Morning of 2/19: The Rockets are over or under the luxury tax?

xiki · Jan 30, 2010

BimaThug said:

Basically, the two most obvious ways for the Rockets to get below the luxury tax threshold by February 19 are:

(1) A major T-Mac trade that involves the Rockets taking back less 2009-10 salary than it trades out (as Clutch has mentioned); or

(2) Paying another team to take Brian Cook's contract.

. . . I'm calling my shot. (Again, this only applies if T-Mac is not traded.)

On February 18, 2010, the Houston Rockets will trade Brian Cook, cash (about $2-3M) and their 2011 second rounder (the higher of theirs or the Clippers') to the Memphis Grizzlies in exchange for Lester Hudson.
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Your reasoning is solid, irrefutable.

Add: Clips to Griz scenario BTW, for many of same reasons.

Now, I'm calling my shot: if Rox do indeed trade McG, and I believe they will (with Philly, Wiz, GS and Indy as my better guesses) then a second trade will almost simultaneously occur and one or some of Battier, Scola, Bud will go as well as Cook and/or Dorsey and/or Andersen. That's a lot of bodies moving but the dust will settle on better hopes for Rox.

And with Les getting not giving lux tax bux.

leebigez · Jan 30, 2010

DaDakota said:

Words have been that they would go over the tax line.

Actions have proven otherwise.

Actions speak louder than words.

DD
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Tha truth my brother

leebigez · Jan 30, 2010

BimaThug said:

Basically, the two most obvious ways for the Rockets to get below the luxury tax threshold by February 19 are:

(1) A major T-Mac trade that involves the Rockets taking back less 2009-10 salary than it trades out (as Clutch has mentioned); or

(2) Paying another team to take Brian Cook's contract.

As it stands now, the Rockets are about $2.7M over the tax threshold (a conservative estimate). Also note that if Will Conroy (or some other D-League player) is signed for the rest of the season after the trade deadline (either to add them as an asset or simply to comply with the league's mandatory minimum of players), that will add another approximately $300,000 towards the Rockets' total team salary for luxury tax purposes. So, for all intents and purposes, the Rockets need to reduce payroll anywhere from $2.7M to $3M.

Now, the T-Mac Trade variable is so unknown, so it is impossible to discern at this point whether such a trade will actually get the Rockets below the threshold. For instance, a T-Mac trade could get the Rockets very close, and then Morey could then just pay another team to take Dorsey's $881k salary, which would cost the Rockets less than it would cost to get rid of Cook.

So, assuming for a moment that T-Mac is not traded (or is traded for equal salary), I am going to do something fairly uncharacteristic for me . . . I'm calling my shot. (Again, this only applies if T-Mac is not traded.)

On February 18, 2010, the Houston Rockets will trade Brian Cook, cash (about $2-3M) and their 2011 second rounder (the higher of theirs or the Clippers') to the Memphis Grizzlies in exchange for Lester Hudson.

The Grizzlies are about $3.2M below the salary cap right now. That's not far enough to absorb Cook's $3.5M contract. However, if the Griz give up a low salaried player, the trade will work. Hudson makes the rookie minimum salary of about $457k. This trade would get the Rockets far enough under the tax threshold to not only take back Hudson's salary but also add Conroy, if they so chose. Heck, Hudson's actually a pretty decent young player.

The biggest impediment I see to the above trade, however, is Miami. Apparently, the Heat are above the luxury tax threshold as well, by a number that just so happens to be the same amount as Dorrell Wright's salary. Wright is a quality young player, and Memphis has actually shown some interest in him. If Miami is willing to part with a decent player who is helping the team, all to get below the tax, then a Dorrell Wright to Memphis trade is quite likely. Wright makes just enough to fit within the Grizzlies' remaining cap space.

So, if Miami offers Dorrell Wright to Memphis (who, by the way, is making a playoff run of their own this season and could use another good wing player), the Rockets would need to "up the ante" to get them to take Cook instead. Maybe that means offering up the full $3M in cash. Maybe it means offering up the draft rights to an international player like Lior Eliyahu. I don't see Morey or Les being willing to give up the team's 2010 first rounder (especially since it may be as high as #12 overall), but it's possible that a future (highly-protected) first rounder may need to be involved.

But, there it is. I've called my shot. I may be wrong. I may be mostly right, with a very similar Houston-Memphis swap taking place. But I think that trade makes TOO much sense to both teams. That is, if Michael Heisley stays true to his money-saving ways and opts for a financial windfall over a more basketball-related move. Keep in mind, for as good a season as the Grizzlies are having, they are still DEAD LAST in the league in attendance. That can't be helping Heisley's bottom line.
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I've thought about this too when i scanned the teams under the cap or under the lt threshold. Thats what the rockets are looking at, teams under the lt threshold.

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Morning of 2/19: The Rockets are over or under the luxury tax?

Will the Rockets be over or under the luxury tax line after the trade deadline?

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