Looking at the math, it's actually most possible than it seemed. We'd have to flip a lot of voters in the Harris, but it certainly is not impossible. A lot will depend on tiny movements in the computers as well. I'd give Texas about a 25-30% chance right now, which is better than I would have last night.
Not really 100% sure if these are updated (I think they are) Harris: 1. Alabama 1622 2. Florida 1512 3. Oklahoma 1486 4. Texas 1482 Harris: 1. Alabama 2839 2. Florida 2644 3. Oklahoma 2598 4. Texas 2577 DAMN!
Those are the AP and Harris from last week. Notice the completely different proportions. Edit: Notice the difference in points in the Harris poll (the 2nd one) is only 22. The coach's poll had OU leading Texas by 42 last week (1412-1370), and Texas came back with a 41 point swing. A similar proportioned swing gives Texas the lead in the Harris.
My bad, the top one is the AP Poll. http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/polls CBS SportsLine says these were posted today, 10 minutes ago. I think they are accurate.
They're not. CBS Sportsline always says that, every week -- it has to do with updating records, updating one poll (they did update the coaches), or even fixing typos -- but trust me, those aren't the polls. The numbers will definitely be different from last week. The question is in what direction.
I think if Texas flips the Harris poll margin from down 22 to up about 30, it will be super close depending on the computers. That means getting a net of about 50 votes out of 114 voters. In the coaches, we gained about 40 votes out of 61 voters, so it's definitely possible.
Tech lost their #1 vote, and both Texas and OU gained a vote in the official coaches poll: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm Doesn't affect anything, but at least we know there's not a loony coach out there voting for Tech.
Plus, it pretty much confirms that it's Stoops' brother and Leach putting OU at #1. I'm also guessing Urban is putting Florida at #1.
The Big 12 tie breaker is more important than the polls right now. Whoever wins the South controls their destiny. Win against Mizzou and you get an automatic bid to the BCS title game. So we need to really focus on that right now. The scenario: One of Texas or OU represents the South in the Big 12 game and happens to lose then the other will be in the NC title game. This will be a huge mess!
Thanks for updating that. It's difficult to make sure the polls I place in here are accurate when you are getting them from a third source i.e. cbssportsline or foxsports.com
AP Poll Out: RANK TEAM RECORD PTS LAST 1 Alabama (62) 12-0 1620 1 2 Florida (3) 11-1 1516 2 3 Texas 11-1 1488 4 4 Oklahoma 11-1 1480 3 5 Southern Cal 10-1 1355 5 6 Penn St. 11-1 1257 6 7 Utah 12-0 1216 8 8 Texas Tech 11-1 1197 7 9 Boise St. 12-0 1103 9 10 Ohio St. 10-2 1069 10 11 TCU 10-2 885 14 12 Ball St. 12-0 834 15 13 Cincinnati 10-2 824 16 14 Oklahoma St. 9-3 798 11 15 Georgia Tech 9-3 708 18 16 Oregon 9-3 630 19 17 Georgia 9-3 495 13 18 Boston College 9-3 482 20 19 Missouri 9-3 479 12 20 BYU 10-2 385 20 21 Michigan St. 9-3 312 22 22 Mississippi 8-4 280 25 23 Pittsburgh 8-3 241 NR 24 Northwestern 9-3 190 24 25 Oregon St. 8-4 122 17 http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/appoll.htm
That's not good. To go from 4 down to 8 up, that's a net gain of 12... Texas needs a much bigger proportion in the Harris to have a realistic chance.
