people should probably stop referencing how close the lakers series was last year. they were sleep-walking in that series. shaq didn't even bother to stir himself from his slumber most of the time. i realize yao has been pretty good at limiting him, but shaq scored 7 one game and would go 12 to 15 minute stretches without even bothering to call for the ball. if we had accidentally won a second game, they would've woken up. they had their foot on our throats the whole time and could've finished us at any time if we had posed a serious threat. they tried to sleepwalk against the spurs and got obliterated for two games, at which point they flipped the switch and won 4 straight and got to the finals. there's no reason we shouldn't be competitive against the mavs (since our 6-11 start we've played at about a 57 win pace) and there's no reason we can't come away with a win, but for now they are the better team and it will be an uspet if we win. and the lakers series has no bearing on this one b/c the mavs won't be sleepwalking. one good thing is yao won't have to devote everything to guarding the other team's center this time so he should bring some offense to the party. nowitzki will slaughter our pf combo. tmac should put up very nice numbers. they wll hit 3's, presumably we will as well. we will play better D but they will play it, too. they will win in 6.
The question isnt if the rockets will win the series or not. The real question is how many games will it take for the Rockets to dispatch off the Mavs. Rockets are mentally strong. Rockets vets are a proud bunch and will come to play hard along with Yao and Tmac, who both have a lot to prove in the playoffs. Biggest mismatch of the series - Jeff Van gundy vs. Avery Johnson.
Their bench is much deeper. That is determined by payroll -- Rockets $58mil vs Mavs $91mil. They have three max players, including one (Horn) on the bench. We've only got Tmac.
I think the Mavs will win. If they play their best, it's better than our best. Possibilities in the Rox favor: Van Horne pulls his normal clutch time disappearing act. If he lights it up I definitely don't see us winning. Finley goes cold. Quite likely at some point in the series. Problem is they have Stack on the bench. Bradley commits one foul per minute (without hurting anybody). He can't guard Yao. Dampier is their only hope to stop Yao besides Yao himself. Avery Johnson's Napoleon complex. The guy's demeanor and attitude have changed so much it's scary. He's very harsh now. If they lose one of the first two games, how will Avery react and how will the players react to him? Key question: How will Avery react to JVG's game to game adjustments? This is why coaching is much more important in the real season than the regular season. I think Dirk is a gonna be on fire. This has been his year to show he is his own man without Nash, and he is the undisputed leader of that team. BTW, Dallas has blown the big lead to the Sonics tonight. The Sonics announcer is great. He's one of the best NBA play-by-play guys I've ever heard.
On paper, we have a big edge in coaching and in Yao Ming. TMac and Dirk will cancel each other out, and while the Rockets have fewer high dollar players, I think we have better chemistry. Chemistry is better to have than tons of individual talent, because there is only one ball. I truly believe that our players, much like Detroit last year, are greater than the sum of their parts. What I think has a good possibility to happen is Dallas losing it's new identity. JVG is a strong believer in good teams continuing to do what they do, despite what adversity comes their way. Some of you will remember JVG talking about it after one of the Spurs games. I do not think that Dallas has the character to keep it together, especially because of the short time that they have had under Avery Johnson. Yao is the X-factor in this series. If Avery doesn't double-team him, we have to make good passes into Yao and Yao must pick his spots to dominate. That will open up everything else.
I expect us to take the first game by 12. Mavs will take the second by 8 ... maybe more.... if they get lucky.
And? [jeff_spicoli] Those guys are fags! [/jeff_spicoli] Seriously, the Mavs are a much harder out than either of those teams. Those guys we know we can dominate. We have to put everything physically and mentally into beating Dallas. Everything else will fall into its proper place -- there's nothing to do about it. In this situation, the future is unknowable; plan for the challenges directly ahead. Right now, JVG and the boys need to be seriously gameplanning for that 'other' town up I-45. Offering Deke a $50,000 bounty for every time he "LeBrons" Dirk is a good start (j/k).
Dude, CD rebuilt this team in mid-season and it blossomed on the run. We started 6-11, yet here we are, on the verge of winning 51 games. Our superstar has been NBA Player of the Week for like 17% of the season (4 of 24 weeks). We have the 2nd-best "opp. f/t percentage against" in the league. We can run and finish. We can clamp down on D with Yao/Deke there to erase any slip-ups. We can certainly count on at least one of those magical "TMac games" in this series (i.e. Tracy scores 40+, gets 9 rebounds and dishes out 8 assists). We have a very good chance of doing to Dallas what we've done to Seattle (twice), Phoenix (twice), Denver and Miami in recent memory: shut 'em down. Now that's more like it, dammit!
Ming is the wild card. If he comes up big, Rockets in seven; if he disappears, Mavs in 5. Ming cannot come up small if the Rockets have any chance to win. He will get the credit if they win, and he will get the blame if they lose. I am convinced that TMac will "take off" and the role players will be like wild men, I expect Barry to go nuts.
Great analysis Jeff. I think this series comes down to which team's #2 player (Finley and Yao) has the better series. Both are going to face the other team’s best one-on-one defender (Wesley and Dampier) and both should receive a lot of attention. If the rockets can force Finley to take tough shots and then have Yao dominate the paint I can see them winning this series in 6 games. However, if Yao gets in foul trouble or Finley gets hot then the Rockets are going to be in trouble. This is going to be a great series. Two good teams that seem to be playing great basketball and seem evenly matched. I hope our edge in experience (both on and off the court) is the deciding factor that lifts us to round 2.
Coaching is pivotal in this series. Beside T-Mac and Yao, Houston's greatest advantage IMO is the ability to lock down the paint. That gives us the luxury of guarding the perimeter tightly. We should take advantage against a sweet shooting team like Dallas by playing their guards up tight and stick a hand in their faces. If they drive, try funnelling them into either Yao or Deke. Dallas players have speed but it doesn't seem they have players who can consistently drive on us like Nash or Parker. Maybe except Dirk. Don't double Dirk because that'll bring the abundance of their shooters open shots. And frankly, no matter what we do, Dirk will get his. Play one on one defense and let their role players beat us seems better than doubling Dirk. On offense the guards will have to protect the ball and hit their shots. We are tough to beat when the TO's low and our guards are shooting well, because we are mainly a jump shooting perimeter team. With these two things being done I feel confident about our chances. Also, trash talking with their young players, riling them up and getting physical with them to take the ball away from Dirk won't hurt.
i think the key is going to be keeping michael finley from getting hot. dirk is going to get his and really there's no away around that but finley can be contained. too many times in the past i've seen him go off on these 3-point shooting rampages and it's important to check that. yao ming needs to and should have a really nice series. i don't know if he'll get 20 and 10 but as long as he continues being a defensive presence and keeps his intensity high on offense it'll be enough. the real key to our offense will be how well wesley, barry, james, and padgett shoot from the outside, not neccesarily 3's. when you look at our winning streaks their shooting is probably the most consistent reason for the wins. i think mcgrady has stored up something extra for the playoffs. it might sound stupid but after witnessing what he does when he "imposes his will" on a game i think he's going to explode. he's gonna average close to 40 a night. this should be the best series game-to-game in the playoffs. both teams are really too close to call a definite winner but i'm not going to call anything but the rockets. if the rockets can execute what i'm sure is going to be a great jvg gameplan then i think we can pull it out.
I think Dallas will win in 6. i don't agree with Jeff that Houston has the better bench because of chemistry... who is to say that Dallas does not have this good chemistry as well.... they have chemistry and the talent if you ask me... so the bench ADV. goes to DALLAS. Plus i think the whole series lies in Yao Ming...simple as that.... if he gets into foul trouble; with the playoffs being more physical and all.... i think that is what will cause the Rockets to lose.... i don't have think Yao has completely understood when to foul and when to let it go.... houston is lacking an interior presence all season(other than Yao) ...this will be more evident in the playoffs.... so wait till next season.
Here's how I break down the series: Game 1: Dallas will be more comfortable. Years of playoff experience, playing at home, confident and loose, they will handily win. Expect Dallas to click on numerous cylinders. Houston will keep up for the first half, but fade in the 3rd quarter. Game 2: Van Gundy will make the adjustments, and Johnson will not. I think Yao will play with less self-consciousness and more desperation. It will be a close game, but I think Houston gets this one in an ugly physical game. Dirk will get a tech. Game 3: Coming home to a more electrified audience, something t-mac hasn't experienced in a long time, he and the other Rockets will be motivated by the Crowd and roll to a big win. Stackhouse comes up big. Game 4: You won't be able to keep Dirk Down for long, and he'll be due for a big game, plus Houston sometimes plays poorly when comfortable, and up 2-1, they will relax a bit too much and lose a close one. Van Horn will continue to have a big series as Houston has trouble with him and Dirk. Yao will play soft, but expect solid play from the bench. Still won't be enough. Game 5: By this time, these teams will know each other....it's so hard to tell how a game 5 will go, especially in Dallas. I'm leaning toward Dallas, with the momentum and going home, but who knows what these Rockets are made of? Game 6: Down 3-2, Houston responds with another big home win. Yao has his biggest game of the series. Game 7: Maybe not a classic, but T-mac will shine here. He's lived for this, his moment of glory, the knock has been that he hasn't one a playoff series, and the greatest best clutch player in the league will add a notch in his belt toward being one of the greatest clutch players. Houston wins it's first series since the Hakeem era ended, and it's a road win in fitting style. Of course, this is all conjecture, fantasy, and I have no real clue how things will unfold....but hey, why not?
what does that mean? that's a pretty big exception you're making. the mavs have crap at the pf, well other then nowitski.
wow this series alone tells me how weak the east is. Both Dallas and Houston has potential to go to finals and win championship, and on the east, neither chicago nor wizards have a chance. Tough, tough, west.
I'm with tiger and BigM in that I think our perimeter guns will be the x-factors. How Yao performs is and clearly will be very important, but to me it comes down to how well we move the ball around and whether we have enough shooters hitting at the same time. I'm one of those who thinks the defense feeds off the offense. If guys consistently hit open shots, everything will be much easier and we can win.
