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My draft strategy - help

Discussion in 'Fantasy Sports' started by what, Aug 31, 2013.

  1. what

    what Member

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    With everybody seeming going after rbs this year, I've decided that I might take the opposite approach.

    My plan is to take who I believe could be the top wr outside of calvin johnson: demaryus thomas is my target, but dez bryant, julio jones and aj green are all in there.

    Then, I would draft jimmy graham with the 13 overall.

    My thought process here is that graham provides so much more value at the te position than anybody else that I am not wasting the pick in a value based system.

    of course this will mean that with the 24th pick in the draft I've got to find a killer rb (eddie lacy, gio benard or mathews), but I like the idea of the fact that I am able to reach a little on high value running backs in the middles rounds when everybody else is trying to fill out there rosters with other positions.

    is this the right strategy in a ppr league 2rb, 3 wr, 1 te 1 flex?
     
  2. JunkyardDwg

    JunkyardDwg Contributing Member

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    If I had drafted at the tail end of my draft, I would have gone after an elite QB and probably a RB. Unless everyone before had picked a RB there would still be value there in Johnson or MJD or Steven Jackson. If every single quality one had been taken, I would have gone for a QB and WR. I think you're reaching for Jimmy Graham at 13 personally. In my draft, he went at 25.
     
  3. what

    what Member

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    yes, there will be a running available at 12, however if you look at this from a purely statistical slant, last year only 3 running backs scored 300 points or more in my league. 6 wide receivers did it. So, if I am trying to draft a player who could potential be the fantasy overall points leader at my chosen draft position, it's most likely NOT going to be at running back.

    The only exception to that is if possibly Trent Richardson falls to 12, which I doubt he will.

    In the same vain, the only players in the last 3 years to every come close to 300 points as a te are: witten, graham, and gronk. No other te in the league even even comes remotely close to that number, so if Graham does approach 300 points, I've got a HUGE advantage on my league by picking him.

    I think graham's range is probably mid-second round (so while i agree that he is somewhat of a reach), one thing you might consider is that by me choosing to pick last in the first round, I get to pick first in rounds 2 AND 3, so the reach isn't as damning as you might think.
     
  4. TheFreak

    TheFreak Contributing Member

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    I endorse that strategy. I've learned to take sure things with the first 2 picks, since I can usually draft better than most everyone else in my league after that. Why be forced to take whatever RB is available, just because everyone else is doing it? Especially in a ppr. I took Roddy White and Welker with my first 2 picks last year in a 12 team ppr and did very well. I grabbed Spiller, Ridley, and Sproles later on to fill out the RB spots. The key is not to take guys who could bust with the first couple of picks. RBs are more prone to that than any other position. Better to have one of your early picks just do okay and not great, than to draft a guy and have him get hurt or the team go south unexpectedly.
     
  5. what

    what Member

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    I've also thinking of actually taking a bad ass qb with my 25th pick. If Brees or rodgers were somehow there I'd jump all over that, but even if they are not pairing

    demaryus thomas with peyton manning combo would be KILLER!

    Of course with this strategy I'm going to have to sort through the rd carefully at the 49th pick: gio bernard, lacy, lamar miller, ryan mathews or frank gore(?) even.

    I'm going to have to find the RIGHT guys to roll with here.
     
  6. Pete the Cheat

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    Graham is money when active...but was dinged what felt like all of last year.
    If thats going to be your strategy I would have a sleeper TE you are confident in that can get snagged at good value in later rounds...Dwayne Allen has been that guy for me in mocks where I move on Graham early.

    I agree with your strategy though, RBs are boom or bust due to injury concerns and are alot easier to handcuff.
     
  7. ILoveTheRockets

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    if you are drafting graham 13 overall, you are losing major value at wr, and rb(like 170 points)

    Graham is great, but with losing out on so much value, you are just going to doom yourself
     
  8. what

    what Member

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    my draft picks would be:

    demaryus thomas (12)
    jimmy graham (13)

    and then with the 25th pick (our draft repeats round 2's order so I'd get the 25th pick here) peyton manning.

    the other thing is that in terms of value at the position there are only 3 players in the last 3 years that have come close to 300 points at the te spot: jimmy graham, gronk and witten.

    if graham gets 300 points this year, he will dominate the te position like no other. I'm basically drafting 3 guys that I think can get 300 points, 300 points and 500 points.

    Also, in the last 3 years, in my league, only 4 rbs have ever approached 300 points and ap is about the only surefire player to do that.
     
  9. ILoveTheRockets

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    I understand the logic but I personally don't see the point of it, especially with injury risk factored in.

    With Colston hobbled, and losing Devery Henderson, the Saints have Nick Toon and Kenny Stills at WR, not exactly the most proven players for every down situations. That leaves Lance Moore, Graham, and Sproles as the main targets until Colston gets fully healthy again. Which the injury could linger for some time.

    With the rejuvenated Ingram emerging, Sproles, and Pierre Thomas still in the mix, I can see the Saints turning into redzone running instead of passing more often than not this year.

    With Kenny Stills, Andy Tanner, and Nick Toon as a 3 headed deep threat trio, I don't see Graham finding himself in the same situations as he did before. The offense will still be high tempo, but just in different ways with most of the scoring opportunities coming from outside the redzone this season.

    Graham will still be the best TE in the NFL this year, but I just don't see him having a big big year this year.
     
  10. ILoveTheRockets

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    What i mean by that, is that Graham will become more of short yardage receiver and not getting those open opportunities as before
     
  11. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Contributing Member

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    Graham at 13 is a waste. If anything take dez and Thomas. And than hope for Manning or Brees even Graham is likely tofall intothat slot.

    So let's say you take dez/thomas at 12/13... if Graham drops and Manning is available you have a killer squad. If you take two to wrs at that stage it will force other players to switching plans and taking a sure fire#1 receiver. Increasing theodds of Grahamfalling.

    Even if Graham doesn't drop you take a top qb, and than you have options, leftover rb? Another wr? Take a risk on gronk?
     
  12. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Dez Bryant will be the best fantasy wr this year. His stretch run last year won me my money league.
     
  13. what

    what Member

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    I like dez bryant a lot and if he is there at 12 I need to consider taking him. I'm still slightly worried that he could fall back into bad habits though, and this is dallas we are talking about, not the pilar of discipline but I am with you on dez bryant.

    one question moe, who do you think has a top 10 season in him in the 4th round range (48) pick?

    Josh Gordon?
    Gio Bernard?
    Lamar Miller?

    basically, what I am asking is which player is the most high value sleeper pick (regardless of position but excluding qb) this year.

    What guy is poised for a breakout season?
     
  14. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    I love Bernard. Kid is going to shine.

    buy low on Antonio Brown too, I see Pittsburgh throwing a lot as usual. Heath Miller helps open up the deep ball. In my deeper league he was available in the 70 range.

    Kenny Stills may become the new Lance Moore. Brees is already starting to trust him and Colston or Moore are bound to miss some games.
     
    #14 moestavern19, Sep 1, 2013
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2013
  15. what

    what Member

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    do you think tom brady's new target could have a monster year: thompkins I think his name is?
     
  16. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Brady can make him a 1000 yard guy. I like Amendola and I think Vareen gets heavy catches as long as Gronk is out.
     
  17. what

    what Member

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    I've almost decided that I want to make a radical move. Tell me what you think:

    My plan is that, in round 3 (24), 4 (48), AND 6 (72) in I am going to pull a top quarterback off the board.
    There are 20 rounds in my draft. Most of the people in these drafts have been waiting for Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Romo, Russell Wilson Luck till rounds 5, 6 and 7.

    I figure that if I pull say, Peyton, Matt Ryan and Luck or Wilson in 3 successive rounds, what it will do for me is: a) weaken 3 teams starting qbs significantly. It will also provide me with a decided advantage against teams with only 1 elite qb when the bye weeks begin, and finally I will actually have options at QB to play matchups when one of my qbs have a juicy weak d to go up against.

    Doing this, I would probably also need to decide upon either Brees or Peyton or Rodgers, on which player I think will be the most points scorer in the league and try to pair him with his favorite target. That would be why I am leaning toward

    Peyton Manning or Brees, because Rodgers seems to spread the ball around too much.

    Do you think Peyton Manning can be the top scorer in fantasy?
     

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