But but...Willy was fast!!! Seriously, you hit the nail on the head. I loved Willy's developed defense in Minute Maid's monster centerfield but this wasn't an awful trade for the Astros at all.
I don't know that he will be mediocre, but I know he has been the past few years. We don't know if he's a rental, but we know we'll have to pay quite a bit to keep him if he does well. And, we also don't know that the guys we traded will be mediocre.
Prior to last year, sure. He was pretty damn far from mediocre in '06. The Stros think he "got it" at some point the last year or so. They, and JJ, spoke about it at the time of the trade: that he's matured, knows how to pitch now, etc. We'll see. If he leaves after this year, then yes, that trade looks pretty bad.
Agreed. I actually do like Jennings. I remember reading several good things about him over the years. And considering he pitched in Colorado his high ERA is understandable. It's just the 1 year thing that bothers me.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/05top10s/astros.html Baseball America, top Astros prospects of the Decade. 2004: Taylor Buchholz
So you think in two years, he went from the absolute top of the Astros organization to a nothing? Let's see, in 2004, he's the Astros top prospect. In 2006, he's wins a starting job for the Astros over other "top prospects". He goes 26 innings in April, giving up 12 hits with a WHIP of 0.76, and has one of the most dominant months of any pitcher in all of major league baseball in his first year in the majors. He then proceeds to really struggle for much of the season with inconsistency. That December, he's no longer anything? You don't go from being the single best prospect in an organization to nothing that quickly, especially not when you slows flashes of being pretty damn good at the major league level.
I didn't realize I said he was nothing. I said he wasn't a top prospect. There's a difference. Furthermore, claiming someone is a "top prospect" of an organization means very little if that organization's minor league system isn't strong. In the Astros case, it's been weak for at least the last four years. Buchholz fell out of favor last season for an inability to keep his fastball down and a lack of command on his off-speed pitches. His fastball, while solid, isn't enough to compensate for his issues with location and leaving the ball up. His breaking stuff isn't sharp enough to make up for that either. Most experts said at the time of the Wagner trade that Buchholz was a good prospect, but not an elite one of the Hamels/Floyd class, and that made it a good trade for the Phillies. In fact, the buzz at the time was that Astacio was the more talented pitcher with a higher ceiling. Did he have a quality April? Sure. Of course, the Astros also had another starter excel in April, with a 2.53 ERA and 4-0 record. His name was Wandy Rodriguez. Younger pitchers often have excellent starts to their careers, only to have to make adjustments when hitters learn scouting reports. Buchholz did not. There's a reason why a pitching-starved team like the Rockies projects him in the bullpen. There's a reason why his ERA is at almost 7 this spring. http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_5390506 And none of this even mentions his history of injuries, including multiple sources who claim his shoulder was questionable enough for the White Sox to scrap the entire Garland deal. I'd be willing to make a tip jar bet with anyone that Buchholz won't have one season in his entire career of 150+ IP and an ERA of under 4.
