You really think Lebron will spend much time guarding Dirk? Assuming the starting lineups don't change, that means Bosh will have to guard Marion.
i think lebron will guard dirk moreso than he guarded rose. let's put it this way: to start, lebron will guard marion as both field their traditional starting lineups. joel anthony will be on dirk to start. bosh will guard chandler, bibby guards kidd, and wade guards stevenson. however, when the heat go small: either with chalmers/miller/bron/haslem/bosh, bron/haslem will guard dirk. if haslmen isn't on the court and the heat go small, bron will guard dirk. and expect very little double teams against dirk in this series.
To be honest, I'm not impressed with Iggy/Pierce/Rose/Rondo. They all have fundamental flaws in their games. Iggy can't handle the ball or shoot that well. Pierce has lost most of his athleticism. And Rose is a poor shooter. And not only is Rondo a poor shooter, he was playing with one arm. In regards to Lebron vs Rose, I was impressed with Lebron's quickness, but let's not forget that Rose was having difficulties scoring even before Lebron guarded him.
I understand that you aren't impressed. But let's just say you may be the only person not saying LeBron's defense has had a major impact this postseason.
It's hard to say. The Heat closed with him at the 4 and guarding KG. But that was before Haslem was back. If Haslem is effective then I can see them closing with Bosh/Haslem/LeBron/Wade/Miller or Jones. If Haslem is struggling then I can see them closing with Bosh at the 5 and LeBron at the 4.
i don't think haslem is fully back physically from his injury to guard dirk much. i'm sure you'll see it in game 1 for a brief stretch to see how haslem does. if he does well, he'll stay on dirk; if he doesn't for maybe max 2 possessions, he won't be on him again. i expect lebron to be on him for at least 15-20 minutes in a game. but it also depends on how the game is going. if dirk isn't on fire, then lebron won't be on him until the end of the game. if dirk is, lebron will switch onto him with the quickness. spo most likely believes lebron could shut down anybody outside of dwight howard right now.
Kidd will score some, but it's his ability to set up the offense that will be crucial to Dallas's success, maybe even more than getting Nowitzki his shots. Kidd or Nowtizki going off alone isn't going to get it done, and Kidd will have to make sure everyone else is involved. And you're right, while Marion and Stevenson might slow down James and Wade for short spans, they're definitely not going to be able to do it for the entire series. It's definitely take out-of-this-world team defense and near-perfect rotation to get the job done. But I think they have the personnel, health, intelligence and desire/will to pull off a huge upset.
So if the Heat uses that small lineup, what lineup do you think Dallas will have on the floor? Btw, if Bosh guards Chandler, Chandler will get deep positioning in the paint whenever he wants unless the Refs fall for Bosh's flops.
Seems like a Dallas lineup of Chandler, Dirk, Kidd, Terry, and Marion would be effective against that lineup. I think that overall, Miami has the advantage, but it depends on the refs. If they let the players play physical, Dallas wins. If not, Miami.
this is where it gets interesting. the mavs' best offensive lineup MUST have barea and terry on the floor. that's a HUGE advantage in the heat's favor as one of them will be forced to guard wade. i'm sure marion will be the primary defender on lebron. the heat team rebounds, so it doesn't really matter about the bosh/chandler matchup on the boards. bosh couldn't do jack for the most part as boozer had a couple of huge rebounding games, along with noah. the heat are small up front in general so technically they always are small. they gang rebound. when i say go small, mike miller/james jones is in instead of joel anthony, which provides the heat with more offense. and plus, i expect dallas' bigs to be in foul trouble quite a bit. tyson chandler averaged 4 fouls playing a team with only one legit penetrator in westbrook. expect him to be in foul trouble quite a bit. then comes in haywood...and well... the heat can counter a lot of what the mavs want to do offensively and defensively. if the mavs put in their scorers, their defense will be sacrificed. if the mavs want to stay with the lineup of kidd/stevenson/marion for defense, they'll struggle to score vs this heat defense.
If it's a huge advantage for Miami, then expect Dallas to bench Barea and put Kidd on Mike Miller and Terry on Wade. Size matters. Boozer has a short reach and a short vertical. With Kidd, Marion, Chandler, and Dirk, Dallas is also capable of gang rebounding, except they'll have 7 footers leading the way. Then who can stop Chandler from getting into the paint? Westbrook was a legit penetrator. So was Harden. And even though Durant isn't a good ball-handler, he's great at cutting to the basket. And Collison/Ibaka would cut to the basket when an OKC wing penetrated. So OKC had a lot of people attacking the basket. Marion and Kidd are both capable of scoring. And Stevenson shot well in the regular season so he also has the capacity to score.
so you want terry to be on wade? that is asking for disaster. i will admit the heat will not be winning the rebounding battle regularly in the series. but again, they only won the rebounding battle one time in 5 games vs the bulls. as long as the heat are within 5 every game, they'll win the game. noah is a much much better offensive rebounder than chandler and he plays with a higher energy level. so if the heat were able to stay competitive on the boards vs THE BEST REBOUNDING TEAM (AND OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING) in the L, the heat are fine vs the mavs. no doubt. OKC was able to draw alot of fouls going to the basket. that meant the mavs had trouble stopping westbrook and harden going to the basket. therefore, lebron and wade will have very little trouble going to the basket and drawing fouls. plus, both are better finishers around the rim than westbrook or harden. like i said, i expect lebron and wade to shoot over 50% in the series; they should have a field day offensively. kidd is only capable of shooting wide open 3s. and the heat are THE BEST at rotating to 3pt shooters right now. stevenson plays 15 minutes per game in the playoffs while shooting 27%. let's say he's only in there to guard wade to start the game. if he gets to play more, advantage miami. if he gets to play less, terry will play more. advantage miami. marion scores just like how a taj gibson would score: off of 2nd opportunities or off of effort plays. a haslem will make him irrelevant just like taj gibson was made irrelevant. for the mavs to win, they have to make this game in the 100s. that means they are scoring. if it's a defensive series, expect the heat to win this in 5.
That makes no sense. Dirk isn't playing worse defense than Lebron and handing out less assists because of "roles", it's because he can't. Hence Lebron, who is capable of better defense and playmaking, is playing better than him in the playoffs.
I'm definitely rooting for the Mavericks -- the only reason not to is because of some stupid "I hate everything about Dallas" mindset -- but I'm going to predict Heat in 6.
Then put Kidd on Wade and Terry on Mike Miller. Not necessarily. Don't forget that Dallas had several 4th quarter comebacks against LA and OKC. They know how to execute. Stats don't agree with you. The Mavs team has players who have size and strength (Chandler, Haywood, Dirk, Marion, Kidd). If they focused on it, they could be a much better rebounding team than they actually are. Lebron and Wade have been settling for perimeter shots more frequently. Westbrook/Harden actually tried to attack the basket. And it comes down to how the refs officiate the game. Care to make a tipjar wager on that? The Bulls had plenty of open looks against the Miami defense. And Dallas has better shooters. Stevenson would probably start the game against Lebron. He's been sucking it up in the playoffs, but he was shooting well in the regular season. Have you ever watched Marion play? If Haslem guards him, Marion will just run around screens all day and cut to the basket.
I can't see the Heat losing this. They're peaking and tapping into their goliath potential. 2.5 franchise players to 1. Homecourt with Homecourt NBA officiating in tow. Potential for LeBron sliding over to double and ballhawk on Dirk. The flipside is, Diggler is in god mode right now and Carlisle has quietly gotten Dallas to play the best two way team basketball that they've ever played in franchise history. But I don't see Mavs playing better defense than the Bulls did. Heat will definitely drop at least one of the 3 Dallas games, but this doesn't go 7, in my view.
