Banchero's ceiling is something like 25/10/5 with solid defense. Chet's, in my opinion, is something like 18/12/4 with 3bpg/high-level defense. It comes down to what you value more -- and many would take the elite defense and efficient complementary offense from Chet (to pair with our elite offensive wing in Jalen). Others would take the go-to 3-level scorer from the PF spot who could be a deadly 1b to Jalen for many years to come. I think rim-protection is something we definitely need next to Sengun, but you could certainly make the case that bigs with BPG don't always affect team defense as much as fans would like to think. Of the Top-5 defensive teams in the league (GS, BOS, PHX, MEM and MIA) only two are in the Top-5 for BPG as a team -- Boston and Memphis. Meanwhile, GS, PHX and Miami are 18th, 22nd and 30th in BPG as a team, largely because they have strong team-defense. And while I think Chet has many positive attributes, his biggest calling card is his shot-blocking -- and unlike with certain guys (i.e. Embiid), players aren't afraid to go at him. Granted, he does a great job of still contesting/blocking shots when players go at his chest, but his presence alone in the paint doesn't change things. As for Banchero, I think you're selling his J short. His shot-selection was spotty at times this year, but he took quite a few more Js off the dribble than he should've, even though he's very capable for his size/age in that regard. I do agree that the fact he hasn't shown a ton as a roll man is concerning if you want to pair him with Jalen as an "elite offensive duo," but Duke also had a true C/lob-guy clogging the paint (Mark Williams) and no great playmaking Gs to run P&R consistently.
Portland might be the only team. Would say Orlando, but he’s not starting over Franz and their big man rotation is deep
No one ever said you said he could be primary playmaker. That wasn’t what was said. I asked a question and you took it as that. Reading and comprehension skills needed. No, he wouldn’t be over KPJ, Green, Alp or probably Tate as a playmaker.
Banchero is not a 3 level scorer, efficiently. And I will bet any amount of money possible he never averages 25/10/5
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=players+who+have+averaged+25+ppg,+10+rpg,+5+apg+in+a+season Wilt, Oscar, Bird, Kareem, Westbrook, Giannis, Jokic The only player Paolo could maybe be is Boogie, but even then Boogie was elite for a couple years
After the All-Star Break, there are only 10 players that made 80% of their 2 PTAs and 40% of their 3PTAs while having the ball less than 2 seconds. Green is one of those 10. Green either pulls his defender with him without the ball (in Toronto's case, Tate's defender too), or he makes the opposing team pay.
The general trend has been to pursue players with an elite skill at the top of the draft for awhile now. I think you need a couple guys on a team that are elite at particular things, but there is a lot to be said for guys 3-5 in the line up just being above average at a number of skills. No, Chet is an elite defender right now. Anything can happen in the NBA, but defensively Chet is pretty close to a guarantee. He has a wingspan that is close to 7'8" now if you believe what was coming out of Gonzaga, he is nimble on his feet, has an exceptional second step and is very active with a high motor and IQ.... he is going to be an elite defender unless he gets hurt.... he is more active and with a higher motor than even Evan Mobley... so the upside there is extremely high. Whoever drafts Holmgren will build their defense around what he can do. Banchero has a very high offensive ceiling. He isn't a burner or freak athlete but he is strong, he has a good handle and has good court vision. If he learns to shoot better, he could score 25+ points a game. He isn't a great rebounder, but he is solid. His issues are that he isn't really someone that inside shuts down guys and his effort on defense has been inconsistent.... but he isn't the first guy with that issue.... if I knew the Rockets would get Wembanyama in the draft next year, I would want Banchero or Ivey this season. There are always exceptions. Rim protection, or really rim deterrence is a huge part of defense, the ability to keep guys from shooting inside. Also, a lot of the issues with the Jazz in the playoffs aren't Gobbert, it is the guys around him. There are match ups that are not good for him.... but he is also a lot different than Holmgren.... Gobbert cannot move like Holmgren..... guys like Mobley, Holmgren, Wembanyama are of high value defensively because they can stay on the floor.
Yes, really. Just add defense. Now did Gordon do all of this in his rookie season? Did he make 70+ year NBA history in his rookie season? I don't recall the team being blown out much this season. So you add more defense and get a few more stops and blocks a game. Now theres absolutely nothing wrong with adding more offensive minded players but imo the team just needs more defense. Also the defenders I'm talking about are not just all defense. Chet is a capable scorer. Liddell is also. Sochan, not so much, but his defense outweighs his offensive liability.
Banchero is a good shot creator, but it wouldn't be nearly as impressive if he were a guard - it is impressive because he is a forward and is a massive man doing it. It isn't a slight, it is a compliment to Banchero. Banchero isn't a great shot blocker or rim protector and he doesn't move horizontally as well as guys that are typically good defenders. Even 10 years ago his lack of horizontal quickness wouldn't matter as he would be asked to guard inside, but the game has changed a lot. I am not saying that Banchero is doomed to be a bad defender, he may prove to be an average defender and maybe even a good one on one defender.... however he is not likely to ever impact the game defensively like Holmgren or Smith will, and Ivey has the physical attributes to be a good defender..... the reality is defense inside is largely more important than guard defense. Teams will try to overcome it with point of attack defense from their guards, and that can at times be successful but it requires real bulldogs in the backcourt and takes a lot of energy.... I don't think someone saying they want Banchero #1 is a terrible take or anything, I am pretty confident he is going to score over 20 points a game in his prime and likely get 3-4 assists.... and be a solid rebounder. He has the chance to be an all star and maybe even a Blake Griffin type player. That is really damn good.
The same way analysts project the players you name as having upside on both sides of the ball is the same way some have said that Banchero wont be a liability on defense curious what makes you believe he wont be good in that department? (edit: just saw your explanation in the post above). Trying to envision each players final form requires a sequence of events for each guy since none of them are there yet. Ivey has the measurables to be a good defender, but I havent seen a lock down guy on that side of the ball yet and his push shot mechanics make me wonder how effective he will be in getting his shot off at the next level consistently. There is no question about his athletic ability. Chets ability to break down a defender is somewhat romanticized because he doesnt do it with frequency so when it happens its a "oh and ahh" moment - his play vs tough opponents is still something that raises some eyes. He's the best defender in the draft and can hit the open shot. If Jabari even had a basic dribble game he would be the no doubt #1. I agree with a championship team needing to be good on both sides of the ball.
Sure - if the goal is to showcase KPJ and Jalen Green as the best scoring backcourt in the NBA I could see Jabari and Chet paying dividends. All they would need to do is play good defense and hit the open shot when they get the ball. Projecting more than 3&D players requires each of them to grow considerably as all around offensive players. I would prefer having another guy who can control the tempo and dictate the offense which neither Chet or Jabari can do right now because they need good guard play around them to reach their full potential UNTIL they can develop on offense. We wont even know how Chet will react and absorb the physicality that is waiting for him. Biggest bust potential albeit with the highest ceiling if everything goes perfectly I will concede that.
I have seen Ivey lock guys down, the concern with him isn't whether he can do it - it is whether he will actually put in the effort to do it consistently because that seems to be an issue with scoring guards. I am not a huge fan of Ivey's shot mechanics, but I think the fact he is a blur will likely help him a great deal in that regard. Holmgren hasn't consistently shown he can break down defenses in the half court. He has shown he can do it in the full court, and later in the year there were instances where he drove inside and broke players down - but not consistently enough for me to be convinced it isn't an issue to be concerned about. Holmgren can point to the fact that he had Timme inside clogging the lane, and he had limited opportunities, but the fact remains we don't know if he will do it. I personally am not counting on it, I don't even hold that out as a major reason to draft him. Yeah, and ideally a lot of guys that can perform on offense and defense.
Banchero Jabari Chet Murray Ivey thats my top 5 and Im still torn on how much Ivey would help this team. I really like our current young wings. Adding Ivey would require some movement in that positional group since Ivey is really at his best with the ball in his hands. Just like KPJ. Just like Jalen. I dont think Stone is going to relegate Scooter to a bench role or anything like that. He seems to have invested in his development and his play to end the year will probably only further cement Stones ego and what he saw in him to begin with. Hard to see Ivey coming here and ousting either starting guard. I may even prefer Griffin to take Tates spot if push came to shove.
Fair enough, but I don't think his numbers this year are indicative of his offensive potential. 16.8ppg | 7.3rpg | 2.1apg | 33.3mpg | 1.3spg | 1.1bpg | 2.6to 45% FG | 34% 3fg (4.0 3PA) | 85% FT (4.8 FTA) | 56.6 TS% 17.2ppg | 7.8rpg | 3.2apg | 33.0mpg | 1.1spg | 0.9bpg | 2.4to 48% FG | 34% 3fg (3.3 3PA) | 73% FT (4.8 FTA) | 55.7 TS% The first is Jayson Tatum at Duke in '16-'17, the second is Banchero. And yes, Tatum is more skilled (as an SF), but I've followed the Draft closely for over a decade, and many of the concerns on him were similar to those on Banchero. People said he wouldn't be a plus-defender, that he wouldn't be an efficient scorer despite having an advanced 3-level scoring arsenal for his age/size. Both guys took more mid-range Js in a packed CBB paint than they had to (2-point jumpers made up about 35% of both their total FGA at Duke). Both guys have games better suited for NBA spacing, and NBA scouts are overthinking Banchero as they did with Tatum (though the Cs/Ainge did not). Many, if not most, had Josh Jackson over Tatum as a prospect, because he fit a clearer prototype (a slashing/athletic 2-way wing), as Tatum was seen as a versatile scorer who didn't have the efficient college numbers to back it up.
I've also seen Banchero lock up 1-5 as well. His problem is staying inspired on defense. Think about his usage and what Duke needed him to do and I strongly feel he was saving himself for the offensive end. In the NBA he wont be tasked with such a great offensive load so the hope is he will be motivated to be more of a factor there. (depending on team of course) Ivey for me just muddles the positional group and doesnt really offer a clear path or vision. Just throwing darts. Those coast to coast Chet slams are really cool no doubt. He has very little post game - his footwork is not ideal. His first step and dribble ability is a little exaggerated in my opinion. All things he can improve on after he demonstrates his ability to be able to hang with NBA bigs.
That’s true. I think that after my satisfaction with the results of last year’s draft, and the fact that we have an additional pick higher than I would have expected, I’m ready to take that gamble and swing for the fence. Unless the Rockets make a pick completely out of left field, I’m going to be OK with whoever that first pick is.
There really is no "wrong answer" .. its just preference among fans. I wish I knew more about Stone and he had more track history to offer some insight to which way he would lean. We will know what his preference for team building will be after these picks. If Chet or Jabari end up here I'll be happy. In that scenario I would hope that with the 2nd pick they would lock in on a bigger, offensive minded 3 to take the spot of Tate. I think if you take Banchero you could insert that great defender in guys like Sochan, Eason, Brown, Liddell with that 2nd pick, but again its just my preference. Rockets are in a good spot no matter how it shakes out.
