Same amount of weight given to g League games that Green underperformed. KPJ absolutely abused his ass in g league but he was still drafted #2 overall.
It also isn’t fact that he shrank against “higher level” opponents. The scoring wasn’t the same but the defense was
Did Scottie Barnes' performance in the NCAA tourney dissuade anyone from drafting him? Evan Mobley didn't quite blow away his competition in the tourney either. I hope that this organization has moved on from Bryce Drew-ing anyone in an NBA draft. If my data is right, Gonzaga played 11 games against ranked opponents this past season, including games in the NCAA tourney. Chet's numbers in those 11 games: PPG: 10 RPG: 9.7 BPG: 3.4 APG: 1.5 FGM/FGA per game: 4.3/8.36 FG%: 48% 3PTA/3PTM per game: 0/2.6 3PT%: 17% 2PTA/2PTM per game: 3.8/5.7 2PT%: 61% FTA/FTM per game: 1/2.1 FT%: 57% His numbers against unranked opponents: PPG: 16 RPG: 10 BPG: 3.8 APG: 2.1 FGM/FGA per game: 5.9/8.95 FG%: 65.6% 3PTA/3PTM per game: 2/3.6 3PT%: 44.5% 2PTA/2PTM per game: 4.1/5.3 2PT%: 78.3% FTA/FTM per game: 3/3.6 FT%: 71.3% His overall season averages: PPG: 14.1 RPG: 9.9 BPG: 3.7 APG: 1.9 FGM/FGA per game: 5.3/8.8 FG%: 60.7% 3PTA/3PTM per game: 1.3/3.3 3PT%: 39% 2PTA/2PTM per game: 4/5.5 2PT%: 73.7% FTA/FTM per game: 2.2/3.1 FT%: 71.7% I don't know if I would call that "shrinking" but I guess we can agree to disagree on what "shrinking" equates to. His rebounding numbers, blocks and assists averages were pretty much all the same. Scoring is the biggest change (10 ppg against ranked teams vs 16 ppg against unranked teams) but it's not as if Chet's taking more FGs against unnranked opponents (8.36) vs ranked opponents (8.95).
One notable trend (I'm sure the ones that wanted Mobley pointed this out last year) is that players who ranked in the top 10 in DBPM in college who were drafted higher in the 1st round tend to actually maintain their ability to defend in the NBA: 2020-2021: Franz Wagner (3rd; 6.1 DBPM), Evan Mobley (4th; 5.8) 2018-2019: Matisse Thybulle (1st; 8.9); Zion Wiliamson (2nd; 6.7); Brandon Clarke (3rd; 6.5); Jaxson Hayes (8th; 5.5) 2017-2018: Jaren Jackson (1st; 7.3); Robert Williams (4th; 6.2); Mo Bamba (5th; 5.9) 2016-2017: Mikal Bridges (8th; 5.8) 2015-2016: Alex Caruso (2nd; 6.1)
when draft analysts compare banchero to julius randle (and yes, prominent scouts/analysts have compared him to randle), taller carmelo anthony, or post-injury detroit blake griffin... that should give anybody some pause. sure the guy has some skill for a big guy, but for anybody who's bothered to see him play a full game, he's really not the most efficient on offense and his focus and ability to be a gamechanger on the defensive end is non-existent. he's ****ing lazy on defense. julius randle, or even a healthy melo or blake griffin have never won **** in this league. if i'm trying to build a championship team, those are the type of players i'm trying to stay away from...
What is that based on? What makes Draymond special defensively is different from Mobley or Chet. Yes, Green understands spacing, angles and processes defense quickly but he is a big time communicator. Directs the defense and offense while in the floor. In a vacuum by himself or without willing teammates Draymond isn't going to raise a teams defense like Dwight. Chet/Mobley don't do that same level of leadership... It's a developed skill but Draymond has had that skill back in is early University days. Also KG said Thon Maker would be a future MVP after working out with him ...
Great points! IMO and this is obviously subjective, but Scottie didnt disappear like Chet did - Scottie is a testament to great eval and scouting. It wasnt just about the tourney this was a trend with Chet that followed him all year. First tourney game he had I was like "WOW - there HE is" (even though the same concept was displayed that he gets up for inferior teams vs elite) and then back to being a glue guy. Chet isnt supposed to be a guy who is "found" by great scouts. He is a guy who has been touted as the "next big thing" for a while now. I expected him to be #1 for Zaga, but he wasnt. Not his fault I get that, but anyone who's played the game knows that if you're HIM the other guys on the squad will defer. Look at how Jalen commanded his GLeague team. How the other young stars gravitated toward him during the rookie/soph stars game this season. I'd like LEADERS on my team especially in game/series defining moments. Guys who can share that alpha role when necessary. Like Bill Russel said "this game has always been and will always be about getting buckets" and that from probably the greatest defensive player in history. With all that said I think Chet could fill a need here and find some success in his support role because we have awesome guard play that would keep him involved. He would block some shots, rebound well and hit the open jumper when called upon (hopefully - his 3 even abandoned him at times in the tourney). I just prefer a guy who can be HIM when needed. Like I've said over and over Im cool with Chet on the team. If Jalen went down we couldnt turn to Chet to be that guy to keep the offense rolling. I guess I'd just prefer to have another Jalen type alpha that can step in. The more of those guys you get the better you will be. You can always find great glue guys later.
It’s really weird that people say Chet disappeared in the tourney, must not know the numbers or how to watch defense. Literally nothing backs that up
I'd like to ask a question and my hope is no one takes me asking it in offense.... If Holmgren was black, would people feel more comfortable drafting him at #1? Is his gangly weird lookingness dragging him down a bit? Personally, I think so.
Chet college DBPM is a freakish 7.5. Mobley DBPM was 5.8. Barnes DBPM was 3.6. DBPM almost always translates to NBA.
Sorry this week was a rough one at work. Now I can somewhat address the question you posted. I'm probably not introducing anything new to your outlook. Just offering my humble perspective or take. So yes, Chet and Jabari both had big men to play off of defensively. Chet had Timme to muscle up at the rim and Jabari had Kessler. So both had a role as help defender and Chet probably played that role better. But as I pointed out the other day, stats can be deceiving as Chet played vs Power Conference teams and averaged less than 10 points vs them, while Jabari played vs Power Conference teams in 27 games and averaged something like 17.5 pts. Could the defensive numbers be tilted as well in Chet favor? Don't get me wrong Chet is a good defender......just saying Jabari can improve substantial with greater strength and improved instincts. Chet does not have strength but his wingspan is impressive and has been trained well using both hands....or picked that up on his own. So that's defense, here is a link to Jabari scouting report which claims he was good at all defense and will probably get even better as a pro as a pro; which I agree with. Ignore the Blazers push for Jabari. https://www.blazersedge.com/2022/4/...t-profile-best-player-available-trail-blazers ___________________________________ Now let's tackle the offensive side. Rockets shot the 4th most 3PA's and 21st in 3P% at 34.9%. Here is the shot chart on Jabari Smith Jr https://images.app.goo.gl/o1T1Rnh5BvTPnuXk7 You will notice Jabari shoots from everywhere on the court. Especially note the left corner 3 from Jabari. This is what I'm mostly talking about perfect fit because the Rockets are desperate for corner 3-pt shooters. 21/22 left and right corner 3 (Rockets) Player.........Rt C 3PA.....Rt C 3P%.........Lt C 3PA.....Lt C 3P%....... Jalen G..........23..................34.8%..................47...............36.2%...... Porter.............22.................45.5%..................23................47.8%...... Tate................40.................42.5%..................41................22.0%..... KMjr...............15.................33.3%..................30................26.7%...... Wood.............19.................42.1%..................22................50.0%....... Sengun...........8...................25.0%..................2..................0%.......... Gary M...........26.................26.9%..................69................34.8%...... Josh C...........25.................24.0%..................24.................41.7%...... So yes one or two players have a good percentage; but geez, what anemic numbers as far as attempts go. Someone mentioned the Rockets corner shooters of 17/18? Ariza (17/18): right corner 3: 113 (3PA).......43.4% (3P%) left corner 3: 75 (3PA)...........42.7 (3P%) P J Tucker (17/18): right corner 3: 89 (3PA).........37.1 (3P%) left corner 3: 117 (3PA)........42.7 (3P%) Here is Chet's shot chart: https://images.app.goo.gl/poktNop6bJX888iPA As you can see everything is at the rim or straight away 3. BPA is probably Chet but BPA that fits is probably Jabari, chemistry-wise. Chet putting the ball on the ground might step on the toes of Green/Porter progression as drive facilitators and mucks up thing with Sengun working in the post or running the Olynyk action from the top of the key. Add Wood and Josh Christopher and you may have a tug-a-war between shot creators.....Jabari steps in seamlessly. Now many here would say, get Chet and dump Sengun or Josh Christopher and/or Wood but I'm trying to keep the team intact and have as less moving parts as possible. With exception to Eric Gordon and possibly Nix and Nwaba; but they hardly matter much to next season if Porter and Green keep improving. I'm not sure people understand how much a decent corner 3 point shooter or shooters will open up the offense to even a greater extent. One corner shooter might create enough open lanes that Porter, Green, and Christopher completely shred opposing defenses. And vice-versa, the drives by Porter, Green and Josh Christopher will open up 3-point shooting for Jabari.......PLUS DRIVING LANES AS WIDE AS WHEN MOSES PARTED THE RED SEA. Forget about Chet vs Jabari ball handling to create their own shot, Jabari will gets his off of 3-pt shot, cutters, slashing, and look at his shot chart again.... oh yeah catch and shoot from anywhere in the half court. Pick and Pop. Chet still pretty much leaves the Rockets with the funnel offense of shots at the rim and above the Break 3. Now that's not to say Chet can't become proficient in other areas on the court.....but that can be said of Jabari as well. Again, I'm not against the Rockets taking Chet.....just needs a lot more team chemistry tinkering and probably extend our rebuild. Another thing to consider is I have Jabari initially playing SF with a move to PF later. Chet I have as PF slash Center. Those are different role initially. Jabari-Wood-Sengun allows each to help out defensively. So I expect improved defense just because of greater wingspan at SF. Interior and perimeter defense.
That doesn't answer the question on why you think Chet would be a better defender than Draymond. I mean that response would mean guys like Towns and Cauley-Stein are better NBA defenders than Draymond. Again not taking into account Big 10 vs WCC(seriously Gonzaga is the only school that consistently produces NBA talent). In Chet moved well, if he stays healthy he should be a good defender but there is too much hyperbole around his game. He isn't an easy prospect to gauge but I hearing people make comments like "by far best NCAA defender in the past 20 years" -_-. They play a zone with drop coverage on PnR and there is no defensive 3 sec. So yes his numbers will be high. The one thing I noticed unlike other dominant shot blockers is teams foolish or not always just go right at him. I noticed he has a habit of jumping before the offensive player does. He isn't the communicator on defense that guys like Liddel are and I think that communication is the biggest part of Draymond game.
this is what gives me pause about him as well. I heard those comps, randle, Detroit Blake, taller/older Anthony. even Antoine Walker, which rings really true. like you I'm not in love with those players even in their peak. they were all stars and max contract players, and he might be the best player available... but if all you can do is soak up usage and generate shots for yourself and others, you have to be elite at that in order to lead an nba team to title contention. if not, you're more of a 6th man on a contender, or leading a team to the playoffs at best. so the question is, are you convinced he can be an elite (high volume / high efficiency) offensive weapon? if so, he's worth the #1 pick, lets him and jalen run our offense. if you don't think he an be highly efficient on high usage, then pick a highly efficient, lower usage, 2 way player like chet or Jabari. personally I think his dribbling and passing are elite *for his size*, and even above average for a wing. the jump shot to me is the swing skill. right now he projects as an average 3pt shooter. much better on catch and shoot than off the dribble. decision making can improve (fewer turnovers, less tunnel vision at times). also he's not a bad on ball defender, just gets lost on rotations. overall some of the concerns about his defense are overstated. some of the hype around his scoring is overstated. I'm still torn honestly between him chet and jabari.
