The whole "he needs to stop being so selective and knock in some runs" argument shows severe lack of understanding regarding the game of baseball. Being selective at the plate is a skill, period. It doesn't change based on the situation. Ensberg is having another terrific season at 3B for the Astros, with an OBP of just under .400 and an OPS around .900. He's actually improved his discipline at the plate while keeping his home run numbers the same. Also, all of the snide comments about VORP remind me of really old people talking about computers and cars. "Back in my day, we had to walk seventeen miles uphill in the snow to get to school. Now we have all these new-fangled automobiles and what not". VORP is an incredibly useful stat.
Wrong. If anything, OBP is understated in terms of value. Some reseach has shown that it can be up to three times more important relative to slugging percentage. Not making outs is the best way to score runs.
This is completely dependent on the team around you. As an extreme example, if the three people hitting behind you all hit 0.000 and don't walk, and the people in front of you constantly get on base, then your getting on base by walk is virtually worthless except in moving the order along, whereas if you hit for a lower average but don't walk as much, your team will score more often. On the other hand, if you have good hitters behind you, then yeah, the walking will help a whole lot more. The value of getting on base is dependent on your position in the order and the quality of the order around you.
EDIT: whereas if you hit for a higher average but don't walk as much, your team will score more often.
Right now Mo's biggest assest is OBP; If he can continue to draw the walks why not stick him in front of Berkman and Lamb who are the biggest run producers on the team right now. Ensberg can get on base and the other guys can drive him in; does him no good wasting away 7th in the order.
But he also sucks as a batter - and in the 3 spot, he comes up a lot with people on and never drives them in. I would almost put him in the leadoff spot at this point, because that's where he'll have the fewest RBI opportunities and more people will have a chance to drive him in if he walks.
The whole point is that OBP is a reflection of certain skills, a major one being selectivity. You can't just switch that on and off. It's part of being a "good" hitter. That's why the whole "stop being selective" argument is inane.
The point of this thread is to suggests adjustments the Astros need to make to win. WHO CARES what Mo's numbers look like over the season. In the past 30 days he has been complete garbage. His OPS is 607 and has ZERO home runs. WILLY T has a higher OPS than him, WILLY T!!!!!! If you want to throw stats around, make sure the implications you derive are fair
i completely disagree. selectivity is a great trait...but there's a thin line between that and just flat out not being aggressive at the plate. there is no way you can convince me that morgan has been a "good" hitter, despite his OBP this season, nomar. no way in the world. he's called on to drive in runs. the runners have been there for him time and time again...and he's come up short. yet, he leads the team in OBP. even over Berkman, the last time I checked. there's simply no way in the world i'll buy that i should value ensberg over berkman because his OBP is higher. i think OBP is overrated because of beane, frankly. he comes off like the genuis in moneyball, and everyone else is portrayed as saying the earth is flat. makes for a great little story, i guess. but i think OBP is highly overrated if it's treated as THE criteria by which to judge a hitter. because hitters are called on to do different things in the lineup. jeff bagwell was a kick-ass hitter not merely because he was able to get on base...but because he was able to drive in runs over the course of his career. i don't care how much higher someone else's OBP is than his, you want a guy like that batting in the meat of your order. andruw jones is noted as an undisciplined hitter...but you can't tell me that you wouldn't prefer him to morgan ensberg in your lineup right now, despite the fact that ensberg's OBP is .042 points higher right now. here's where i think it gets overrated. moneyball is about finding what other people UNDERVALUE and avoiding what they OVERVALUE. it doesn't obviate what's needed...it just accounts for the notion that a small-market team might not be able to afford it. but it's then applied universally as if every team is scrounging for that talent. meanwhile, if you make a decision that starting pitching is way too overvalued, you let guys go that you shouldn't. wanna look at a small market team that's a model of success?? try the twins. and they locked up santana at a high cost, because they realized it's important to pay sometimes even for those things that other teams value.
that's kind of my point, isn't it? if this were berkman, your answer would have been, "as long as he needs because his track record suggests this is simply an aberration." but with ensberg, we don't know what it is, other than an extended period of abject futility. and not having another option falls in purpura's lap for not at least considering, "hmmmm... the guy's 29; he was never regarded as anything much beyond an average prospect... i might want to consider the possibility last year was a bit of a fluke and generate a plan B just in case." instead, he assumed it was the start of a great career and did nothing. as for other options, lamb at 3B, no matter how dangerous defensively, is a better option. i'd then move pence up, stick him in right field and let berkman stay at first. or i'd move luke scott up if the team continues to treat all their prospects with kid gloves. other options: can zobrist play third? scan the waiver-wire for available third basemen; scan rosters for possible decent back-up third basemen; hold an open audition at MMP for third basemen. i mean, right now, he is the second worst everyday player in all of baseball. unfortunately, our roster is also home to the worst...
you know... i'm not a knee-jerk fan; i try, as hard as it sometimes is, to stay grounded and realistic, always with an eye on the big picture. but i'd be hard-pressed to understand how anyone could defend ensberg right now at his his current clip. it's not like it's been a week or two - it's been six solid weeks of awful offensive production. so how, pray tell, are we out of our minds?
Sounds like an excellent idea, I was thinking the same. Hitting second, walks are ALWAYS effective, and a high OBP is a benefit. He'd definitely see better pitches to hit batting in front of Burke and Berkman. I don't see why Ensberg's being scapegoated, though. He's going through a rough stretch, but he's a good hitter who's still on pace for 30+ home runs, and he plays solid defense at 3rd. We have bigger offensive problems, namely SS and C. Meanwhile, one of our corner OFs is on pace for about 15 homers and 150 strikeouts.
Alot of Moneyball is bs. The A's had that success largely because of Zito, Hudson, and Mulder. Doesn't negate the effectiveness of statistical analysis though. A team scores runs through hitters being productive. Telling Ensberg to be less selective and more aggressive will decrease his production, and decrease the amount of runs scored. OBP is more closely correlated with runs scored than any of the other basic metrics. I don't think OBP is THE criteria, either. Don't know where you got that. There are tons of park adjusted, league adjusted metrics that tell a more complete picture. I do think that his OBP is indicative of the fact that Ensberg is a very productive offensive player. In any case, this discussion is a moot point. Purpura instituted a new organizational hitting philosophy to emphasize selectivity and OBP. You can see the results this year best in the form of Jason Lane's new approach. PS: His rc/27 number is still very solid in the high 6s. If you believe in math, you will recognize that he is still very productive.
i hear ya. i just have a hard time categorizing a season for a cleanup hitter as being "productive" when he's doing what ensberg is doing. this team is struggling to score runs and they've leaving way too many runners on base. ensberg is a huge part of that. i don't care if he draws a 2-out walk with runners on 1st and 3rd. he's supposed to be the guy who is driving those runs in. we're not asking AE to drive runs in consistently...we're not asking Ausmus to, either. nor the pitcher. but the guy batting in the 4 spot needs to get runs in when he comes up to the plate. he's simply not doing that. and looking at OBP and saying he's productive when he's not doing that is just silly to me.
