We don't have to get the band back together every year. Brantley needs to go Keeping the window open works better when you lose one or two guys at a time. Work a Pena in one year. Work Luis Garcia in there the year before. Slide a Hunter Brown in there at some point. Holding onto every guy until they can't hit over .200 any more and letting them all go at once is a recipe for disaster. Let Brantley and Yuli go and work two younger guys in and see what you have. You will then hopefully have found two guys that are reliable major leaguers there by the time Altuve and Bregman need to go. Trade for Max Kepler and stick him in left and let Yainer play first or Hensley.
just seeing this sorry. brantley is an upgrade to the lineup. and i'd bet heavily on 2023 regular season yuli being an upgrade over 2022 regular season yuli. we are seeing he still has it as we speak, and like i said, elite defensively still regardless. diaz i'd take if cheap enough, but would take or leave. lineup is plenty good with this pitching in tact. can reevaluate at trade deadline.
I totally see this point of view and agree that no one wants those 4 traded. But I think that if JV is resigned and at least one of those 6 are not traded it hinders the Astros rather than helping them. Therefore, even trading Framber or Javier is preferred to not making a trade at all. My opinion.
I just looked at my 2023 spreadsheet and zeroed out all the options. So no JV, no Mancini, No Will Smith. This left an AAV before minors, MLB Taxes (Revenue Sharing), etc. of $99,677,167. These are currently active players only and 2023 ages and status. Controlled (estimates) from Trade Rumors or Minimum Salaries. Position 2B R Altuve 33 $23,357,143 3B R Bregman 29 $20,000,000 LF L Alvarez 26 $19,166,667 C R Maldonado 36 $5,000,000 RF L Tucker 26 ARB1 ($5,600,000) CF R McCormick 28 CC3 ($720,000) OF R Meyers 27 CC2 ($720,000) SS R Pena 25 CC2 ($720,000) IF R Hensley 27 CC1 ($720,000) IF R Dubon 28 A1 (1,200,000) Pitchers SP R McCullers 29 $17,000,000 SP L Valdez 29 A2 ($7,400,000) SP R Javier 26 A1 ($3,300,000) SP R Urquidy 28 A1 ($3,200,000) SP R Garcia 26 CC3 ($1,500,000) SP R Brown 24 CC1 ($720,000) CL R Pressly 34 $15,000,000 RP R Nerris 34 $8,500,000 RP R Stanek 31 A3 ($3.100,000) RP R Maton 30 A3 ($2,500,000) RP R Abreu 26 CC3 ($720,000) RP R Martinez 28 CC1 ($720,000)
Resign Verlander 3 years 100 million Year 3 voidable if he doesn't pitch 150 innings in the first 2 seasons Jose Abreu 3 years 70 million To Orioles Framber Valdez To Astros Colton Cowser (CF) Jordan Westburg (SS, 2B, 3B) Cionel Perez (LHP) Samuel Bassalo (C) Grayson Rodriguez? Some logic here... selling high on Framber. Orioles over pay to get him in same division as Yankees. If Grayson is included we get 3 of their top 5 prospects. Grayson is on TJ so will sit out 2023. In Cowser we get a nearly major leage ready cf who hits lefty and is 22 with a 1.000 ops in AA who is from Cypress. Westburg is 23 and plays all over as depth and possibly a DH option in 1 or 2 years. Perez comes back after posting a 1.40 era (57 ip) and leftys hitting .224 and .536 ops against him. Basallo is just depth as an 18 year old catcher showing some offense in rookie ball. Grayson was top prospect in baseball prior to TJ surgery. Grayson can be brought along slowly with our depth. Not sure they part with Grayson but if so would be similar package as Reds got for Castillo. That also frees up extension cash to Tucker by not having to pay both him and Framber. Tucker extension: 5 years 140 million Resign Gurriel 1 year 10 million, club option 8 million year 2 Lineup 2B Altuve SS Pena DH Abreu LF Alvarez 3B Bregman RF Tucker CF Cowser 1B Gurriel C Maldonado Rotation Verlander Mccullers Javier Garcia Brown Bullpen Pressly Neris Stanek Perez Abreu Urquidy Martinez Bench Lee /Diaz Hensley Westburg Dubon McCormick
Yandy Diaz I have them non tendering, trading, or letting walk Aledmys, Maton, Smith, Montero, Mancini, and Vazquez.
I had an error in my formula on my spreadsheet. The breakdown for Returning Active Roster Players is: Position $77,203,810 Pitchers $63,660,000 Returning $140,863,810 Options $48,000,000
Trading Framber is as asinine as the Texans trading DeAndre Hopkins. I trust the player development enough to think we don't need to make costly trades in terms of money and talent. But if Anaheim insists on Dubon for Trout...
With the shift rule changes making ground ball pitchers less valuable and Framber being closer to free agency than the other young starting pitchers. entertaining offers on him might not be a terrible idea.
Cowser, Westbury and Kjerstad may be more reasonable. No way Grayson is involved in my opinion. This is exactly the type of trade that I think Luhnow would make to stay ahead of the curve, but I don't think it will happen now.
Verlander at 3/100 is an insane underpay according to his market. Tucker at 5/140 is an absurd overpay. He will likely make 45-50 in arbitration- you are essentially giving him 2/90 or so before he’s earned it. No way Baltimore would pay that for Framber (I’m not completely opposed to moving him this off-season- ground ball pitchers age in dog years- but that’s an unrealistic package). JV is probably 3/120. Tickets extension- if it’s for 5 years- isn’t likely to be more than $110M. I’d personally be ok with something like 8/200- he might think about that if he likes Houston. Offer Javier 5-60 Garcia- 6/50 (he’s till got 1 year of minimum wage) Urquidy- 5- 40 Altuve 2-40 Bregman- 4/100 Peña- 8/100 (he’s got 2 years of minimum age- 3 arbitration and he’s already 25) Chas- 6/30 I’d trade Nerris and Maton both- just don’t need them. Yuli and Brantley and A Diaz gone. Hensley, Y Diaz promoted. Sign Abreu- 3/75. I’m not suggesting all those extensions would be accepted- maybe just 1 or 2. But that would be my offers.
There has to be turnover among active roster players and starters to maintain long term success. It's hard to get out of the "All In / Window of Opportunity" mindset of a medium or small market clubs. It's also hard to not fall into the trap of "Buy a Championship" mindset of Large Market clubs. We are creating a new and better path by early recognition of underdeveloped player development opportunities and refusing to play the overpay for Free Agents game. Seeking value includes non traditional methodology to find the point of diminishing returns for even great players. A wise and astute man once told me you can overpay the best player in the game. Every player, no matter how good or how bad has a point of optimal value.
JV For him to return, I think we have to make an offer worth $35M to $40M AAV. I have little doubt he'll receive offers for more, but he appears to be a homebody who likes stability. If we are close, I think he stays. But I do think there should be a way to protect both the player and the club when utilizing options. Player Option for low performance/injury and Club Option for High performance. While many think contracts are boiler plate, creativity is only limited to the willingness to find a meeting of the minds and MLB/MLBPA acceptability under their Basic Agreement.
Brantley will be 36. Yuli will be 39. Each has had success when healthy, but you really can't count on them.
