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Neat adjusted +/- charts ...

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by durvasa, Jan 28, 2012.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    I thought the charts that can be found at this link were very interesting (click the player names):

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking_rec

    It shows ratings the players over the years (not including this season) using the regularized adjusted +/- (RAPM) method (see here for more info).

    Without going into details, the ratings are calculated by only looking at who was on the floor and how the score changed. Maybe I'm just strange (), but I think its cool how this is able to come up with ratings that so closely match the reputations (if you read what coaches/scouts say about them) without actually incorporating any of their individual stats that you'd find in the box-score. For example, I was impressed by how consistently it gave positive defensive ratings to players who are known to be solid defenders even if they don't collect a bunch of steals/blocks. I think this is a really great tool to uncover players who could be very underrated or overrated when you just rely on their fantasy numbers or the attention they get on TV (all too common, unfortunately).

    Below are the charts for the top 10 PER players between 2008-2011. And I'm only using PER as a criteria to select the players (how they rate by PER is not the point). Click the links on the right column to see their RAPM chart:
    <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #B90D0D; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style>
    <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr style="background-color: #B90D0D; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;"><th>Rk </th><th>Player </th><th>G </th><th>MPG</th><th>PER (08-11)</th><th>RAPM charts</th></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>LeBron James </td><td>311</td><td>38.9</td><td>29.8</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>Chris Paul </td><td>283</td><td>37.5</td><td>26.8</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>Dwyane Wade </td><td>283</td><td>37.5</td><td>26.8</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>Dwight Howard </td><td>321</td><td>36.4</td><td>24.6</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>Tim Duncan </td><td>307</td><td>31.8</td><td>23.9</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>Kobe Bryant </td><td>319</td><td>36.9</td><td>23.6</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>Dirk Nowitzki </td><td>312</td><td>36.4</td><td>23.5</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>Amare Stoudemire </td><td>292</td><td>35.4</td><td>23.5</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>Manu Ginobili </td><td>273</td><td>29.5</td><td>22.8</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>Chris Bosh </td><td>291</td><td>36.7</td><td>22.5</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr></table>

    Notice how Amare Stoudamire sticks out as being the worst player in this set because of his awful defense. Chris Bosh, though commonly placed at the same level as Amare and having a similar PER, rates as a much better all-around player.

    The next post will have 11-20 (I split it up because of the image limit).
     
    #1 durvasa, Jan 28, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
    3 people like this.
  2. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    Here are players 11-20 by PER from 2008-2011:
    <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #B90D0D; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style>
    <table class="tableizer-table"><tr style="background-color: #B90D0D; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold"><th>Rk </th><th>Player </th><th>G </th><th>MPG</th><th>PER (08-11)</th><th>RAPM charts</th></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Pau Gasol </td><td>294</td><td>36.7</td><td>22.5</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>Kevin Durant </td><td>314</td><td>38.0</td><td>21.8</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>13</td><td>Kevin Garnett </td><td>268</td><td>31.3</td><td>21.7</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>14</td><td>Kevin Love </td><td>214</td><td>29.8</td><td>21.4</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>15</td><td>Carmelo Anthony </td><td>289</td><td>36.2</td><td>21.1</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>16</td><td>Al Jefferson </td><td>290</td><td>35.0</td><td>21.1</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>17</td><td>Deron Williams </td><td>291</td><td>37.2</td><td>20.9</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>18</td><td>Andrew Bynum </td><td>204</td><td>29.1</td><td>20.8</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>19</td><td>Steve Nash </td><td>311</td><td>33.5</td><td>20.8</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr> <tr><td>20</td><td>Zach Randolph </td><td>275</td><td>35.5</td><td>20.6</td><td>
    [​IMG]
    </td></tr></table>
     
  3. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    I laugh at ur fancy graphics, my eyes tell me whose gooder and whose sucky.


    DD
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    But what I found neat about this is how often the ratings matched what I see with my eyes. My eyes can distinguish more details in what they see, but these ratings see every possession of every game without bias. As such, we're not in 100% agreement on all players, but that's totally fine. Its still interesting to look at.
     
  5. francis 4 prez

    francis 4 prez Contributing Member

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    really cool. amazing how almost everyone seems to start off poorly early in their careers no matter how good they seemed to be.

    also, i figured carmelo would not do well and he basically came out at a 0. same with al jefferson, i figured he would do poorly and he definitely did. throw in the fact that amare was nothing special and maybe we are starting to see the knicks' problem.

    having said all that, since kobe did not have the highest score, i'm sorry durvasa but i'm going to have to render all this data invalid.
     
  6. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    I think Kobe's reputation is built on his ability to do amazing things in "big moments". Naturally, Kobe fans will remember those moments more than anything else.

    This is looking at performance over every possession, weighting each one equally. Maybe there's an argument to be made about weighting possessions differently based on the importance of game or the important of the moment within the game.

    Still, he does really well, though this analysis doesn't agree with his reputation as one of the great defensive players in the league.
     
  7. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    That's interesting.

    Surprised Dirk is so high considering his bad reputation on defense.

    And I'm surprised Pau and Love are so low.
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    For Love, his team was pretty awful before this season so maybe the notion that he's a super-star (which his numbers make him appear to be) is going overboard. Still, he is trending upwards. This season (not shown in the chart) his RAPM is even better.

    Gasol does ok. These ratings don't portray him as a super-star (roughly speaking, above the teal line) but as a very good player nonetheless.
     
  9. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    What do the aqua lines represent?
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    There is a line at +5 and a line at -5, delineating at what point players cross over into truly awesome and truly awful, respectively. That's my interpretation, anyway.
     
  11. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Also surprised at Deron Williams.

    His defense is not good.
     
  12. sealclubber1016

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    Chase Budinger

    + 1 Off
    0 Def

    + 1 Overall

    Every metric consistently spells out the no D myth chase has attached to him.

    It's become my goal in life to dispel this, all the while making know my disappointment in his development.

    HE IS NOT A DEFENSIVE LIABILTY, just don't force him to defend lightning quick guards and he's OK
     
  13. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Yeah, great stuff, durvasa, as usual. I noticed how Gasol stood out among 4s in the second chart, except for Zach Randolf, who's close. Interesting to me, because I think of them as quite different players.
     
  14. eMat

    eMat Contributing Member

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    Great thread!

    Some interesting ones:
    Martin - can you get any more extreme?
    [​IMG]
    Kyle Lowry is good and getting better.
    [​IMG]
    Scola - meh.
    [​IMG]
    Chuck Hayes is awesome
    [​IMG]
    Artest used to be superstarish
    [​IMG]
     
    1 person likes this.
  15. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Compare Scola's chart to the cat so many want to trade for, the guy who makes $10 million more per year, Amare Stoudemire. By this metric, Scola is definitely better.
     
  16. DaDakota

    DaDakota Fire Silas
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    Please stop trying to derail each and every thread and make it about me.

    Durv,

    These are pretty cool, fun to check out, thanks for posting.

    DD
     
  17. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    Nick Collison - best contract in the NBA*.

    *excluding the superduper stars that are worth 50+ million.
     
  18. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    Top 30 defenders over the prior 3 seasons (equal weight to each season).

    Almost all of these players have reputations as very good defenders. Rashard Lewis is a notable exception. That was a surprise to me, but then I came across this article which suggests that his defense was underrated. Does APM just miss on him, or is there something to him being an underrated defender when he was in Orlando? Maybe SVG using him as a mobile PF instead of a slow-footed SF put him in a better position to be a productive team defender.

    <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #B90D0D; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style>
    <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr style="background-color: #B90D0D; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold"><th>Name</th><th>2011</th><th>2010</th><th>2009</th><th>last_3_years</th></tr> <tr><td>Garnett, Kevin</td><td>5.3</td><td>4</td><td>5.6</td><td>5.0</td></tr> <tr><td>Bogut, Andrew</td><td>3.8</td><td>4.4</td><td>4.1</td><td>4.1</td></tr> <tr><td>Przybilla, Joel</td><td>1.8</td><td>3.9</td><td>4</td><td>3.2</td></tr> <tr><td>Camby, Marcus</td><td>2.1</td><td>3.4</td><td>3.9</td><td>3.1</td></tr> <tr><td>Collison, Nick</td><td>3.6</td><td>4.1</td><td>1.4</td><td>3.0</td></tr> <tr><td>Duncan, Tim</td><td>3.7</td><td>3.2</td><td>2</td><td>3.0</td></tr> <tr><td>Johnson, Amir</td><td>2.4</td><td>3.2</td><td>3.1</td><td>2.9</td></tr> <tr><td>Odom, Lamar</td><td>1.7</td><td>3.1</td><td>3.9</td><td>2.9</td></tr> <tr><td>Artest, Ron</td><td>2.3</td><td>2.9</td><td>3.4</td><td>2.9</td></tr> <tr><td>Howard, Dwight</td><td>3.8</td><td>2.5</td><td>2</td><td>2.8</td></tr> <tr><td>Allen, Tony</td><td>2.9</td><td>2.6</td><td>2.7</td><td>2.7</td></tr> <tr><td>Hayes, Chuck</td><td>2.1</td><td>2.8</td><td>3.1</td><td>2.7</td></tr> <tr><td>James, LeBron</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.6</td><td>2.8</td><td>2.6</td></tr> <tr><td>Smith, Josh</td><td>3.6</td><td>1.9</td><td>2.2</td><td>2.6</td></tr> <tr><td>Wallace, Gerald</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.7</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>Deng, Luol</td><td>3.9</td><td>1.9</td><td>1.7</td><td>2.5</td></tr> <tr><td>Hilario, Nene</td><td>3</td><td>1.4</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.3</td></tr> <tr><td>Wallace, Ben</td><td>1.3</td><td>3.2</td><td>2.4</td><td>2.3</td></tr> <tr><td>Kidd, Jason</td><td>1.3</td><td>2.5</td><td>2.7</td><td>2.2</td></tr> <tr><td>Udoka, Ime</td><td>1.3</td><td>2.1</td><td>3</td><td>2.1</td></tr> <tr><td>Foster, Jeff</td><td>2.2</td><td>1.5</td><td>2.6</td><td>2.1</td></tr> <tr><td>Kirilenko, Andrei</td><td>0.8</td><td>3.2</td><td>2.2</td><td>2.1</td></tr> <tr><td>O'Neal, Jermaine</td><td>2.8</td><td>2</td><td>1.3</td><td>2.0</td></tr> <tr><td>Lewis, Rashard</td><td>1.2</td><td>2.2</td><td>2.6</td><td>2.0</td></tr> <tr><td>Collins, Jarron</td><td>2</td><td>1.9</td><td>2</td><td>2.0</td></tr> <tr><td>Iguodala, Andre</td><td>2.5</td><td>0.4</td><td>2.8</td><td>1.9</td></tr> <tr><td>Collins, Jason</td><td>3.6</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1.9</td></tr> <tr><td>Mbah a Moute, Luc</td><td>1.9</td><td>1.9</td><td>1.7</td><td>1.8</td></tr> <tr><td>Varejao, Anderson</td><td>1.1</td><td>2</td><td>2.1</td><td>1.7</td></tr></table>
     
  19. Kwame

    Kwame Contributing Member

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    What's not surprising to me is that Shane Battier doesn't appear on that list. Do you happen to have Battier's ranking as a defender over the past 3 years?
     
  20. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    I didn't save the rankings, but here's his chart:

    [​IMG]

    Eyeballing it, over last 3 its about +1.6.

    He was at his prime, defensively, when we acquired him.
     
    #20 durvasa, Jan 28, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2012

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