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My Rockets FA Breakdown Spreadsheet

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by tc0330, Jun 8, 2016.

  1. tc0330

    tc0330 Member

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    So I decided to build a spreadsheet of a combined breakdown (by position) of our current roster and potential FA targets in order to identify the FA's with the most value. Since each player played their own amount of time per game, I added projection columns next to each "actual" stat column labeled with a "*". These projection columns are to show the stat as if the player played 36 minutes/game at 82 games for the recent season. This helped give a more accurate comparison. Also, I added a score column to identify the top players for their position. Anyways, the download like is below if you wanna check it out. Let me know what you think.

    **my data is from www.basketball-reference.com
    **scores based on colors - "green" = 0.5 points, "purple" = 1.0 points, "blue" = 2.0 points.
    **Feel free to edit the scoring system or my highlighted stats however you want or whatever you want.
    **If the link doesn't work, let me know.

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/88962163/Rockets FA Breakdown.xlsx
     
    7 people like this.
  2. zigzag

    zigzag Member

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    Great work op

    however Sessions has a better score than Bradley and Conley really bugged me
     
  3. tc0330

    tc0330 Member

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    Thanks, and yea it surprised me too lol.
     
  4. rullrich

    rullrich Member

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    Wow - pretty interesting! Beasley has a higher score than soon to be max/near-max'd Fourier, Batum, Bazemore and Barnes.

    Thanks for sharing - idk if it means anything to the Rox but it's interesting to say the least.
     
  5. JoeBarelyCares

    JoeBarelyCares Contributing Member

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    Avery Bradley is not a free agent, correct? Otherwise I would argue he should be Rockets' #1 target.
     
  6. tc0330

    tc0330 Member

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    No problem - Since we basically got screwed in draft picks and don't have a ton of trade bait, I was curious to see what sort of "value" all these FA's had compared to our current roster and their potential upcoming contracts. I was hoping it could give a better idea on how to spend the Rox money on quality players.
     
  7. tc0330

    tc0330 Member

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    No, Avery isn't a FA but I threw him in their as a trade target and also wanted to see how his stats compared.
     
  8. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    nice work, op!
    I'm all in on Conley....
     
  9. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet
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    Something tells me your scenarios are unlikely. Signing Conley, Horford and Durant is not going to happen, let alone adding Whiteside too.
     
  10. ln3012

    ln3012 Member

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    thank you captain obvious. i don't think the point of his spreadsheet was to show a likely scenario of signing conley, horford, and durant
     
  11. tc0330

    tc0330 Member

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    I wasn't saying to sign all those big name players at all - sorry for the confusion. This spreadsheet is merely an analysis to see what players could potentially give the most bang for the Rox buck when trying to improve the starting lineup and reserves. I included the Rox current roster as well to see how they compare to the FA's.
     
  12. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Appreciate the thought and work put into this
     
  13. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member
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    Apologies for being a little slow, but how do you determine what color each stat gets?
     
  14. tc0330

    tc0330 Member

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    Lol no worries, the color scoring was a little tricky for some as I had to use my own judgement in some occasions. So to start, "blue" was used for the #1 rank in a column, unless 2 players had the same top stat or were different by a decimal point then I colored both blue. "Purple" was used to indicate 'great' stats. "Green" was used for 'good' stats.

    For example....let's use the PG's FT% column. The players I have listed have a FT% ranging from 58.0% to 90.5%. Only two players were in the 90% area (separated by only a decimal point), so I made those 2 stats blue. Eight players fell in the 80% quartile, three players are in the 70% quartile, two players in the 60% quartile and 1 player in the 50% quartile. In this case, I considered anyone's stat in the 80's to be "great". The players in the 70's I considered to be "good". And anything below 70% I wouldn't bother giving a color. My goal was to try to give each player an advantage for having a better stat than the average to further narrow down the best of the best.

    An example of a trickier instance I ran into was the personal fouls (PF) column under power fowards (PF). For instance, Marvin Williams and Ryan Anderson both had a top projected stat of 164, while the next projected stat was Terrence Jones' 246. I didn't see 246 as being "great", so I gave him a "good" color just because he was ranked 3rd out of the bunch.

    Keep in mind, all my projected stats are merely forecasts to see what the player could do if given the max playing time (36 min) for 82 games. For players you don't see as a starter, you can still use those projected stats to determine the players with the best momentum to perform well during games. If you wanna get a little more detailed and want to see what a player could produce as a reserve then do this....let's say you wanna see what Ramon Sessions TRB's are like at 20 minutes instead of 36 minutes. Take his projected TRB stat - currently 361, divide this by 82 games, divide the result by 36 minutes, then multiply by 20 minutes....formula: = 361 TRB's / 82 games = 4.4 TRB's/game / 36 minutes = 0.12 TRB's/minute X 20 minutes = 2.4 TRBs @ 20 minutes/game.

    Sorry for the lengthy explanation lol. Hope this helps
     
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  15. basketballholic

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    Add Rubio since he's a trade target. ;)
     
  16. tc0330

    tc0330 Member

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    Good call, that's my next objective to add trade targets.
     
  17. chievous minniefield

    chievous minniefield Contributing Member

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    Don't know how hard it would be, but if you want to improve it, add player ages.

    And sortability would, of course, be great.

    Excellent work.
     
  18. hakeemthagreat

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    I'd like to see us take a chance on Rondo. He's not the best shooter but he improved last year and still is a great assist man
     
  19. tc0330

    tc0330 Member

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    Thanks! I'll add those 2 for sure
     
  20. tc0330

    tc0330 Member

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    If any of you like my spreadsheet and wanna help, I could really use some assistance in adding realistic salary values (per year) for these FA's potential contracts. I haven't been able to grasp player worth in terms contract values yet. So if you could list any of the players I have on my sheet with their projected salaries, that'd be bada$$.

    Also, feel free to throw me any additional ideas/features and/or players you want me to add for my next updated version. So far I'm adding:

    - Sorting/Filters to each column
    - Age
    - Draft pick (regardless of age, thought this could give another idea on their potential and just an interesting fact to know)
    - Trade targets (feel free to shoot me ANY player(s) you want me to add)
    - Separate starters and reserve lineups (this part is still in major works/planning as I'd like to give more customization for you to set up a legitimate depth chart for the 1st unit, 2nd unit, and 3rd unit (if needed) to really try to maximize production/performance in all areas of the roster)
     

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