Lot of scenarios could play out for the rest of the season. At any rate, barring something crazy happening (like FSU beating Flordia), the SEC Champion will go the National Title game. As for the Big XII, a number of scenarios are possible. I think the best way for the Horns to get into the BCS Title game is if Tech wins out then loses to Mizzou in the Big XII Championshp. In that case, Texas backdoors into the Title game against Florida/Bama. Not likely, but at any rate, here's my bowl projections. Rose Bowl: USC - Penn State Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Pittsburgh Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah BCS Championship: Texas Tech - Florida
Here are a few BCS bowl projections out there College Football News: http://cfn.scout.com/2/809821.html Rose Bowl presented by Citi Projection: USC vs. Penn State Allstate Sugar Bowl Projection: Alabama vs. Ohio State Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Projection: Texas vs. Utah FedEx Orange Bowl Projection: Pitt vs. Florida State FedEx BCS National Championship Projection: Oklahoma vs. Florida MSNBC.com: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/9999161/?pg=2#spt_BowlProjections08 Rose Bowl presented by Citi Projection: Penn State vs. USC The national championship no longer is possible for Penn State, but the Rose Bowl will be a nice consolation prize. Until the second quarter, that is, when USC’s speed proves to be too much for the Nittany Lions. Meanwhile, the Trojans continue to have nightmares about their loss to Oregon State, which is the only thing keeping them from another shot at the national championship. Allstate Sugar Bowl Projection: Alabama vs. Boise State Unless Alabama slips up against state-rival Auburn (which has a six-game win streak in the series), the Tide will be undefeated heading into the SEC title game against Florida. But the Gators look like the better team right now, and a loss knocks ‘Bama into the Sugar. Penn State’s loss to Iowa drops the Lions out of the title game and into the Rose Bowl, pushes Ohio State out of the BCS entirely and opens the door for undefeated Boise to slip into the party. Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Projection: Oklahoma vs. Utah The Sooners still have a legitimate shot at making it to the national title game, but their 10-point loss to Texas earlier this season likely will keep them out. The Utes were fortunate to beat TCU last week, but they remain undefeated and will crack the BCS if they can get past BYU on Nov. 22. FedEx Orange Bowl Projection: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh Another week, another BCS representative from the ACC. This time it’s North Carolina, which crushed Georgia Tech and is now 7-2. The Tar Heels have a tough game at Maryland on Saturday, then close with N.C. State and Duke. It’s a similar story in the Big East, where there is no dominant team. Pittsburgh is emerging as the best of the bunch, though West Virginia and surprising Cincinnati remain in contention. FedEx BCS National Championship Projection: Texas vs. Florida The Big 12 conference race becomes muddled if Oklahoma defeats Texas Tech this Saturday. The best guess under that scenario is that the Longhorns emerge as the league’s highest-ranked one-loss team. On the other side, Florida and Alabama will play in the SEC title game, with the winner advancing to the national championship. Alabama continues to pull out close contests, while Florida continues to pound teams. Edge to the Gators. CBS Sports: http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions Rose Bowl presented by Citi Projection: Penn State vs. USC Despite USC's loss to Oregon State, we still predict they will win the Pac-10 and earn a spot in the Rose Bowl. Despite Penn State's loss to Iowa, the Nittany Lions will still claim the Big Ten title and earn a trip to Pasadena. Allstate Sugar Bowl Projection: Alabama vs. Utah With Florida going to the BCS National Title game, the Sugar Bowl would get one of the first two replacement picks and obviously would select the highest-ranked SEC team, which will most likely be Alabama (assuming it loses in the SEC title game). With its other pick, the Sugar would take an undefeated Utah over the Big East champion. Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Projection: Texas Tech vs. Ohio State With Oklahoma going to the BCS Championship game, the Fiesta Bowl will use its replacement pick to take another Big 12 team. Since the choice would be either Texas Tech or Texas, we predict they take the Red Raiders based on its head-to-head outcome. With its other selection it takes at-large Ohio State, which should be 10-2 and ranked in the top 10 of the BCS FedEx Orange Bowl Projection: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh The ACC champion is locked to the Orange Bowl and we project North Carolina will claim that honor. The Tar Heels close the season with at Maryland, N.C. State and at Duke, giving them the edge in the ever-changing ACC. The Orange Bowl gets the last pick in the BCS bowl selection process and will end up with either an undefeated non BCS sqaud or the Big East champion. FedEx BCS National Championship Projection: Oklahoma vs. Florida With Penn State's loss to Iowa, it opens the door for a potential Big 12 vs. SEC national championship game. Despite Texas Tech's victory over Texas, we predict the Red Raiders will lose to Oklahoma later in the season, creating a three-way tie in the South Division of the Big 12. Based on the conference tiebreaker, the highest ranked team in the BCS will win the divison and play for the Big 12 title. Assuming the Sooners beat an undefeated Red Raiders team, they should be the highest-ranked Big 12 team. We also predict Florida will beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game, setting up a No. 1 Oklahoma vs. No. 2 Florida in Miami for the national championshop. Florida would be playing for its second BCS title in the past three years, beating Ohio State two years ago. Oklahoma would be playing in its fourth title game.
ESPN.com BCS Bowl projections: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowlprojection?season=2008&week=11 Mark Schlabach: Rose Bowl presented by Citi Projection: Penn State vs. USC Allstate Sugar Bowl Projection: Alabama vs. Pittsburgh Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Projection: Texas vs. Ohio State FedEx Orange Bowl Projection: Wake Forest vs. Utah FedEx BCS National Championship Projection: Texas Tech vs. Florida Bruce Feldman: Rose Bowl presented by Citi Projection: Penn State vs. USC Allstate Sugar Bowl Projection: Alabama vs. Boise State Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Projection: Texas vs. Utah FedEx Orange Bowl Projection: Florida State vs. Cincinnati FedEx BCS National Championship Projection: Oklahoma vs. Florida
If OU beats Tech and OSU the last 2 weeks of the season, there's no way in hell Texas stays ahead in the human polls, probably not even in the computer polls.
Updated BCS Standings 1. Alabama .981 2. Tech .971 3. Texas .879 4. Florida .864 5. OU .844 6. USC .789
Very nice... was wondering when Fox was going to air them. http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/story/8775876/'Bama,-Texas-Tech-1-2,-but-Texas-is-lurking BCS Standings Rk Team BCS Avg. 1 Alabama 0.981 2 Texas Tech 0.971 3 Texas 0.879 4 Florida 0.864 5 Oklahoma 0.844 6 USC 0.789 7 Utah 0.769 8 Penn St. 0.683 9 Boise St. 0.678 10 Georgia 0.615 11 Ohio St. 0.591 12 Missouri 0.558 13 Oklahoma St. 0.533 14 Ball St. 0.416 15 Michigan St. 0.388 16 North Carolina 0.381 17 Brigham Young 0.374 18 Texas Christian 0.351 19 Florida St. 0.259 20 LSU 0.240 21 Pittsburgh 0.179 22 Cincinnati 0.148 23 Tulsa 0.071 24 Wake Forest 0.061 25 South Carolina 0.057 Seeing as how Alabama and Texas Tech are the only teams from a BCS conference without a loss on their record, it shouldn't come as a surprise that they're 1-2 in the latest BCS standings. The real fun, however, starts with No. 3. At least for this week, Texas has been tabbed as the best of the one-loss teams, waiting for either the Tide or the Red Raiders to stumble. But while Florida (No. 4) and Oklahoma (No. 5) are both looking up at the Longhorns in the standings, both may have a better shot to impress both the voters and the computers and play their way into the title game. For example, if Florida were to hand Alabama its first loss of the season in the SEC championship game, it's not difficult to envision the Gators leapfrogging both the Crimson Tide and the Longhorns. Likewise, if the Sooners are able to do what the Longhorns could not -- i.e., beat Texas Tech -- the stage would be set for a three-way tie atop the Big 12 South. In that case, the tie would be broken by the BCS standings themselves. Under that scenario, it's also very possible Oklahoma could use a win over Texas Tech to pass both their Big 12 rivals and earn a spot in the Big 12 championship game. Then there's USC, lurking around at No. 6 but with a much easier path to a one-loss season than any of its would-be rivals. While some uncertainty remains, one thing is absolutely clear: If Alabama and Texas Tech continue their unbeaten ways, they will face off for the national title. Any doubt about that outcome was effectively erased when Iowa hit that last-second field goal, eliminating any chance Penn State had of sneaking into the top two. And it showed in every component of the BCS equation. Alabama and Texas Tech are the top two teams in the Harris Poll, the USA Today poll and in the six computer polls utilized by the BCS. So after 11 weeks, the path to the BCS title game is, at least for the time being, crystal clear. For the Tide and the Red Raiders, it's win and they're in.
How does that not sound logical? I can see what you're saying, but both teams have played tough schedules and handled business. They matched up on a neutral field and Texas won. How does that not make sense?
It sucks that if its a 3 way tie with OU TTU UT . One will be playing for a national title one in a BCS game and the other in the freaking cotton bowl. That will be the biggest joke yet.
This sucks. You can see right now that both Florida and OU (IF they beat Tech) will pass up Texas if they win out. How sad, considering the head to head victory over OU on a neutral field. Turns out we had absolutely no room for error, despite a brutal schedule with no BYE weeks in between the tough games because of Ike. Meanwhile, Florida gets a total mulligan from the inexplicable home loss to unranked Mississippi and will get to the championship game if they win the SEC. Terrible.
Guys, it's going to take unprecedented voter manipulation in both the Harris and coaches poll for OU to make up the .035. Something along the lines of dropping us five spots behind OU. You forget that should OU win out their SOS ranking with the comps will inadvertently increase our SOS. Remeber that they beat an 0-9 Washington St. team which cancels out their TCU win in the computer math. Their win against DIV-II Chatanoooga isn't calculated so that's one less win into the equation. We have no DIV-II teams and our trump card... Mizzou. We just have to take care of Kansas and Aggies. OU will likely win out but they're still chasing the sun.
This isn't accurate. If Texas is a consensus #3 in the computers and OU is #4, and they are consensus flipped in the polls, then OU is in. (Polls count twice as much as the computers.) OU winning helps them in the computers, but it doesn't help us at all - because we also played the teams they will beat. If they beat OSU, our win over OU looks better, but our win over OSU looks worse - it's a neutral effect. They should be right behind us in the computers by the end of the season if they win out. If the human polls end the season as they are today and OU moves from 5th to 4th in the computers, they are already ahead of us. And that's assuming OU gains *nothing* at all from beating Tech and OSU. The only way we stay ahead is if, by beating Kansas and A&M while OU beats Tech and OSU, we *gain* ground in the human polls.
Sorry - I screwed this up. OU would move to 4th, but not jump us. They do need to gain some more votes in the human polls to jump us - but not all that many, and it's certainly far more likely than not that they would if they beat Tech.
BAMA/Boise OU/Utah I would rather see an episode of Golden Girls. Those are joke games. Make Utah and Boise play each other to see which sucks more.
Yes, there is. What you guys have "heard" is absolute crap. The amount of people who actually understand the BCS, among the actual media, can be counted on one hand. Texas gained 88 points in the Harris poll and 49 points in the Coaches poll for beating Baylor! Do you really think people were impressed by that game? Because they weren't. It's what happens every November -- voters reevaluate when they step back from the emotion of the moment (in this case, a loss for UT). Texas is substantially ahead of OU in the AP and Harris, and behind by an absurdly small amount in the coaches. It doesn't matter who OU plays. The overwhelming reason Texas is ahead of OU in the polls is because they played head-to-head, and Texas won by 10. Is that sufficient? Not entirely. I agree with SCF -- logically, it's not a flawless case. But it's the way voters vote. Unless something crazy happens like OU beating both Tech and OSU by 70-0 and UT sneaking past A&M 13-10 in Austin, OU has little to no shot at passing UT. Feel free to hold me to that statement.
For what it's worth, the AP is not relevant to the BCS. And Texas isn't substantially ahead in the Harris. They are ahead by 44 pts - in a poll with over 100 voters. That's less than the difference between #1 and #2, #2 and #3, #3 and #4, #5 and #6, and #6 and #7. Of the top 7 teams, it's the smallest margin between any two teams. Each time the undefeated team got beaten in this B12 vs. B12 setup (Mizzou, OU and Texas), the team getting the win has shot up the polls. Why do you think it would be different if OU were to defeat an undefeated Tech - particularly in a week that Texas is idle? Why would Okie State, Texas and Tech all get credit for their big wins and jump numerous other teams, but the voters wouldn't think OU is any better than they were before beating them? If OU beats Tech, they will instantly be the #2 team in the country, jumping over Tech, Florida and Texas (if we catch them next week). Voters certainly re-evaluate. But they aren't going to just look at Texas and OU in a head-to-head bubble, especially given the three-way tie. They will look at recent performance and impressiveness, and OU has looked absurdly impressive the last few weeks. And most importantly, they will look at the last few weeks and see OU beating a pair of top ten teams to close the season. The key for Texas staying ahead of OU in the BCS will be the relative positioning of OU, Texas, Tech, Utah, and Florida in the computers. Texas should be ahead of OU, but what Texas will need is one or more of those teams to get wedged between Texas and OU. Right now, Utah being wedged in at #4 is what's keeping us ahead of Florida despite them being solidly ahead in the two polls.
