If I want to look at a stat that has the least amount of confounding factors for a rookie on a **** team it would be something along the lines of their iso scoring efficiency like points per possession. Because an iso possession is you vs your defender and your side cleared. Green is 13th in the entire league last year in ppp for iso possessions for players with 2 or more possessions and was by far the youngest player in the top 20 on that list. We can also look at his iso defensive ratings.
So if you think that all of the stats and metrics are worthless, how would you give him (or anyone) a proper rating? Surely you don’t want all 82 games of all the teams do you?
But my assumption is that you watch almost no games, correct? There’s 1230 games every season, how many can you possibly even watch.
ESPN'S NBA rank is explicitly not a measure of "performance over the previous NBA regular season from October 2021 to March 2022" it's pretty much "how do they rank right now" so to suggest Jalen Green is not even close to an NBA rotation player right now as you have a bunch is a total joke. There is no good single metric that is optimized to measure rookies on tanking teams to my knowledge. Basically you'd have to measure growth curve and project it forward. Essentially that's what all rookie team is for, and it seems to work fine
Huh? that's not remotely what i said. I said he wasn't a good nba player LAST season, not that he won't be THIS season. I fully expect him to be a legit top 100 player this season and his ceiling is possibly top 50 (though not likely as a 20 year old)
I’m not trying to present a narrative about Green one way or the other. Green has flashed awesome potential for long stretches, and I hope he’s a top five player of all time and he should have been rated higher than #62. I was just observing that Green directly contributed to the Rocket’s offense being particularly terrible at the beginning of last year. He was not just an unlucky victim of variance. He shot less than 29% from 3 on heavy volume through January. That bricklaying was a meaningful part of why the Rox offense was so bad. It wasnt ‘his fault’, but he also wasnt just a bystander.
Well, with 30 NBA teams that would mean, on average he would be about the 4th best player in a NBA starting 5. And thats an average over every team, not just playoff teams. He is already a really good isolation player that can legitimately score from 3, perimeter, at the rim and from the line. Scoring is a pretty important skill in todays NBA… I expect him to be our best player next season - but of course I hope his defense, passing, ball handling and rebounding improves next season, just as I hope he developes a floater and gets better at finishing through contact. One thing that we shouldn‘t forget is, that he already has shown massive improvements in his game during last season both on the offensive and the defensive side. So it is not unreasonable to expect him to keep on improving. So ceiling top 50 sounds low to me (that would mean on average he would be worse than most second best players on NBA starting 5s).
