If the result is something along these lines, I expect a wave of super delegates to announce for Obama in the next week.
Good Lord, Obama by 17 or 18 in NC? I think that'd be nuts. I'll go on the record instead of just sniping :Clinton takes Indiana by 5 - it will round to 6, and that's what the news'll initially report. Obama wins NC by 12.
My other predictions from long ago were. NC - Obama by 16 IA - Hillary by 7 I guess I'll stick by those. But if I were to pick again I would pick Hillary to do better.
Chuck Todd estimates that if this is close to the final tally (which is what he sees happening) Obama would receive a net gain of about 60,000 popular votes and pledged dels would be basically a wash with Obama coming out ahead by about 8.
Well, here in OR, we got our ballots over the weekend and I marked mine up last night. I voted for a whole slate of homo-lovin' Jesus-hatin' flag burnin' tax grabbin' peaceniks. In that spirit, I'll predict... NC: Obama +14 IN: Obama -3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html Of all the most recent polls, only one has Obama winning by more than 10 in NC- that's Zogby with 14. Zogby has been awful all season long. The next highest is PPP with Obama by 10. The other five have Obama winning by 4 to 9. In previous states like SC the black vote was underestimated and Obama massively outperformed the polls. He could do that today... but another argument is that today is a different day, and the white vote is turning against him. In any case all of these predictions of 15-20 point wins for Obama in NC seem pretty high.
The next peacenik Democrat elected to any position of significance will be the first, I mean second after Kucinich.
Where have you been? Any Dem with the exception of Lieberman is by definition a peacenik troop hater, as is anyone who doesn't think we should stay the course.
Zogby got that reputation from a spectacular failure in California. But otherwise, they've been pretty decent. Most recently, they hit Pennsylvania dead on, while other polls were showing a close race. Here's a pretty good analysis of this effect: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/north-carolina-prediction-obama-by.html They are guessing just like anyone else, but they break down the black vote undercounting and when it seems to happen most and things like that. Their model comes up with a 17 pt win, for whatever that's worth.
