My (Very) Early Top-30 Prospects for 2014

Obviously this will change considerably as the season progresses. This is more an early season reference point/who to watch list.

Not Included (Have them slated for 2015 entry): PG Kasey Hill; SG Aaron Harrison; C Kaleb Tarczewski; PF Chris Walker; C Dakari Johnson; PF Marcus Lee; SG Jabari Bird
Next 5: PF Cory Jefferson; SF Sam Dekker; SF LaQuinton Ross; PF/SF Alex Poythress; PG Jahii Carson

#30: Perry Ellis | PF | 6’8” 230 | Kansas | 20
What’s to Like: Efficient, skilled and smart offensively.
What’s Concerning: Below-average size, lacks great athleticism. Low ceiling?

#29: Isaiah Austin | C/PF | 7’1” 225 | Baylor | 20
What’s to Like: Great skillset and range for his size. Stretch-big potential.
What’s Concerning: Soft on the glass, soft overall. Lacks assertiveness.

#28: Jordan Adams | SG | 6’5” 220 | UCLA | 19
What’s to Like: Good size, natural scoring instincts, ballhawk defensively.
What’s Concerning: Average shooter, not a standout athlete.

#27: CJ Fair | SF | Syyracuse | 6’8” 220 | 22
What’s to Like: Nice size and athleticism, smooth J.
What’s Concerning: Lacks ball-handling/creating ability for 3 spot. Already 22.

#26: Dwight Powell | PF | 6’10” 235 | Stanford | 22
What’s to Like: Great size and skillset for position. Fluid for size.
What’s Concerning: Lacks physicality, average defensively. Already 22.

#25: Rasheed Sulaimon | SG | 6’4” 190 | Duke | 19
What’s to Like: Picture-perfect jumper, underrated athlete.
What’s Concerning: Below-average size, can he contribute elsewhere?

#24: TJ Warren | SF | 6’8” 230 | NC State | 20
What’s to Like: Big-bodied scorer with mid-range game and instincts. Efficient.
What’s Concerning: Below-average athlete, what else can he do?

#23: Semaj Christon | PG | 6’3” 190 | Xavier | 21
What’s to Like: Great size and athleticism. Natural shot creator. Upside?
What’s Concerning: PG skills. TO prone. Below-average shooter.

#22: Doug McDermott | SF/PF | 6’7” 230 | Creighton | 21
What’s to Like: Fantastic shooter who can score in a variety of ways. Very efficient.
What’s Concerning: Tweener. Lacks athleticism. Defensive liability.

#21: Willie Cauley-Stein | C | 7’0” 250 | Kentucky | 20
What’s to Like: Elite mix of size, athleticism and fluidity. Upside.
What’s Concerning: Court-awareness. Very raw on both ends.

#20: Adreian Payne | C/PF | 6’10” 235 | Michigan State | 22
What’s to Like: Long athlete who can run/jump. Nice form/range on his J.
What’s Concerning: Already 22. Has a lung condition. Isn’t incredibly physical.

#19: Montrezl Harrell | PF | 6’8” 245 | Louisville | 19
What’s to Like: Strong, active athlete with a great motor. Great finisher. Long arms.
What’s Concerning: Average height. Skill-level is lacking.

#18: Jerami Grant | SF | 6’9” 205 | Syracuse | 19
What’s to Like: Ridiculous length, great athlete, high-level defensive potential.
What’s Concerning: Raw offensively. Lacks creating ability. FT shooting.

#17: Rodney Hood | SF | 6’8” 200 | Duke | 21
What’s to Like: Fluid/athletic wing with a smooth J. Still improving. Defensive upside?
What’s Concerning: Average length. Creating ability.

#16: Noah Vonleh | PF | 6’10” 240 | Indiana | 18
What’s to Like: Great length/size. High IQ for age. Nice skill level, great rebounder.
What’s Concerning: Developing offensively, not an explosive athlete.

#15: Dario Saric | PF/SF | 6’10” 230 | Croatia | 19
What’s to Like: Has perimeter skills in a 4 body. Good motor.
What’s Concerning: Poor foot speed/below-average athleticism. Inconsistent shooter.

#14: Gary Harris | SG | 6’4” 210 | Michigan State | 19
What’s to Like: Strong SG with great outside stroke. High IQ, good defender. Solid athlete.
What’s Concerning: Height/length are average. Not dynamic with the ball.

#13 Andrew Harrison | PG | 6’5” 210 | Kentucky | 19
What’s to Like: Big PG with a tight handle, competitiveness, creating ability and upside.
What’s Concerning: Has looked raw thus far. Ball-dominant. Inconsistent J. Immature?

#12 Mario Hezonja | SF/SG | 6’7” 200 | Croatia | 18
What’s to Like: Natural scorer/shooter with solid athleticism. Competitive. Can create for himself.
What’s Concerning: Needs bulk, defense is lacking. Immaturity?

#11: Mitch McGary | C/PF | 6’10” 265 | Michigan | 21
What’s to Like: Wide bodied big with great feet. Good finisher, solid athlete. Strong, with nice hands. Great on the glass.
What’s Concerning: Not great defensively. FT% is poor. Upside?

#10: Glenn Robinson III | SF/SG | 6’6” 215 | Michigan | 19
What’s to Like: Smooth athlete with nice frame and fluidity. Great looking J. Efficient scorer. Upside?
What’s Concerning: Unselfish to a fault, almost passive. Ball handling needs work.

#9: Aaron Gordon | PF/SF | 6’8” 220 | Arizona | 18
What’s to Like: Truly an elite athlete. Fantastic finisher with high activity level. Has some offensive skills to build upon.
What’s Concerning: Tweener potential. Lacks size/bulk to play inside, lacks ball-skills and consistent J to play outside.

#8: Wayne Selden | SG | 6’5” 230 | Kansas | 19
What’s to Like: Thick build; very strong. Good athlete, plays maturely for age. Can score, pass and create.
What’s Concerning: Jumper consistency. Doesn’t fully utilize his physical tools?

#7: James Young | SG/SF | 6’6” 210 | Kentucky | 18
What’s to Like: Great size and athleticism. Lefty with a great J who can light it up. Plays well without the ball. Upside.
What’s Concerning: Developing ball skills. Shot selection?

#6: Joel Embiid | C | 7’1” 240 | Kansas | 19
What’s to Like: A blank canvas without many caps (just started playing). Huge/long C with great athleticism. Very fluid, natural shot-blocker. Despite rawness, shows promise on O.
What’s Concerning: Extremely raw, obviously. Needs proper coaching to develop. Risk?

#5: Dante Exum | SG/PG | 6’6” 185 | Australia | 18
What’s to Like: Smooth combo with great size. Advanced skillset for age; natural scorer and passer. Great feel for the game. Growth potential.
What’s Concerning: Lacks muscle. Jumper is still developing. Not a standout in any area?

#4: Marcus Smart | PG | 6’4” 225 | Oklahoma State | 19
What’s to Like: Huge PG with a winner’s mentality. Great motor; a true impact defender. Good athlete who gets to the rim with his strength. Rebounds well; Intangibles. A leader.
What’s Concerning: Not a natural PG. Ball-handling for position. TO prone. Inconsistent outside shooter. Shot selection.

#3: Julius Randle | PF | 6’9” 250 | Kentucky | 18
What’s to Like: Ridiculous strength and motor. Finishes extremely well, good athlete. Great ball skills for size/position. Dominating rebounder. Uses his body very well.
What’s Concerning: Post-game needs polish, relies too much on “bully ball”. Not an impact defender. Height/length are average.

#2: Jabari Parker | SF | 6’8” 240 | Duke | 18
What’s to Like: Elite skill-level for position/age. Great size/fluidity for size. Fantastic scorer, shooter and shot creator. Natural passer and possesses a natural court awareness.
What’s Concerning: Good but not great athlete. Can he stay with elite NBA 3s on D? Body is chunky. Doesn’t always use his size to his advantage.

#1: Andrew Wiggins | SF | 6’8” 205 | Kansas | 18
What’s to Like: God-tier athlete, inside and out. Perfect frame. Explosive finisher. Elite defensive potential, high-level offensive upside.
What’s Concerning: Ball skills need quite a bit of development. Unorthodox/inconsistent jumper. Needs bulk.

 

Thanks.

I have my doubts about Exum as well...He doesn't stand out athletically or in any specific area, as I said in the OP. He reminds me of Doug Christie, or a rich man's Alec Burks (or hell, even Reece Gaines - only as a prospect ha). He does have an advanced/mature/complete game for his age though, and other scouts seem to be raving over his recent performances since be broke out at the Nike Hoop Summit. I'll keep an eye on him this year, because I haven't been that impressed with him thus far, but with some (DX) grouping him with the top-3, there's clearly something special they see.

You may be right about Embiid. I was floored by his natural tools in the Duke game, even if his numbers weren't special. Not only does he have prototypical size/length/athleticism/fluidity for his position, he looks like a naturally skilled guy who just hasn't gained the necessary polish yet. He shows promising passing ability, form and movement on O, despite his minimal experience playing the sport. With experience and coaching, he could develop a ton on that end. Defensively he seems destined to be a force. It's still very early to say though, and he still has a long, long way to go before becoming a legitimate NBA C.

 

Update (didn't change the ages, if their birthday passed, lol)

#1: Andrew Wiggins | SF | 6'8" 205 | Kansas | 18 | [0]
- Some have grown critical of his passivity, but I really think the packed paints, half-court centric game, and inside-first philosophy of KU isn't ideal for him. His biggest knocks at the moment (lack of bulk, developing ball-skills and assertiveness) are all things that I think he'll develop at the next level.

#2: Jabari Parker | SF/PF | 6'8" 240 | Duke | 18 | [0]

#3: Joel Embiid | C | 7'1" 245 | Kansas | 19 | [+3]
- He's really got it all in terms of a foundation on both ends. Still has quite a bit of developing to do. obviously. But the impact he already makes (at this early stage of development) is undeniable.

#4: Marcus Smart | PG/SG | 6'4" 225 | Oklahoma State | [0]
- I'm starting to see a lot of SG potential in Smart, in a ball-dominant/creating role (ala Wade/Harden). He plays bigger than his size, and could have an early D-Wade type transition (in his function, not play style).

#5: Julius Randle | PF | 6'9" 250 | Kentucky | 18 | [-2]
- It's not that Randle has dropped, it's that the two above have risen. I do think he'll be a high PPG/RPG guy, but many NBA PFs who fall in that 2-stat window don't make as big of an impact as their 20-10ish numbers would suggest.

#6: Dante Exum | SG/PF | 6'6" 185 | Australia | 18 | [-1]

#7: Rodney Hood | SF | Duke | 6'8" 210 | 21 | [+10]
- He really looks the part of a great scoring offensive wing. That said, there's definitely a noticeable drop-off after #6.

#8: Noah Vonleh | PF | 6’10” 240 | Indiana | 18 | [+8]
- Has really impressed with his length/motor/skill level.

#9: Wayne Selden | SG | 6’5” 230 | Kansas | 19 | [-1]
- I'm a big fan of his mature game, but I'd like to see more assertiveness.

#10: James Young | SG/SF | 6’6” 210 | Kentucky | 18 | [-3]
- Is still raw, and has some efficiency issues, but has lots of tools.

#11: Aaron Gordon | PF/SF | 6’8” 220 | Arizona | 18 | [-2]
- It's hard for me to see him not becoming a 'tweener. But the "upside" keeps him high.

#12: Zach Lavine | SG | 6'5" 185 | UCLA | 18 | [+ a lot]
- The huge riser on boards all over. Has a great stroke and athleticism, but isn't physical and hasn't learned to fully utilize his gifts (is mostly a shooter at this point). Has a very enticing upside though.

#13: Willie Cauley-Stein | C | 7’0” 250 | Kentucky | 20 | [+8]
- The quintessential raw freak athlete with defensive upside C prospect

#14: Montrezl Harrell | PF | 6’8” 245 | Louisville | 19 | [+5]
- The quintessential high-motor physical undersized athletic PF prospect.

#15: Dario Saric | PF/SF | 6’10” 230 | Croatia | 19

#16: Jordan Adams | SG | 6’5” 220 | UCLA | 19 | [+12]
- This guy has some great tools, from his size to his scoring ability (22ppg in 30 mpg) and his defensive impact (3.3 spg). If he lasts, he'd be a great fit for the Rockets.

#17: Gary Harris | SG | 6’4” 210 | Michigan State | 19 | [-3]
Has been less efficient in a more featured role.

#18: TJ Warren | SF | 6’8” 230 | NC State | 20 | [+6]

#19: Andrew Harrison | PG | 6’5” 210 | Kentucky | 19 | [-6]

#20 Mario Hezonja | SF/SG | 6’7” 200 | Croatia | 18 | [-8]

#21: Jerami Grant | SF | 6’9” 205 | Syracuse | 19 | [-3]

#22: Adreian Payne | C/PF | 6’10” 235 | Michigan State | 22 | [-1]

#23: Doug McDermott | SF/PF | 6’7” 230 | Creighton | 21 | [-1]

#24: Mitch McGary | C/PF | 6’10” 265 | Michigan | 21 | [-13]
- He's been recovering from an injury, so maybe this drop isn't fair, but my early ranking was based on him really enforcing himself inside.

#25: Jahii Carson | PG | 5’10” 175 | Arizona State | 21 | [+10]
- Small explosive scorer. Projects as a bench player, but a an impactful one.

#26: Semaj Christon | PG | 6’3” 190 | Xavier | 21 | [-3]
- Hasn't displayed much of an improvement in his PG skills thus far.

#27: Spencer Dinwiddie | SG | 6'6" 205 | Colorado | 20 | [+?]
- Smart, good-sized SG who projects as a solid role player.

#28: Glenn Robinson III | SF/SG | 6’6” 215 | Michigan | 19 | [-18]
- His complete and utter lack of assertiveness has been a huge disappointment.

#29: Aaron Harrison | SG | 6'5" 210 | Kentucky | 19 | [+?]
- Don't think he should declare, but if his brother does, he probably will too.

#30: CJ Wilcox | SG | 6'5" 190 | Washington | 22 | [+9]
- An absolute sniper who'd help out a team at the end of the 1st.

 

He's been killing it, and he should at least be on my "to watch" list, I agree. Right now, I'd like to see if he can keep it up into conference play.

He's not a PG from what I've seen (NBADraft.net seems to see PG potential in everybody, for whatever reason), and a 6'4" 190 PG is a lot more enticing on the surface than an SG of the same size.

The age old upside/readiness dilemma doesn't apply to Wiggins much, in my opinion, because he's not built to dominate the college game, and the growing he has yet to do seems far more likely to come to fruition than for other "raw" prospects of the past. Maybe his hype plays a role in that expectation, but the flashes are definitely there.

Parker and Randle look incredibly NBA ready, but have questions about their defensive transition. Embiid is a load of potential that needs to be groomed properly (and Wiggins is not that different, but he's not a big, and he's slightly less of a risk). Smart has the mentality and tools, but you wonder what position he's going to end up at. Exum is also an unknown for his competition level/international status.