MSNBC: Kerry/Edwards Already Takes 8-pt Lead

“First Read” is a daily memo prepared by NBC News’ political unit, for NBC News, analyzing the morning’s political news. Please let us know what you think. Drop us a note at FirstRead@MSNBC.com.

advertisement

• Wednesday, July 7, 2004 | 9:30 ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi and Jesse Levine

First Glance - The NBC poll
Following wall-to-wall veepstakes coverage for Kerry-Edwards coming out of a long holiday weekend, a poll taken last night for NBC News by Princeton Survey Research and aired this morning on TODAY shows Kerry-Edwards beating Bush-Cheney 49% to 41%, with Nader-Camejo at 4%. President Bush's job approval rating is 45%, with 48% disapproving. Vice President Cheney's rating is 44% approve, 43% disapprove. Sample size is 504 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5 points.

Sixty-three percent of those polled say Kerry's choice of Edwards as his running mate makes no difference in their decision for whom to vote; 24% say it makes them more likely to vote for Kerry, and 7% say it makes them less likely to vote for him.

As pollster Evans Witt says, "Subject to confirmation in surveys with longer field periods, the numbers suggest at least a short-term bounce for the Democratic ticket."

Look for more results from the poll tonight on NBC Nightly News.

The newly minted Democratic ticket kicked off a “Journey across America” tour today with an 8:30 am photo op in Fox Chapel, PA, and are off to rallies in Cleveland, OH at 11:15 am, Dayton at 4:15 pm, and Clearwater, FL at 9:40 pm. MSNBC's Felix Schein reports that when asked whether Edwards will speak at the rallies, a campaign press aide said yes, but that the details of what will be said were still being worked out. That said, Edwards will not give his old stump speech and will not freelance. Instead, Schein advises to expect some kind of prepared text that highlights the central theme of the campaign -- the struggles of average, middle-class Americans.

The Kerry-Edwards tour hits six states between now and Sunday, including assumed battlegrounds Ohio, Florida, West Virginia and New Mexico. Oh, and North Carolina.

The Democratic presidential ticket is not quite "Boston-Austin," but it's close. Despite the speculation about Gephardt helping Kerry carry Missouri, or Graham helping him carry Florida, the initial buzz was never as loud (beyond those who pay attention to DSCC polls) about Edwards maybe helping Kerry win North Carolina, a state no Democratic presidential candidate has won since 1976. Excited Democratic talk about Edwards's ability to "help Kerry win Southern states" has always been punctuated by Republicans -- and even Kerry himself -- pointing to polls showing that Edwards "can't win his own state."

Well. Bush-Cheney might still win North Carolina, but will have to spend some time and money there. The Kerry campaign has a lot to spend by the Democratic convention, and they now say they're putting about $18 million on the air with a flight of new and refurbished TV ads, including in North Carolina. A Kerry campaign memo overnight calls North Carolina "the country’s newest battleground state. Once considered safe for the Bush Campaign, textile jobs losses and the Bush Administration’s anemic response, among other issues, have placed North Carolina in the swing state column..." The memo calls textile job losses "Bush's Achilles heel." The tour Kerry-Edwards embark upon today winds up with an overnight stay in Raleigh, including a Saturday afternoon rally and church on Sunday.

President Bush is in Raleigh today, as it happens, meeting with thwarted judicial nominees at 11:00 am, with remarks at the tail end. He then headlines fundraisers at 12:35 pm and 1:35 pm before heading to Michigan to meet with yet another group of judicial nominees in Pontiac at 4:15 pm and do a fundraiser in Bloomfield Hills at 5:55 pm. His re-election campaign goes up today with that touted McCain TV ad; the campaign had been largely dark on advertising since June 24.

We'd note that even though the Kerry camp calls North Carolina a battleground state, we never received any kind of response to the Edwards pick from Democratic Senate candidate Erskine Bowles yesterday (or even from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee when we asked about a Bowles response). Edwards's colleague Elizabeth Dole on TODAY said she has not had much chance to get to know Edwards because he hasn't been in the Senate much -- he's been on the campaign trail. She also charged Kerry-Edwards with being "maybe the wealthiest ticket in history."

Kerry-Edwards
In a country-squire twist on White House detailing of the menus at state dinners, MSNBC's Schein passes along that the Kerrys and the Edwardses dined last night on farm salad, veal tenderloin, and corn pudding at Teresa Heinz Kerry's Fox Chapel Farm. No sweets, Schein notes, which sucks if you're one of the littlest Edwardses.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer previews Kerry and Edwards’ stops in Ohio today, and adds that Edwards' "compelling life story… could boost the ticket's standing with working-class voters, particularly in the Midwest."

The Dayton Daily News also previews today's rally in Dayton.

The St. Petersburg Times, meanwhile, anticipates the Kerry-Edwards stop in Florida. Even in Bob Graham's home state, the paper says, "Democrat after Democrat cheered the choice of 51-year-old Edwards. Many suggested he can be as helpful to Kerry in Florida - which boasts 27 electoral votes - as Graham would have been.”

USA Today/Gallup has an overnight poll out, too. Democrats are very excited.

The challenge for all journalists this morning: write it differently from the rest. We'll start with the AP and go from there: "Republicans pounced on Edwards' successful career as a trial lawyer, which turned the son of a mill worker into a millionaire with a string of big-money jury verdicts... But some Republican operatives viewed the selection with alarm, noting Edwards' courtroom successes."

"In the Senate, Edwards made a mark as a leading advocate of the so-called Patients' Bill of Rights, legislation aimed at regulating health maintenance organizations. The bill passed the Senate but has been stalled due to differences with legislation in the House of Representatives. He worked closely with veteran Sens. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., and John McCain, R-Ariz., earning the respect of both for his grasp of legal issues. On major legislation, Edwards and Kerry have nearly identical records, though Edwards has earned ratings as more of a moderate than Kerry from business and environmental groups."

Another AP story notes, "Kerry has picked a running mate who sees the issues of the day more or less his way, despite their once-pitched rivalry... Kathleen Hall Jamieson, who studies a range of campaign issues as director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center..., says Kerry and Edwards have differed more on emphasis than substance, and managed to fight it out for the nomination without much bad blood between them."

Kerry gets props for keeping his choice so quiet for so long from both the Washington Times and Los Angeles Times.

The comprehensive news stories on the secrecy surrounding the decision and what Edwards might bring to the ticket, both good and bad:
Raleigh News and Observer
Washington Post
New York Times
USA Today
LA Times
Boston Globe
Chicago Tribune

MSNBC's Tom Curry on the contrasts between Edwards and Kerry, and between Edwards and Cheney.

The Washington Post's new hire away from the Raleigh News & Observer writes up Kerry and Edwards's similar records, while the Boston Globe looks at their differing backgrounds.

The Washington Times, like others, has heard Edwards's message in Kerry's rhetoric for awhile.

The Washington Post's Style section on former rivals making nice.

Bush-Cheney's welcoming Kerry-Edwards to the race and the Bush campaign/RNC attacks:
New York Times
Washington Post
Washington Times
LA Times
USA Today
Boston Globe

The Wall Street Journal's Harwood says that "weighed against" the GOP criticisms "is a reality privately giving other Bush allies pause: John Edwards has rare gifts that have taken him very far, very fast."

Edwards's psyche and the "man in a hurry:"
Washington Post
LA Times
USA Today

Edwards's experience -- or lack thereof:
Washington Post
Washington Times

The Wall Street Journal editorial page calls Edwards "Mr. Clinton without the experience and depth."

The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein on the gamble Kerry is taking in emphasizing domestic policy right now.

The Wall Street Journal says Kerry "has redoubled a key bet in his bid to win the White House: that middle-class voters are feeling an acute economic squeeze."

The AP checks out Edwards's personal financial disclosure forms. And USA Today notes Edwards's seeming fundraising dependence on trial lawyers.

The New York Times notes the selection of Edwards may make him a rival for Hillary Clinton in 2008, assuming Bush wins re-election. But that didn’t stop Clinton for filling in for Kerry to speak before the National Education Association.

The AP gets reaction from overseas: "In Britain, The Times, The Guardian and The Daily Telegraph all featured 'charisma' in the headlines of their editorials. Edwards 'has the charisma, the fresh face, the self-confident youthfulness that Mr. Kerry, nine years his senior, so clearly lacks,' The Guardian commented."

The Boston Herald says bookstores are reporting a spike in sales for Edwards' memoir, "Four Trials."

The Columbia, SC State considers how Edwards's presence on the ticket could boost the Democratic US Senate nominee in South Carolina. The Washington Times has analysts saying Democrats might be overhyping their chances with Southern Senate seats in a story that doesn't mention Edwards.

Almost everyone but J-Lo e-mailed press releases or statements yesterday weighing in on the Edwards pick -- Democrats rejoicing, Republicans blasting. Among some of the more interesting responses:

Democrat Nancy Farmer, fighting an uphill battle against GOP Sen. Kit Bond in Missouri, went out of her way to liken herself to Edwards: "John Edwards and I both come from working class backgrounds, we were the first in our families to go to college and I'm the first to applaud Senator Kerry on choosing an outstanding running mate who understands the needs of working Americans." (From the email we received from her campaign at 1:18 pm, though, we're pretty sure she wasn't the first...)

Andy Stern, president of the Service Employees International Union, praised Edwards' ability to hang: "Sen. Edwards first captured the hearts of SEIU members last September, during a political action conference in which the North Carolina senator addressed SEIU activists from the podium, but also in a more intimate setting in which a small group of the union's rank and file asked questions to determine if he could 'hang.'"

Among Republicans, South Dakota Senate candidate John Thune, who's running against Tom Daschle, said Kerry picking Edwards is "Daschle's worst nightmare. The Kerry-Edwards-Daschle ticket is far more liberal than South Dakota."

And then there's the press release that came from Republican Richard Burr, who's running for the North Carolina Senate seat that Edwards abandoned. "I congratulate Senator Edwards for bringing our state this unprecedented national attention. It has certainly energized my campaign through the numerous phone calls, e-mails and offers to volunteer I have received... Make no mistake; North Carolina values will play an important role as to who occupies the White House. In 1998, John Edwards said he’d vote frequently with Senator Helms. Rarely did this happen and rarely did he reflect the values of the majority of North Carolinians. In fact, in the past couple of years, rarely has John Edwards voted at all."

Interestingly, Burr's Democratic opponent Erskine Bowles -- who conventional wisdom says will benefit from the selection of Edwards -- didn't issue a press release at all, at least to the best of our knowledge. Hmm.

In all the color reported yesterday, one thing went missing, MSNBC's Schein notes. Late Monday afternoon, reporters were told by Kerry spokesperson Cutter that, counter to reports being aired on TV, Kerry had not yet made up his mind about a running mate. However, when briefing again on Monday, Cutter said Kerry had personally telephoned the company that applied the Edwards decal to the campaign plane around 6:00 pm Monday evening -- four hours after she denied a decision had been reached, and a tick-tock that leads some to think that Kerry may well have made up his mind earlier than the campaign is letting on.

Bush-Cheney v. Kerry-Edwards
The AP covers the ad war sparked by yesterday's announcement. The Kerry campaign "had already bought $14 million worth of airtime for ads in July, but on Tuesday the campaign added another $3 million to its buy, boosting the level of ads in more than a dozen states. The campaign will unveil a new round of previously cut ads on Wednesday that advisers say will continue to be positive, fleshing out Kerry's agenda."

A new Bush "ad seeks to capitalize on reports that McCain had rejected overtures from Kerry to be part of a bipartisan presidential ticket. The two senators and Vietnam War veterans are friends."

"The 60-second commercial shows McCain speaking when he campaigned with Bush in Reno, Nev., last month. The campaign, which bought $160,000 of airtime over three days, will begin running the spot on Wednesday on national cable networks and later in selected local media markets in battleground states."

The AP also zeros in on the new Kerry ads saying the campaign "will spend $17 million to run ads in July that attempt to further flesh out Kerry's domestic and foreign policy agenda. The ads don't mention Bush, but they attempt to subtly contrast his proposals with Kerry's."

The politics of the courts
The AP says of Bush's meetings with judicial nominees today, "Bush will use Wednesday's trip to Edwards' home state of North Carolina to highlight the senator's role in blocking federal court nominees... Planned weeks ago, Bush's trip turned out to be perfectly timed, considering Edwards' selection."

"In a feud with Republicans that dates to the Clinton administration, Senate Democrats are refusing to allow votes on many of Bush's judicial nominees. Conservatives are unhappy with a deal Bush struck with Senate Democrats, in which he agreed to abstain from installing his most contentious federal court nominees while Congress is in recess. The deal guaranteed Bush that 25 of his least controversial nominees would be seated, but does not help get his most conservative nominees through the Senate, which must confirm all appointments to the U.S. courts. Liberals are happy because they don't have to worry about nominees they most dislike getting one- or two-year appointments to federal trial or appeals courts this year."

Leon Holmes was confirmed by the Senate yesterday after a 51-46 vote. The vote came "after an emotional debate over the nominee's positions on abortion, women's rights, race and separation of church and state," says the Los Angeles Times.

The economy
Another cloud in the Bush campaign's optimistic economic outlook: anticipated higher gas prices. USA Today adds, "Retail gasoline prices have eased since hitting record highs, not adjusted for inflation, of more than $2 a gallon for regular in late May. The nationwide average price at the pump for regular fell for the sixth straight week this week to $1.895 a gallon, the Energy Department said Tuesday. That was the lowest price in two months. Prices are still higher than a year ago. In some cities, including Boston, Los Angeles, Miami and New York, gas prices were still above $2 a gallon for regular this week."

• Tuesday, July 6, 2004 | 09:20 ET
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi

First Glance
The name underneath that big tarp covering the decal on Kerry's 757?

The Democrat who'll face off against Cheney in prospective fall debates?

The candidate who puts tort reform and judicial nominees a lot more front and center? Just listen to those trial lawyer and business fundraising machines revving up. Note possible Senate action today on the fate of federal district court nominee Leon Holmes -- which Edwards may or may not be around for, TBD -- and Bush's visits with stalled judicial nominees in North Carolina(!) and Michigan tomorrow.

The guy who makes (spilled) Diet Coke the unofficial drink of the 2004 campaign?

As NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported first this morning: Edwards.

Kudos to Kerry for keeping it under wraps for so long, the latest groundbreaker in a series from both sides in the realm of campaign process. And we mean that literally, since after NBC tried scoping out the hangar where the Kerry campaign charter was getting its new decal yesterday, the plane reappeared last night with a gigantic tarp covering the name alongside Kerry's. Under the windows is the phrase, "A Stronger America."

We can hear the Republicans reacting now: Nader's favorite candidate! Don't forget Nader recently sent an open letter endorsing Edwards for the job because Edwards is "vetted and prepared and will defend the right of Americans to sue corporations that injure them." Bush and Republican National Committee e-mailed reminders of snarky things the two running mates have said about each other in the past are pouring in.

And the Bush campaign goes up today with its anticipated new national cable ad showing McCain -- Edwards' co-sponsor on their patients' bill of rights -- praising Bush and taking an implicit swipe at Edwards for allegedly being Kerry's second favorite choice after McCain. (Note that on the back of Edwards's book, "Four Trials," a complimentary McCain asserts, "Edwards has written movingly of people who were terribly wronged, and whom he helped seek some measure of justice with great skill, determination, and genuine compassion." McCain says Edwards has "the heart of a good man.")

Kerry officially announces Edwards as his running mate at a 9:00 am rally at Pittsburgh's Market Square, wrapped and tied with a rhetorical bow on "restoring responsible leadership to the White House." Edwards will not be present. After the rally, Kerry addresses the African Methodist Episcopal Church's 47th quadrennial conference in Indianapolis at 11:20 am. He scraps an afternoon speech to the NEA in DC in order to spend the evening welcoming John and Elizabeth to the farm. A Kerry source says Edwards is currently expected to arrive in Pittsburgh around 5:00 pm.

Tomorrow, the pair sets off on a multi-state tour that starts in Ohio, includes a stop in New York Thursday for the East Coast version of the recent gala Los Angeles fundraiser, and winds up in Edwards's hometown.

President Bush meets with the Prime Minister of Iceland at the White House today at 10:20 am. In addition to the new campaign TV ad with McCain, in a savvy expectations-setting effort, Bush chief strategist Matthew Dowd distributed a memo to the press yesterday to 1) remind us that all presidential challengers get a bounce -- an average swing of 15 points, he said -- after they name their running mate and hold their convention; and 2) to consequently lower expectations when this bounce occurs. In fact, Dowd surmised that since the race is tied according to the polls, Kerry could have a 55% to 40% lead by August.

(We don't doubt that Kerry will get a ephemeral bounce, but a 55%-40% race by August might scare the bejesus out of the GOP Establishment, especially if the situation in Iraq doesn't improve and if there is another less-than-stellar jobs report next month. But those are a bunch of "ifs" and "buts.")

 

Ahh...I see. So this means, T_J, that you yourself have never quoted political polls?


Is that right?


Tremble, young man, tremble.

 

In some wyas, you do come across as one of the more moderate conservatives in here, but in other ways you specialize in the damning-with-faint-praise version of snipes as much as T_J specializes in over the top inaccurate rhetoric.

 

I think it's harder to say it doesn't matter at all than it is to say it definitely matters. I know, for myself, Bush's decision to pick Cheney ( God forgive me) was a turning point in my mind, and from that point on I was pretty much leaning his way. I think that in a campaign as evenly divided as this one has been, or last one was, a VP announcement and/or a significant surge can have a lasting ffect on people who are on the fence. Not to say this lead will even last ( though if you read the pollsters, they expect this lead to actually increase, especially given the gas price projections) but history shows that some bumps are virtually meaningless, while some are the beginnings of what we later saw as one candidate becoming the clear favorite. I don't know which this one is, but I doubt anyone else does either.

 

Additionally, and of serious concern to GOP strategists is this point about what we are currently seeing:


Despite seriously low apporval rates for Bush, the polls have shown Kerry and Bush in virtual dead heats since pretty much the beginning. At least part of that has been due to a political victory for Bush, the ability to maintain the focus, and the subsequent inability of Kerry to define himself beyond how he was being defined by the GOP. This has worked against Bush, to a degree, because much of the focus on him has been negative, and has resulted in people choosing to vote against him, but it has also kept the numbers of voters who would vote for Kerry relatively low.

This bump represents more than just an increase in Kerry approval. As important, maybe more so, it represents a significant bump in Kerry attention, and that has served him well, as the attention has been used to help define him in his own right, and we now see people thinking of Kerry as the serious senior statesman to Edwards exciting newcomer persona.

Political momentum is like lightning in a bottle, but it stats somewhere, and if Kerry/Edwards goes on to gain a Clinton like surge, it might have started here. It would have to have started somewhere, right? Where, exactly, did Clinton's begin? Wherever it was, you can rest assured that, at the time, Republican pondits were saying it was meaningless.

 

It certainly could be.