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My Rocket Analysis – Our future- high hopes or pipe dreams?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by rhester, Jun 25, 2010.

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  1. rhester

    rhester Contributing Member

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    Rocket Analysis – Our future- high hopes or pipe dreams?

    It is increasingly difficult to build a championship NBA team through the NBA draft- The only recent team to do this is San Antonio- They drafted Duncan, Parker and Ginobili- they were very lucky to draft 2 very good foreign players.
    Most teams build around a superstar player(s) through trades and free agency-

    Bulls- superstar Jordan – traded for Pippen and Rodman
    LA- traded for Kobe and Shaq
    Recently LA- acquired Odom and Gasol
    Detroit- acquired Billups, B. Wallace, R. Wallace
    Miami- surrounded Wade with Shaq, Payton and Mourning
    Boston- added Garnett and Allen

    It also takes the right coach, the right system, low or no injuries, chemistry and peaking at the right time.

    Let me preface this analysis by saying I believe that success is measured by championships. I want the Rockets to win it all again. I can’t wait for another NBA championship trophy.

    Making the playoffs is fan friendly but it should never be our goal, vision or strategy and we fans should not feel satisfied with 'just a good playoff team' unless we are Grizzlies, Wizards or Clipper fans.

    Darryl Morey is trying to rebuild the Rockets to win a championship- here is my take of how big the task really is:

    1. Our one potential superstar is Yao Ming and he is coming off serious surgery. Yao also has suffered several injuries limiting his dominance and do to his size risks further injury issues. While Yao is very effective in the low block and has improved his defense he is not in the same class as Kobe, Lebron, or Wade as far as carrying a team- they are elite and just need the right team around them to seriously contend. The TMac /Yao duo was a very good opportunity for the Rockets but Yao was still developing- injured alot and TMac battled injuries in body and mind. TMac never had a strong enough supporting cast on the offensive end and never liked Adleman’s system thus causing him to regress to his pouting complaining locker room negative. Yao has yet to dominate a playoff series.

    2. If Yao were to return for 1-3 seasons to his best form he would be a key piece, but without another superstar player not enough to put a championship team on his shoulders. A strong return from Yao would give the Rockets a small window of time to try to acquire another superstar scorer which they need to win a championship. It is very unlikely they will get that player this off season in free agency. And if they are able to draft one in the next 2 seasons like a Durant that player would have to develop very quickly to be able to team with Yao in prime form. The problem here is getting into the top 3 of one of the next 2 drafts, and that kind of player being available. Basically at this point the Rockets would need to land a draft pick with Lebron James, Kobe or DwayneWade ability. Very unlikely.

    3. If we rule out Yao making a full recovery to superstar dominance, or he has future injury problems- then we are in the position of needing to add 2 superstars/stars which means we are rebuilding long term post-Yao Ming.
    Whereas Brooks, Budinger, Scola, Martin possibly a big like Patterson the draft pick or Hill might be good supporting cast for 2 superstar players who could carry the team to a championship- these good role players without superstars in front of them unfortunately are just good enough to maybe secure a playoff spot and definately keep us out of a top 3 draft pick position.

    4. One other problem Morey must deal with is that Adleman is a good offensive coach but depends on someone like Coach E. Turner to supply the defensive edge. I think Adleman’s teams historically have lacked the defensive strength in the playoffs to win it all.

    Right now the Rockets are sitting with about 26 other teams trying to acquire the next Kobe, Lebron, or Dwight Howard. Whoever does land Lebron will be a contender for a few years to come. If Dwight Howard improves any more at all he will be a dominant player and Kobe has at least enough left to help the Lakers contend for a couple seasons. I don’t know if the Spurs will rebound and stay healthy.

    The final analysis is that in the short term if the Rockets were to acquire Bosh- and Yao returned to his peak level of play and stayed healthy they could be in the mix for a couple seasons. But I don’t think Bosh alone is enough. We really need more scoring from the 2 guard and our defense is not what is needs to be.

    Morey has to count on Yao staying healthy, returning to dominant play, and securing a superstar to add to the mix. He must achieve this through a trade without damaging the supporting cast too severely. This is a very tall order.

    Chris Paul? What would that cost? Draft the next Kobe? How likely is that?
    The window is probably short on Yao if he comes back as good as new. 3 seasons?

    Right now Morey must pull off another TMac caliber trade or free agent signing soon- and Yao must return to top form or else we soon go post-Yao rebuilding mode.

    I am pulling hard for Yao. Right now to me it seems very unlikely we win our next NBA championship under his watch. That is sad... I love Yao.

    Rebuilding is the hardest thing to do in the NBA. The Lakers won the championship, but take Gasol away and things become much different. Getting Kobe was a miracle to start with and adding a player like Gasol doesn't happen that often for a team.

    Morey has a tough job ahead.
     
    #1 rhester, Jun 25, 2010
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  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Good analysis, and only one team wins it every year. I think the best you can hope for is to be a contender year in and year out and hope it works out.

    I do think some of the players on the team might develop into that star player, notably, Aaron Brooks, Chase Budinger or Jordan Hill.

    Acquiring a superstar player is very difficult, Kobe was acquired in the draft so he hardly counts as a player traded or acquired after he was established.

    There are only 2 superstar players that I can recall that changed teams...Steve Nash and Shaq when he left Orlando.

    The rest usually stay with their teams and the organization tries to build around them.

    I think sometimes you have to get lucky, as well as good, when dealing with human beings there is just no "Sure thing" especially when you are drafting at 14.

    One thing I have mentioned before is that I believe Yao's situation hinders them for one more year, because they are tied to him, no matter what.

    And I don't think any superstar player - including Bosh (whom I do not think is a superstar) will want to come to Houston as long as Yao's situation is up in the air.

    I think Morey is doing an excellent job, and honestly, it may not be popular, but if Yao is healthy, the best way to get that star player may be to trade the big fella.

    Either way, great read Rhester, nice to see you around.

    DD
     
    #2 DaDakota, Jun 25, 2010
  3. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Well I guess you're kind of forgetting that one guy we got from Orlando that one time.

    What was his name? Reece Gaines?
     
    #3 moestavern19, Jun 25, 2010
  4. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Dang, I was hoping for JJ Redick, I think you are slipping in your old age.

    ;)

    DD
     
    #4 DaDakota, Jun 25, 2010
  5. rhester

    rhester Contributing Member

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    Good to talk again DD, been very busy and took this season off a little, first time in my Rocket fan history I did not try to watch all the games and sad to say did not watch many at all...

    Aaron Brooks, Chase Budinger or Jordan Hill- nice parts, but I venture to say it is unlikely any of those three even go to one all star game.

    "Kobe was acquired in the draft so he hardly counts as a player traded or acquired after he was established"- Kobe was acquired via trade that never should have happened. Lakers really lucked out. (was a draft day trade)
     
    #5 rhester, Jun 25, 2010
  6. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    I agree that none of them will probably become stars, but they have as much of a chance of becomming a star as most of the picks in this draft.

    AB especially, has he reached his ceiling? I don't know...but what if he gets a lot better at managing a game? That would be pretty special.....

    Anyway, welcome back !

    DD
     
    #6 DaDakota, Jun 25, 2010
  7. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    I think there is a lot of impatience with what Morey is doing.

    Sure he's adding solid basketball players and creating good team chemistry, but the lack of a dominant player will end up hurting the team in the long run if they have no go-to guy.

    However, we have assets and every time Morey picks somebody up he is viewed as a possible trade piece no matter how valued he is within the organization, I agree that this team needs to add a big piece, the collective is nice but that is a formula that rarely ends up tasting champagne in Mid-June.
     
    #7 moestavern19, Jun 25, 2010
  8. Canadiandude

    Canadiandude Member

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    You know what the common variable is on all those trades? A team was the beneficiary of a GM/Owner making a dumbass move.
     
    #8 Canadiandude, Jun 25, 2010
  9. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Agreed, but you have to be in a position to take advantage when other teams are willing to give up a superstar.

    So, you draft well and HOPE someone develops into a superstar, and put yourself in position to nab one when things go sour somewhere else.

    We are in position and in hope mode.......what more can you do?

    I think Morey has done his job incredibly well, now we need to take advantage when the opportunity arrives.

    DD
     
    #9 DaDakota, Jun 25, 2010
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  10. tdogg310

    tdogg310 Member

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    #10 tdogg310, Jun 25, 2010
  11. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Sure.

    He's done an excellent job, if not masterful - of finding talent in the latter rounds of the draft and most of the talent Morey has acquired have or will end up being solid rotational players or even borderline stars.

    He's got the pieces, now its time to use them.
     
    #11 moestavern19, Jun 25, 2010
  12. rhester

    rhester Contributing Member

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    Couldn't agree more. He has done more with less than any other GM I can think of.
     
    #12 rhester, Jun 25, 2010
  13. krocket

    krocket Contributing Member

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    Sorry, but I really can't agree with your basic premise. Yes, that is certainly one method of building a championship team. If you are an L.A. or N.Y. it is a relatively reliable method. But, IMO having a good TEAM is also a way of winning a championship. The last one can remember is Detroit. Not a superstar (maybe Reggie) that I can recall, but nearly every starter was an all-star those years. I am sure there are others. The Rocket's main problem last year was when it came to crunch time at the end of the season they couldn't stop the other guys from scoring and didn't have a Center to defend the basket. In fact, they were not a half court team and that seems to be the magic solution. Yao's non-guarateed return is the biggest impediment to making a half court team. However, on the bright side, our second team is a very good change-of-pace replacement team and can switch it on with the running game. I am not exactly sure why we would draft a PF, that does make about 8 forwards on the roster unless he was a true BPA because we haven't found our center to play behind Yao.
     
    #13 krocket, Jun 25, 2010
  14. rhester

    rhester Contributing Member

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    #14 rhester, Jun 25, 2010
  15. rhester

    rhester Contributing Member

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    I can't remember how to post :grin:
     
    #15 rhester, Jun 25, 2010
  16. anon3803

    anon3803 Member

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    I agree. It seems like many people are down playing our team's capability. Yes, we missed the playoffs last year, but with the new additions of Hill and Martin we're fairly competitive. Add Yao back into the mix and we should be going through 1-2 series in the playoffs and getting close to the conference championships.

    While I agree with the OP that on paper, we don't look like a major championship contender, I think the next season will prove that we have almost all the pieces we need, and if one of our young, high-potential players blossoms into a superstar, we're golden. I'm not saying Morey shouldn't be trying to upgrade to a superstar/perennial all-star like Stoudemire, Bosh, or CP3, but I don't think it would be a disaster if he isn't able to land one of those players.
     
    #16 anon3803, Jun 25, 2010
  17. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    I think people understimate Adelman's Defenses

    Rocket River
     
    #17 Rocket River, Jun 25, 2010
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