with a grain of salt.
     
  10. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

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    I like this more than some of the other "advanced" metrics. I find that most avid fans tend to overrate off the ball high percentage scorers and extremely underrate defensive impact, and the lack of. There's a tendency to lump everyone who isn't a great defender in together as bad defenders. There's a huge difference between awful and average defense. My "eyes" tend to agree more with typical conclusions found from the APM numbers because it takes into account any positive contributions to the offense not just points, assists, or rebounds.

    Kevin Love's numbers don't really surprise me. He's not a good defensive player and while he does score it isn't in such a way that you can just give him the ball every play and let him go to work. Players with that ability help their offense much more because the defenses are forced to over compensate and everyone gets easier opportunities. Love sort of takes what the defense gives him while others can get the defense to react to them. And, people say it all the time but, how good can the Love/Rubio combo really be when their record is so bad. He's a very good player. It's just that his stats may lead people to believe he's much better than he really is. He just doesn't have a Moses Malone or Dwight Howard type of impact.

    Durvasa,

    Does anyone have the four factors breakdown of APM you posted here a while back? That was probably my favorite stat.
     
  11. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Unfortunately, the guy who used to run that site that had those numbers (Joe Sill) now works for an NBA team I believe. I'm not aware of them being published elsewhere. If I come across it, I'll let you know.
     
  12. sealclubber1016

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    People will acknowledge how accurate these charts seem to be.

    The defensively maligned Chase Budinger is a neutral defensive player.


    But I guess when it comes to him people will just say they trust their eyes not facts.
     
  13. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Below, I combined the DRAPM for last season with another defensive stat computed as part of the Expected Value rating which I'll refer to as DefEV. DefEV was determined by manually tracking defensive plays. Because it was done manually by one guy, he only provided ratings for a relatively smaller pool of players last year (87 players) which can be found here. For all the games he watched, he tracked defensive responsibility based on shooting against, foul shots earned against, charges, steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding. More discussion on this methodology can be found here.

    By averaging DefEV and DRAPM, I can bring together the data on individual defensive play and also defensive impact on scoreboard. Hopefully, the results are ratings that we can have more confidence in. Subjectively, they make a lot of sense. One notable player who's rating I was surprised with was Nicholas Batum. He's known as a defender, and yet he fares very poorly here. Hollinger said he also had one of the worst PPP-against ratings as tracked by Synergy. Maybe those who watch the Blazers more regularly can comment.

    <style type="text/css">
    table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #B90D0D; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style>
    <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr style="background-color: #B90D0D; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;"><th>rank</th><th>Player</th><th>Team </th><th>Pos </th><th>Def </th><th>DRAPM</th><th>NET</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>rank</th><th>Player</th><th>Team </th><th>Pos </th><th>Def </th><th>DRAPM</th><th>NET</th></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>Garnett</td><td>Bos </td><td>2408</td><td>+3.3</td><td>+5.3</td><td>+4.3</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>45</td><td>Fisher</td><td>LAL </td><td>2874</td><td>0.0</td><td>+0.2</td><td>+0.1</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Howard</td><td>Orl </td><td>1777</td><td>+4.8</td><td>+3.8</td><td>+4.3</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>46</td><td>Johnson</td><td>Atl </td><td>1332</td><td>-2.3</td><td>+2.4</td><td>+0.1</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Duncan</td><td>Sas </td><td>1248</td><td>+2.3</td><td>+3.7</td><td>+3.0</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>47</td><td>Barnes</td><td>Orl/LAL </td><td>967</td><td>+0.8</td><td>-0.7</td><td>+0.1</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>James</td><td>Mia </td><td>2192</td><td>+3.6</td><td>+2.4</td><td>+3.0</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>48</td><td>Blake</td><td>LAL </td><td>1022</td><td>+0.2</td><td>-0.2</td><td>0.0</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>T. Allen</td><td>Bos/Mem </td><td>894</td><td>+2.3</td><td>+2.9</td><td>+2.6</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>49</td><td>Fields</td><td>Nyk </td><td>934</td><td>+1.1</td><td>-1.1</td><td>0.0</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>T. Chandler</td><td>Dal </td><td>970</td><td>+2.3</td><td>+2.7</td><td>+2.5</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>50</td><td>Marion</td><td>Dal </td><td>1176</td><td>-0.4</td><td>+0.3</td><td>-0.1</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Perkins</td><td>Bos/Okc </td><td>1574</td><td>+2.9</td><td>+1.7</td><td>+2.3</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>51</td><td>Miles</td><td>Uta </td><td>1093</td><td>-1.7</td><td>+1.3</td><td>-0.2</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Josh Smith</td><td>Atl </td><td>1246</td><td>+0.7</td><td>+3.6</td><td>+2.2</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>52</td><td>Rose</td><td>Chi </td><td>1599</td><td>-0.6</td><td>+0.2</td><td>-0.2</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Kidd</td><td>Dal </td><td>1400</td><td>+3.0</td><td>+1.3</td><td>+2.2</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>53</td><td>Felton</td><td>Cha/Nyk/Den </td><td>929</td><td>-0.2</td><td>-0.2</td><td>-0.2</td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>Salmons</td><td>Mil </td><td>824</td><td>+1.9</td><td>+2.3</td><td>+2.1</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>54</td><td>Chalmers</td><td>Mia </td><td>1058</td><td>-1.4</td><td>+0.9</td><td>-0.3</td></tr> <tr><td>11</td><td>Deng</td><td>Chi </td><td>1628</td><td>+0.2</td><td>+3.9</td><td>+2.1</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>55</td><td>Matthews</td><td>Uta/Por </td><td>1404</td><td>+0.2</td><td>-0.7</td><td>-0.3</td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>Bynum</td><td>LAL </td><td>2431</td><td>+2.1</td><td>+1.9</td><td>+2.0</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>56</td><td>Bryant</td><td>LAL </td><td>3439</td><td>+0.4</td><td>-0.9</td><td>-0.3</td></tr> <tr><td>13</td><td>Gortat</td><td>Pho </td><td>1034</td><td>+3.7</td><td>+0.2</td><td>+2.0</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>57</td><td>Harden</td><td>Okc </td><td>837</td><td>-0.1</td><td>-0.6</td><td>-0.4</td></tr> <tr><td>14</td><td>Ginobili</td><td>Sas </td><td>1309</td><td>+1.9</td><td>+1.8</td><td>+1.9</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>58</td><td>McDyess</td><td>Sas </td><td>863</td><td>-2.0</td><td>+1.2</td><td>-0.4</td></tr> <tr><td>15</td><td>Noah</td><td>Chi </td><td>908</td><td>+3.2</td><td>+0.5</td><td>+1.9</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>59</td><td>Anthony</td><td>Den/Nyk </td><td>1423</td><td>+0.2</td><td>-1.1</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>16</td><td>Lewis</td><td>Orl/Was </td><td>975</td><td>+2.1</td><td>+1.2</td><td>+1.7</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>60</td><td>Brown</td><td>LAL </td><td>1573</td><td>-0.5</td><td>-0.5</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>17</td><td>Bosh</td><td>Mia </td><td>1141</td><td>+0.3</td><td>+2.9</td><td>+1.6</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>61</td><td>Carter</td><td>Orl/Pho </td><td>1400</td><td>-2.2</td><td>+1.2</td><td>-0.5</td></tr> <tr><td>18</td><td>Pierce</td><td>Bos </td><td>2826</td><td>+1.3</td><td>+1.7</td><td>+1.5</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>62</td><td>Martin</td><td>Den </td><td>848</td><td>-1.2</td><td>+0.1</td><td>-0.6</td></tr> <tr><td>19</td><td>K. Thomas</td><td>Mil/Chi </td><td>864</td><td>+2.1</td><td>+0.6</td><td>+1.4</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>63</td><td>Kristic</td><td>Okc/Bos </td><td>754</td><td>-1.3</td><td>0.0</td><td>-0.7</td></tr> <tr><td>20</td><td>G. Davis</td><td>Bos </td><td>1664</td><td>+2.2</td><td>+0.5</td><td>+1.4</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>64</td><td>Nash</td><td>Pho </td><td>1641</td><td>-1.0</td><td>-0.3</td><td>-0.7</td></tr> <tr><td>21</td><td>Pietrus</td><td>Orl/Pho </td><td>775</td><td>+0.9</td><td>+1.7</td><td>+1.3</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>65</td><td>A. Carter</td><td>Den/Nyk </td><td>990</td><td>-1.7</td><td>+0.3</td><td>-0.7</td></tr> <tr><td>22</td><td>Horford</td><td>Atl </td><td>1255</td><td>+2.1</td><td>+0.5</td><td>+1.3</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>66</td><td>A. Miller</td><td>Por </td><td>1056</td><td>-1.7</td><td>+0.2</td><td>-0.8</td></tr> <tr><td>23</td><td>Jordan</td><td>LAC </td><td>1095</td><td>+3.4</td><td>-0.8</td><td>+1.3</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>67</td><td>M. Williams</td><td>Atl </td><td>873</td><td>-1.7</td><td>+0.2</td><td>-0.8</td></tr> <tr><td>24</td><td>Artest</td><td>LAL </td><td>3180</td><td>+0.2</td><td>+2.3</td><td>+1.3</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>68</td><td>Gomes</td><td>LAC </td><td>836</td><td>-1.4</td><td>-0.5</td><td>-1.0</td></tr> <tr><td>25</td><td>Odom</td><td>LAL </td><td>2750</td><td>+0.6</td><td>+1.7</td><td>+1.2</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>69</td><td>E. Gordon</td><td>LAC </td><td>817</td><td>-1.2</td><td>-0.7</td><td>-1.0</td></tr> <tr><td>26</td><td>Rondo</td><td>Bos </td><td>2983</td><td>+1.4</td><td>+0.7</td><td>+1.1</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>70</td><td>Ge. Hill</td><td>Sas </td><td>1121</td><td>-2.3</td><td>+0.2</td><td>-1.1</td></tr> <tr><td>27</td><td>Aldridge</td><td>Por </td><td>1263</td><td>-0.2</td><td>+2.2</td><td>+1.0</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>71</td><td>Richardson</td><td>Pho/Orl </td><td>1798</td><td>-0.5</td><td>-1.6</td><td>-1.1</td></tr> <tr><td>28</td><td>Nowitzki</td><td>Dal </td><td>1500</td><td>-1.1</td><td>+3.0</td><td>+1.0</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>72</td><td>Nelson</td><td>Orl </td><td>1576</td><td>-2.6</td><td>+0.4</td><td>-1.1</td></tr> <tr><td>29</td><td>Haywood</td><td>Dal </td><td>753</td><td>+1.7</td><td>+0.2</td><td>+1.0</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>73</td><td>Boozer</td><td>Uta/Chi </td><td>1560</td><td>-0.5</td><td>-1.7</td><td>-1.1</td></tr> <tr><td>30</td><td>Durant</td><td>Okc </td><td>1345</td><td>+1.2</td><td>+0.6</td><td>+0.9</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>74</td><td>Allen</td><td>Bos </td><td>2869</td><td>-0.6</td><td>-1.7</td><td>-1.2</td></tr> <tr><td>31</td><td>Wade</td><td>Mia </td><td>1644</td><td>+1.9</td><td>-0.1</td><td>+0.9</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>75</td><td>Terry</td><td>Dal </td><td>1233</td><td>-1.3</td><td>-1.1</td><td>-1.2</td></tr> <tr><td>32</td><td>Gasol</td><td>LAL </td><td>3530</td><td>+0.9</td><td>+0.8</td><td>+0.9</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>76</td><td>Korver</td><td>Uta/Chi </td><td>980</td><td>-2.9</td><td>+0.3</td><td>-1.3</td></tr> <tr><td>33</td><td>J. Anthony</td><td>Mia </td><td>783</td><td>+0.4</td><td>+1.2</td><td>+0.8</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>77</td><td>Billups</td><td>Den/Nyk </td><td>1032</td><td>-0.7</td><td>-2.1</td><td>-1.4</td></tr> <tr><td>34</td><td>Parker</td><td>Sas </td><td>1304</td><td>-0.2</td><td>+1.7</td><td>+0.8</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>78</td><td>Williams</td><td>Cle/LAC </td><td>1567</td><td>-2.6</td><td>-0.2</td><td>-1.4</td></tr> <tr><td>35</td><td>Griffin</td><td>LAC </td><td>1620</td><td>+1.5</td><td>0.0</td><td>+0.8</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>79</td><td>D. Williams</td><td>Uta/Njn </td><td>1777</td><td>-1.5</td><td>-1.5</td><td>-1.5</td></tr> <tr><td>36</td><td>Millsap</td><td>Uta </td><td>1105</td><td>-0.8</td><td>+2.2</td><td>+0.7</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>80</td><td>Crawford</td><td>Atl </td><td>1112</td><td>-0.6</td><td>-2.5</td><td>-1.6</td></tr> <tr><td>37</td><td>G. Hill</td><td>Pho </td><td>1529</td><td>+0.9</td><td>+0.4</td><td>+0.7</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>81</td><td>Stoudemire</td><td>Pho/Nyk </td><td>2130</td><td>-0.5</td><td>-2.7</td><td>-1.6</td></tr> <tr><td>38</td><td>Dudley</td><td>Pho </td><td>1298</td><td>+1.0</td><td>+0.1</td><td>+0.6</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>82</td><td>Foye</td><td>LAC </td><td>1082</td><td>-1.6</td><td>-1.7</td><td>-1.7</td></tr> <tr><td>39</td><td>Gibson</td><td>Chi </td><td>943</td><td>+0.5</td><td>+0.5</td><td>+0.5</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>83</td><td>Batum</td><td>Por </td><td>823</td><td>-1.0</td><td>-2.3</td><td>-1.7</td></tr> <tr><td>40</td><td>Westbrook</td><td>Okc </td><td>1213</td><td>+1.3</td><td>-0.5</td><td>+0.4</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>84</td><td>Bibby</td><td>Atl/Mia </td><td>1031</td><td>-1.6</td><td>-1.8</td><td>-1.7</td></tr> <tr><td>41</td><td>Jennings</td><td>Mil </td><td>750</td><td>+0.8</td><td>-0.1</td><td>+0.4</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>85</td><td>Douglas</td><td>Nyk </td><td>794</td><td>-3.0</td><td>-1.0</td><td>-2.0</td></tr> <tr><td>42</td><td>Ibaka</td><td>Okc </td><td>924</td><td>+0.7</td><td>0.0</td><td>+0.4</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>86</td><td>J. Green</td><td>Okc/Bos </td><td>993</td><td>-1.7</td><td>-2.3</td><td>-2.0</td></tr> <tr><td>43</td><td>R. Jefferson</td><td>Sas </td><td>1267</td><td>0.0</td><td>+0.5</td><td>+0.3</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>87</td><td>Jamison</td><td>Cle </td><td>784</td><td>-1.5</td><td>-2.7</td><td>-2.1</td></tr> <tr><td>44</td><td>Frye</td><td>Pho </td><td>1497</td><td>+0.9</td><td>-0.5</td><td>+0.2</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td></td></tr></table>
     
    #33 durvasa, Jan 29, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  14. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    Dirk's high cuz he's unstoppable on offense. On defense he's been fortunate to have good defensive coaches (little general, their coach now) who taught him some great D. People call him soft but the truth is he's an extremely intelligent, athletic 7 footer who isn't afraid of contact. That's a pretty good defender if you ask me lol.
     
  15. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    You make a very good point regarding having good defensive coaches.

    A player in one system could rate very poorly defensively and in another show up as a positive contributor if they have the right intelligence/motivation. How well you defend is very much based on the system your coach puts you in. Good coaches know how to maximize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of their players.
     
  16. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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  17. Brandyon

    Brandyon Member

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    I think ratings like that are pretty interesting too. These are guys that many consider superstars, but have always had doubters.

    Pau, Love, Stoudemire, Bosh.... Each shows poorly on these charts. Each has been in a situation where they were "The Guy." Every one of the teams that FEATURED them, was awful. .500 at best. I think Pau carried to Grizz to the playoffs once.

    The stats very accurately reflect what my eyes have told me for years. These are all star players, but have never been superstars. Great #2 or #3 options on a contender.

    p.s. - I will say that Love has not had as much opportunity as the other 3.
     

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