only way to do this is to extend yao's contract and let Tmac go into FA market. You have to be under the salary cap to do the big FA signing, not under the luxury tax. So you have to take the chance with Tmac willing to resign with rox, where i'm sure the few teams that did not manage to land any of the big FA will offer those money to Tmac. look where brand ended up. Clips are lucky that at least they still got baron, but just think of the possibility that rox did not get to sign anyone, and tmac got sign to a big contract somewhere else. That leave us with yao and a bunch of role players.
Amare would be sick I would love to have a 2 year old Nash as well, as long as we would be able to sign Mcgrady again.
excellent work and great post i could see what u said very easily happening cause we will want to keep tmac if he takes a pay cut and there is no way we let yao walk. it would be fun to see them add a really really good player to play alongside them
When was the last time a team won a championship with this plan ahead with the cap strategy? It seems teams are doing this cap space thing all the time and never do any of them win a championship.
But that's the thing. Even with both Yao (at the max) AND Tracy (extended to a reduced, but still very large, salary), the Rockets will STILL have significant SALARY CAP room. I'm talking about being below the salary cap, let alone the luxury tax threshhold.
ok, coming season salary cap is at $58.68 million, last season is $55.63 million and the season before that is US$53.135. So i estimate the that the salary cap at 2010 will be 63m. Senario 1 Players under contract that year. Yao- 17m Battier- 7m AB- 2m Novak- 1m Estimation of other contracts. Scola- 5m <- estimate resign contract Landry- 6m <- 2008 MLE Hayes- 2m Greene- 2m <-rookie contract Dorsey- 1m <-rookie contract That is 43m. That meant rox have 20m to sign a top player, while hoping to resign tmac with the MLE. And use the min and LLE to fill up the squad. Senario 2. Letting battier/landry go before the 2010 season for someone that expire his contract. 17m for yao, 20 for new FA, 15m for tmac(which will be a paycut of 8m). 5m for scola. 5m for all the young players- AB, Greene, Dorsey, 2 draft picks of 2009. Which leaves the MLE, LLE and min to fill up 7 rosters. First senario hangs on the balance of Tmac willing to resign with the MLE as rox will be over the cap. 2nd senario is that releasing battier and landry, while hoping that tmac is willing to take a 8m pay cut. Now tell me is that logical?
I'd rather want a big deal this summer,2010 is too distant for me. Maybe then Yao and T-mac will be trade out.
During the gold rush era in Australia, lots of people come to try their luck at making it rich by finding that big piece of gold. Only a very small percentage of the gold diggers got rich. On the other hand, lots of shop keepers and traders who were there not for the gold but to provide for the gold diggers died wealthy. I think this is what the Rockets should do. Stockpile on expiring contracts and don't take on long term salaries, but do it not with the intent of chasing LeBron in 2010, but to take advantage of the rush of teams trying to clear cap room to get into the LeBron sweepstake.
Awesome thread. The one thing I think is that we don't have to wait until 2010 though. We can try to trade Battier, Francis and maybe Brooks to the Kings for Artest and have him sign another 3 year extension with us. With Yao, Artest and T-mac we will 2 of the next 3 titles.
Alvin, first of all, teams that are significantly under the cap CANNOT use the MLE or LLE, so your two scenarios do not work. Second, the max salary for any star player the Rockets would target in free agency would likely not be more than $17-18M ($20M would only be for 10+ year veterans, and the Rockets wouldn't want to sign such an old player to the max). Third, there is no way in hell that Tracy McGrady--one of the league's most talented players--is going to take a pay cut from being one of the top 5 highest paid players in the NBA all the way down to the MLE. Nor should he have to. Even two years from now, Tracy will only be 31. He will still have a couple of years left playing at a top level. Signing him to an extension at a high (but not his grandfathered max) salary is also going to be key to luring any top-notch free agents. Sure, Tracy forced a trade from Orlando in 2004 in order to play with a good young center in Yao; but the top FREE AGENTS (who have total say over where they go) will be much more willing to pick Houston if they can play with BOTH Yao AND Tracy. Take another look at the salary commitments from my OP below: With a salary cap in 2010 of approximately $65.7M, the Rockets would then have total player salary commitments ranging from $44M (if no team options are exercised, Rafer's and Scola's rights are renounced, and the team trades its 2009 and 2010 first rounders) to about $60M (if all team options are exercised, Scola is re-signed and all first rounders are kept). My guess is that the Rockets' will take a route somewhere in between and then make a minor trade or two (like the Carney/Booth deal that Philly just made) in order to clear any additional cap space it needs to sign an impact free agent. Once again, my entire thought process behind this thread was that IF Morey could not pull off a deal by this upcoming February's trade deadline for a significant player, then Rockets fans should realize that those expiring contracts did not come off the books in vain. Obviously, taking advantage of other teams' delusions of getting Lebron or otherwise freeing up cap space will be Morey's #1 priority between now and February; but make sure to keep an open mind regarding the best course of action for the LONG TERM future of the Houston Rockets franchise. That significant player might not be available, and wishing for it won't make it so. IF/WHEN it becomes apparent that no such significant player is available for the right price, THEN Morey should move to this strategy rather than submitting to what will, no doubt, be many Rockets fans' demands that Houston use its MLE in the summer of 2009. Either if Morey can take advantage of the expiring contracts by February, or if he can't and then shifts to this strategy, then I think you will see the Houston Rockets (along with the Los Angeles Lakers and the Portland Trailblazers) become a top team in the Western Conference from 2010-11 onward.
i'm sure by 2010, if yao is still a dominant player and big name guys are saying publicly they want to sign with us, tmac WILL resign for less money. i mean, tmac NEEDS to win if he wants his name in the legends books. 2 years from now, he'll still be a serviceable all-star. i'm sure he'll get big money thrown at him, but most likely, it's from bad teams, and tmac will not go to bad teams. he doesn't have to make a name for himself anymore. he needs to win.
it hasn't attracted any decent free agents thus far. barry only signed with us b/c his role was extremely small with the spurs last yr in the playoffs.
get what you mean, agreed. solid posts that describes a blueprint of promising Rockets in 2010... I suppose 2008-2010 is a `Golden Time` to build our chemistry heading for the imagined sunshine roster. We, Rockets fans need more patience to witness them happen, hopefully.
Tmac wont sign with that much money to have room to get lebron or wade....itll probably be lebronyao/wadeyao
BimaThug, A great job in the thread. I hope Yao would just take less money in the next term (less than the max) to allow the team to attract other players (if it is allowed by the rule). By then if we can not get LJ, DW. at least we should have a better chance to get a player like JJ.
