My thoughts on trading up to near the top of the draft

There are two many young know-it-alls on this board for you to try to fight them all. They have no concept of what you are saying because they were raised in this era of run down and chunk it up mentality. Most teams spend years looking for a catch and shoot person who will move without the ball to a spot and make an 18 to 20 foot jumper. The Rockets have been looking for one since I was still in grade school. Gus Bailey, Brent Barry, Derrick Chievous, Bryce Drew, Calvin Garrett, Steve Harris, Luther Head, Jim Jackson, Dave Jamerson, Tracy Murray, Bocki, Novak, Erik Piatkowski, Terry Teagle, . All of these guys have hoisted shots toward the rim since I have been a ROX fan. The few of them that were any good at it like Eddie Johnson, Rick Barry, Glen Rice, Purvis Short, we got at the end of their careers. The ones we drafted were mostly busts of which really only CBud and Michael Dickerson (from Arizona) showed any promise. Vancouver was glad to take Dickerson off our hands in the deal to get Stevie Franchise. There is nothing more frustrating in basketball than chasing a catch and shoot guard. While he may never become a Ray Allen or a Reggie Miller, If he only becomes a Jeff Hornacek type, I would be beside myself. Man did I hate that guy, mostly because when he came off the screen, he was nails. I agree with you on the fact that if you have a player who can potentially develop into that type of player, you hang on to him and develop him yourself. That is why you hear his name in rumors. What is the kid going to do next year when we have a post presence? I only hope we get a chance to see what he can do before he ends up on another team and I have to hate him too!!

 

DD, I love you, but CBud is not a potential all-star and he's not nearly in the same category as a true Go-To guy (I would love to eat crow when it comes to CBud). Turner, Cousins, Favors and Johnson are all exceptional talents. This years draft is insanely more talented than last years weak draft.

 

You have to quantify Chase's current value and potential value, and make decisions accordingly.

Morey has number crunchers to do that. Trying to debate it here is fun, but ultimately pointless.

If anything, the debate would be about the process used to determine Chase's value, and none of us are capable of doing that, unless we are math/stat geeks. Throwing out box score stats from other rookies for comparison is amateur hour in this regard.

Of course, the basic eyeball test might be a better predictor than some algorithm. As Morey says, the ultimate test of your process is whether it translates to wins, specifically playoff wins (see Cleveland).

We are almost to the point where all of the fat Morey wasn't responsible for has been trimmed from our roster. Yao is the only player who wasn't Morey's decision. It's time for his methods to start showing results (and I think they have/will).

Spike TV has this show Deadliest Warrior, where they try and determine who would win between a Viking and a Zulu or some such. Some stats nerd plugs stuff into a computer and it spits out an answer. I find it hard to believe that has any accuracy.

Thankfully, Morey doesn't rely solely on a computer algorithm to make predictions/decisions. And the stat analysis he does do is far more sophisticated, and proven with real world results.

 

As I do agree there are some young people on the board that think they know it all, I think not everyone agrees with DD on how great Bud can be. Of course Houston has been looking for a guy like Chase but if he can net you a great player in return, you roll the dice which DD has already stated.

On a side note, I hated that ******* Jeff Hornacek. Did he ever miss when he played against the Rockets??????

 

The difference is that I have not said CBud will be anything...only that he will be better, and rolling the dice on someone that fits perfectly is the right way to go.....

You don't trade talented rookies for another rookie that is stepping backwards.

MAV HATER...you sir nailed it....maybe it is because we are old timers it changes our perspective.

DD

 

To possibly get Cousins at #5? I would.

 

Oliver Miller says hello.

DD

 

You compare CBud to Kobe and Cousins to Miller.

Nah, you're not biased.

 

We've had so many busts over the years that the idea of parting with a known like Budinger for an unknown risk, is understandably unappealing.

But we are now in the Age of Morey, where what was once unknown is now known, what was once an uncertain risk is now less so.

 

I don't think he did. Hated hearing "Horny" being screamed by the Utah announcer.

I didn't mean to imply I would not trade Cbud. If he is a piece to getting us a major piece, than I am all for it. Throwing him with a draft pick to move up in the draft is Stupid IMHO. At that point, we lose an asset with a rare skill set that we know what he can do for an asset that we don't know what he can do or when he will be able to do it. Then we need to turn around and go get someone else with Chase's skill set to spread the floor for our bigs. I would rather trade down and collect assets for July 1st or sit on the 14th pick if it requires us giving up Chase or Jordan.

 

He's a little overweight and currently dominating in workouts. IMO, once he sees all the hype, he will continue to work hard. I mean, he can't be that bad, right?

 

Well said sir.

 

DD... Come on homie... You've pretty much made it clear for the past few months that Bud could be Ray Allen Lite which is fine. I don't have a problem with that because Chase is someone we need if we plan on making that next step... Lord knows we've been waiting on a SG/SF that can hit 3's and drive to the basket. The problem is not many agree Chase's ceiling is as high as you think it could be. You could be right and they could be right. We'll know more about this sooner rather than later.

I think we all can agree is that we shouldn't trade Chase unless we're getting an elite player. It hurt to see Morey trade Landry but he was able to get Martin who could be a 10 ten SG if healthy. That was the right move to make since Landry is probably due for a big raise which Houston wasn't going to pay.

Houston needs a big in a very big way. We all know that. Morey isn't trading Chase for a player he doesn't believe in. Although Cousins has done great in his recent workouts for SAC, his weight is a big big concern that I don't think Morey should risk. Turner or Evans is a different story but Evans is going to Washington and Turner might be had but Morey isn't going to blow this team up for Turner.

 

You are right. Cousins will probably be the next Melvin Turpin instead of Pig Miller!!!

 

No I knew what you meant and I agree with you about using chase and our draft picks to move up just to get a unproven player unless it's for Turner or Wall. Outside of those two guys, there's no one else that you can honestly say will be someone for sure. Cousins has question marks written all over himself with his weight.

If anything, I rather see Morey trade down and get multiple draft picks since this is suppose to be deep draft. He's done great with picking players in the latter part of the draft.

The Rockets are in no position to be risky IMO. It's time for us to make that step forward rather than be the team that's labeled as "If we were only healthy...".

 

I compared CBud's rookie stats to Kobe's because they are similar, and as an example of how not to leap to innane conclusions about how good a player will be after his rookie year.

Cousins and Miller both have weight issues, and it ultimatly killed Millers career.....

To be fair Boozer had one too, but he turned out ok.....(Yuck, hated saying that).

DD

 

I think all the alpha dogs were known to be alpha dogs soon after the draft. I agree that you are much more inclined to get an alpha dog with the 1st or 2nd pick but there are some alpha dogs a little later - just a few picks later. I can't think of any alpha dogs that were ever picked late in the 1st round or mid-second round. They just don't slip that far - ever. Yes you can get some really good players like Rondo but Rondo without the other 3 will be out in the 1st round - every year - I don't care how many good role players you put around him.

Yao was our alpha dog. I really don't expect that from him anymore. I'd love to be wrong and I like our other players but I don't see alpha dog in any of them. I see us as alpha dogless and I don't think you can get one at 14 either. And no GM - not even a rehired Isiah - would trade a known alpha dog for role players and picks. Those players are picked and held on to or traded before they step foot on the floor. Lebron may be an exception but he can go whereever he wants and you can bet Cleveland is doing everything in their power to try and hold on to him because if they lose him it is back to the drawing board.

 

ArtV, check out these Alpha Dogs.

 

Man you had to go there didn't you...

 

It really sucks that we can't count on Yao. His work ethics? Yes but his health has robbed him.