Ideally they beat both Tech and OU. UT has the tie breaker over them, and UT will probably remain ahead of them in the BCS after those wins.
Computers could make the difference. That and an unimpressive (even if winning) finish while Florida, UT or OU look great knocking off the other unbeatens. Besides, I don't care squat about Joe Pa and Penn State. He got a national championship when his team lost a game and another team from a power conference didn't (The Pony Express SMU team only had a tie with UT or Arkansas if I believe, yet lost out). I figure this largely evened out earlier years PSU and Joe Pa were left out. Plus, this year, it is totally PSU's fault for scheduling such an atrocious non conference schedule. At least SC tries to compliment being in a sucky conference where teams don't play all one another and don't have a conference championship by doing their best they can to schedule good non-conference foes. Even TOSU has done a little better of late by setting up home-and homes with Texas and SC in the last 4 years.
Updating. TCU losing should dent OU comp rankings--that was their best chance at a real quality win Texas could not get. Now Cincy vs WV (and finishing the big east strong) takes on more importance for OU. Mizzou taking care of the Kansas teams (Part. KSU, which OU plays but Texas doesn't) is important to Texas.
Barring some upset losses by Florida or Alabama (besides LSU), we're probably now looking at B12 Champ vs. SEC Champ for the national title. Winner of Florida vs. Alabama against whoever comes out of the B12 South.
Why FL? We are already above them in the BCS. Either way, since Penn St is now out of the mix I figure it will be a SEC-Big 12 title game. So we just need Tech to falter....
If a one loss team gets in it will be Florida if Texas Tech wins the Big 12. The BCS will not have two teams from the same conference in the title game. If Tech does not win out, it will be the SEC champ against Tech, Texas, or USC (if they win out).
USC has no way of catching whoever the B12 South winner is, unless they lose to Missouri in the championship game. The computers just won't let it happen due to the horribleness of the Pac10. OU is better positioned than Texas right now also due to their higher standing in the polls. As they play Tech and OSU, their computer rankings will catch us as well.
Because if Alabama wins out and Florida beats them in the SEC Championship Game, they will have beaten the #1 team the day before the final rankings come out. That will sway the voters in a big way.
It's not looking good for the Longhorns. In case of a 3-way tie between UT/Tech/OU, OU would more than likely get the bid out of the 3.
It is not so clear with the Big 12. If Texas, OU and Tech all have 1 loss Texas will be the best in the computers (the only one to play Mizzou, and Tech and OU have 2 horrible non-conference foes that hurt in comp polls), OU with the voters. So it could come down to how Texas plays vs A&M and OU versus OSU. How "pretty" those victories are. Other factors include how Cincy, TCU, Rice, Ark, etc, finish. Further, whoever represent the South in the Big 12 championship, don't forget they (likely) have Mizzou in the Big 12 championship. Mizzou is starting to play better again since the OSU-Texas stretch. This could allow a non-division winner but 1 loss team (e.g., Texas or OU) get back into it. As an aside, say if Tech loses to OU and OU loses at OSU, Tech would represent the South in the Big 12 game, but I don't think they could catch a 1-loss Texas even beating Mizzou. It would be like the NU-Colorado thing many years back. One last scenario. It is not totally crazy that the Big 12 gets both teams in the championship. An upset by Auburn of Bama or SC/at FSU of Florida and there is a real possibility. I do believe Bama is pretty vulnearable. Excellent defense, but their offense is weak. A bad day by the defense or a few TOs--think Iowa-Penn State--and it could happen. Lots of games left--the last few years have shown us not to take anythign for granted.
