1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight's NBA Player projections

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by DeAleck, Oct 10, 2015.

  1. DeAleck

    DeAleck Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2003
    Messages:
    3,204
    Likes Received:
    224
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/

    I've been playing with this site for the past hour or so. It is very interesting that it uses a bunch of stats/metrics to find a player's closest comps in NBA history, and use their career trajectories to project this player's future production.

    Here are the Rockets players in their categories:

    Lawson: average starter
    Beverley: rotational player
    Harden: MVP Candidate
    Trevor Ariza: average starter
    TJones: up-and-comer
    DMo: rotational player
    Dwight: key role player

    Basically Harden is the only all-star level player. All the other top teams in the west have multiple all-star level players.

    By the way, Derrick Rose has the funniest category.
     
  2. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2002
    Messages:
    46,550
    Likes Received:
    6,130
    The comps for Dwight are really terrible.

    I like the idea but I'm not sure just using War works
     
  3. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2009
    Messages:
    24,403
    Likes Received:
    7,047
    Dwight role-player, wtf?
     
  4. BigShasta

    BigShasta Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2014
    Messages:
    5,211
    Likes Received:
    4,811
    538 Nba projections are terrible. None of his projections were ever close last season
     
  5. OpenLayup-Why3?

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2015
    Messages:
    2,331
    Likes Received:
    58
    Welp, they still show DMo at 222lbs so you can't expect any accuracy from them.
     
  6. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2002
    Messages:
    34,547
    Likes Received:
    33,405
    In general, I have not been impressed by 538's sports work (nor their science articles, TBH). I think they just do sports because $ but Silver's talent really seems to be political projections more than anything else.

    I know "data are data" but something eludes them in sports. Or they bore me to tears in any case.
     
  7. wizkid83

    wizkid83 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2002
    Messages:
    6,331
    Likes Received:
    845
    Look at Dwight's vs. Jordan's chart. Outside of Dwight having more usage% (which is supposed to be good) they're the same. One is a borderline all start and the other is a key role player...
     
  8. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2008
    Messages:
    1,686
    Likes Received:
    842
    I played around with that site for a while too but it seems both inconsistent and overly dependent on a few variables.

    For example, a guy like Bradley Beal, who everyone knows is talented, but hasn't shown much in terms of advanced stats, gets the benefit of the doubt and is dubbed a "Future All-Star". Elfrid Payton, who I like, also gets that label, while having his fair share of statistical struggles last year.

    Kawhi, who everyone knows is an elite defender and an advanced stats darling, gets an "MVP candidate" label, even though nobody in their right mind thinks he will win one in his career.

    I could go on about the "groupings", but overall their statistical models are just faulty and inconclusive.

    That said, it's still fun to play around with.
     
  9. DreamShook

    DreamShook Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    70,038
    Likes Received:
    113,017
    Examples? Just curious.
     
  10. Firebomb525

    Firebomb525 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2009
    Messages:
    4,090
    Likes Received:
    424
    There are EIGHT MVP candidates, according to the CARMELO projections (7 are in the west, and the other is LeBron James)

    In order to see which players this system viewed as 'All-Star' level, I took 'MVP', 'All-Star', and 'Borderline All-Star' players and separated them by conference.

    Eastern Conference
    All-Stars (6):
    Jimmy Butler
    Kyrie Irving
    LeBron James [MVP Candidate]
    Kevin Love
    Kyle Lowry
    John Wall

    Borderline All-Stars (8):
    Kyle Korver
    Paul Millsap
    Nicolas Batum
    Joakim Noah
    George Hill
    Paul George
    Khris Middleton
    Greg Monroe

    Western Conference
    All-Stars (11):
    Stephen Curry [MVP Candidate]
    Draymond Green
    James Harden [MVP Candidate]
    Chris Paul [MVP Candidate]
    Blake Griffin
    Anthony Davis [MVP Candidate]
    Kevin Durant [MVP Candidate]
    Russell Westbrook [MVP Candidate]
    Damian Lilliard
    DeMarcus Cousins
    Kawhi Leonard [MVP Candidate]

    Borderline All-Stars (14):
    Chandler Parsons
    Klay Thompson
    DeAndre Jordan
    Mike Conley
    Marc Gasol
    Ricky Rubio
    Jrue Holiday
    Serge Ibaka
    Eric Bledsoe
    Tyson Chandler
    Danny Green
    Tim Duncan
    Gordon Hayward
    Derrick Favors


    The talent disparity is evident between conferences. These are the 'worthy' selections, but I'm sure Kobe, Wade and Carmelo will be voted in. Thoughts? (Also, interesting what they put for Rose and Whiteside haha.)
     
  11. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,431
    Likes Received:
    23
    This list is pretty legit. I wouldn't take Dwight over any of those centers listed (Cousins, Gasol, Jordan) aside from Chandler.

    Kawhi has legit MVP candidate potential and he's only 24.
     
  12. malakas

    malakas Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2014
    Messages:
    20,167
    Likes Received:
    15,380
    It's worthless to develop such a projection and use a database with wrong data like wrong heights, and positions. :rolleyes:
    They are also using this to make nba preview predictions and according to them a team of 10 role players and no star will win around 50 games. (Boston).
     
  13. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,431
    Likes Received:
    23
    To be fair, they're projecting Marcus Smart to be a future all-star and it's also the Eastern Conference.
     
  14. malakas

    malakas Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2014
    Messages:
    20,167
    Likes Received:
    15,380
    you just proved my point if they are projecting him for next year.:grin: (or for any year in my opinion even with the Boston media hype machine).
     
  15. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,431
    Likes Received:
    23
    Also they projected them at 48 wins, what did Boston win last year? 40-42? It's not that crazy to think with improvements from Smart, Olnyk, Sullinger they could win a few more games.
     
  16. malakas

    malakas Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2014
    Messages:
    20,167
    Likes Received:
    15,380
    It's crazy. But I will make a thread about the east projections because it will be a bloodbath and it will be interesting to see what everyone else thinks.
    -Do you know how old is Olynyk? And he can't improve his wingspan. How can we expect him to improve at defence with such bad athletic profile? Sullinger supposedly went into a contract year/intervention/rehab diet and still looks fat.
    And they took advantage of a tanking east to reach that record in the last two months of the season when half the east was tanking like mad.
    Amir Johnson is always every year injured and loses a lot of games. After him there is no rim protection yet again. You have a team with half guards and half pfs with no good rim protecting C and inside defence, except Amir and with no great wings.

    What I hate about thsi things is that they think that a team projections is like math. Just add every players WARP and you got the total wins. But it doesn't work like this. It's not arithmetic. With no interior defence and with no good wings except maybe bradley and with no star ...
     
  17. digitallinh

    digitallinh Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,431
    Likes Received:
    23
    I agree with you, one shouldn't use the team projections as some type of crystal ball to determine how many games we're going to win.

    However, what I do find useful about it is comparing Team A to Team B, so instead of saying Team A is going to win 48 games, you can say, Boston is probably better than Charlotte.

    I actually agree with this and think Boston has a chance to surprise a lot of people next year in a weak Eastern Conference. They are at minimum a playoff team over there.
     
  18. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2013
    Messages:
    7,003
    Likes Received:
    2,812
    Let's face it,

    the only reason ESPN is pushing this crappy website is just because Grantland is done after Simons departed.
     
  19. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2011
    Messages:
    27,724
    Likes Received:
    21,396
    Yeah Dwight is a key role player while horse **** like Portions, Jrue Holiday, Rubio etc are borderline all stars.

    Makes sense.

    **** them
     

Share This Page