There’s probably a reasonable chance that if Houston is picking at 4, that one of the three teams picking ahead of them values Ivey or Sharpe more than one of those bigs. Anyone want to speculate what our chances of getting a top 3 big is if we pick at 4? 25%?
good comp. jabari is a better defender. Jamison, if I recall, was a better post player. different era's required different skills though.
Il At this point it will all depend on workouts. I think Ivey can play himself in a top 3 pick in private, but I think Sharpe is in the 5-8 range. If a big falls to us at 4, I think it will be Banchero
look at the teams that almost certainly wouldn't be interested in adding any of the 3 bigs over an elite athletic guard/wing of similar tier (CLE, WAS, NOP) add up their odds of a top 3 pick (30.6%) divide by 3 since there are 3 lotteries, one for each of the first 3 picks. 10.2% chance that one of the bigs falls to #4. Now add in the teams who could go either way (LAC, NYK, SAS and DET) = 66.3% total, divided by the 3 lotteries = 22.1%. I believe the rest of the teams (HOU, ORL, OKC, IND, POR, SAC, CHA) would prefer to select one of the bigs. So I'd very scientifically surmise a range of 10-32%. no need for statisticians to tell me why I'm wrong.
The more we evaluate the 3 bigs the more I'm not liking any of them as a #1 overall option. I almost hope we get the second or third because any one of these players could be a decent hit or a hurtful miss. Chet - 15 ppg and 9 boards but can get 2 blocks a game 1st year. 25 ppg max in his prime but I wonder if he can stay healthy. Jabari - 14 ppg and 7 boards with 2 assists his 1st year. 22 ppg max in his prime and may turn into a solid starting spot shooter or excellent 6th man over time (ala Patrick Patterson) Banchero - 18 ppg and 10 boards with 2.5 assists 1st year. If he can summon Karl Malone for even a few seasons then perhaps 28 ppg with 12 boards in his prime. I'd even take Carlos Boozer in his prime but see his defense not nearly as good as his offense. Ivey - No where near an elite guard. He may have a season where he scores but I think it's Isaiah Thomas scoring where there's no way he can keep that up for a career and could be at the expense of his team winning games. 13 ppg and 6 assists 1st year with sub .400 FG% and barely .300 3pt. Maybe 21 ppg in his prime with 8 assists but no way I would take him with 2 guards already when we need a big (unless he's the best available and even then a possible trade bait)
It doesn’t matter how good Jalen gets if you don’t pair him with quality bigs we will never go anywhere! Portis and Giannis look like the twin towers out there-
Chet lower rebounds than Paolo? Don’t think that happens, really at any point. Chet is a far better rebounder
It depends on what Chet will be utilized as. If they spread him out as a shooter then KD rebounds + I could see. Paolo will get rebounds by posting up most of the game (ala Boozer) thus will fall into them easier.
Chet’s rebound rate and percentage is pretty significantly higher. Don’t think there’s really any way he out rebounds him.
Durant averaged 11 boards a game in college. Best in NBA is 8.3. It will depend on how he's used by the team he plays for, but if it's a PF wing player then I don't see 10+ average boards for him often
no matter his role on offense, he will protect the rim on defense. most rebounds are defensive rebounds. I don't see why he can't keep up his rebounding in the nba. wasn't he used as a PF wing in college and still rebounded how he did... in college? also, rates for rebounding blocks and steals are highly projectable to the nba.
Wood is a perimeter big who averages double digit rebounds as a starter. Chet is much longer and more physical.
I don't know about that. I think Jabari can match Jamison's prime scoring output and efficiency fairly quickly, maybe in less than a few years. Defensively - which is half of their game if we're comparing games - I think Jabari is going to be a great defender while Jamison was rarely above average. Jamison was a fun player to watch though!!
