That's the point. You need to accept the fact that OKC is much better than us. To a beat a team that's better than you, you need luck on your side. The more "variance" there is, the greater the chance of stealing a few games due to luck.
Where are some of you getting this interpretation from? High variance = more variability = more variety
Variance describes the spread of a set of numbers. Its quantifiable. I don't think it makes sense to use the term "variance" for mixing up the offense sets. It makes more sense that he meant we need a strategy that increases the variance in our offensive and defensive efficiency. It could increase our chance of getting blown out, but also increase our chance of stealing some games.
Variance is a very specific term used in statistics. It refers to outcomes with a higher spread of results. It's similar to using jabs versus going for the knock out punch. You won't hit the knock out punch often and you'll get knocked out more often, but when you do get a knock out punch you 100% win. Using jabs you won't knock the guy out very often, but you won't get be over extended knocked out very often either. And yes, by definition this is depending on luck. This is NOT a bad thing. If you are the superior team, you want to eliminate luck as much as possible. You want the game to be decided by execution and experience. If you are the inferior team, you want to introduce more luck. You do NOT want the game to be decided by execution and experience. Think of it like playing poker. You sit at the table with the world series champion. If you play enough hands, they'll take all your money. You'll get a lucky hand now and then, but over time their skill will outrun your luck. However, if you shorten the number of hands and try to get all the money in the pot on 50/50 hands, then their skill becomes a non-factor. The win becomes a pure coin flip... in other words, you have leveled the playing field. It is both luck and strategy. OKC wants to beat us by making it about who is the better team. Houston's best chance of winning is accepting that OKC is the better team making it about who is having a good shooting night.
Guys, guys, guys...SPREAD the NUMBERS. Clearly, he's talking about spreading the jerseys farther apart, so Harden can iso some more. Seriously though, like the last few posts just said, they're better than us. If both teams just go out there and "do what they do", they're going to win more games than they lose, like they do during the season. You don't take that approach in a 1 versus 8 match up, maybe in a 4 versus 5. You have to make them play differently in a negative direction (negative for them).
Lol this was hilarious, especially the hashtag. You know which player on the Rockets has the official Coaches Endorsement for Variance? Jeremy Lin. Kevin McHale won’t make the same proclamation about Lin. Not yet. The Houston coach calls his playmaker “a home run hitter,” and doesn’t mean that in a good way. “Sometimes he’d rather have 29 points and nine turnovers and I tell him, ‘Jeremy, we’re trying to win,’ ” McHale said. Home run plays = variance, high risk, high reward. Yeah, LOF, McFail hater, whatever right? Just joined since playoffs. Couldn't agree with Morey more. Houston's only shot at beating OKC in a best of 7 is to play a game predicated on lots of "home run plays," gambling in the passing lanes, three pointers (as many here have pointed out) and I think it would be best (although this is the least likely to happen) if all the Rockets players just took their open shots (particularly beyond the arc) with conviction. Everyone on this team (even Harden at times when he's not feeling it, although his shooting conscience only comes out in absolutely atrocious games) passes up wide open looks beyond the arc to pass or dribble into a worse shot, often times a contested 2. Rookies like TJones, DMO, clearly do this a lot but Parsons, Lin, Beverly and even Delfino have done this at times to the detriment of ending up with a worse shot.
Did you all catch Morey's Variance yesterday? Morey has been mentioning how he was going to throw variance at the Thunder. I wanted to know if you all caught what he did differently? What did you all see? Here are some things I think could help increase the variance (though I don't know if this is what Morey meant): Tire OKC Out -Pass the ball around the wing, inside, outside, etc. If you pass a lot, it tires the defense out a lot more. Also, usually leads to a good shot. Throw some half-court/full-court presses out there -Obviously can't do this a lot because we know OKC can break a press, but I think throwing one or two out there could fluster them. 1st few minutes of every quarter's focus: Put OKC in Foul Trouble -At the beginning of each quarter, put the first 3-4 minutes of offensive focus on drawing fouls for a single player (my priority would be Ibaka or Westbrook).
The way I phrased it may not be right but he said that would be the key in his reddit interview. I'm sure he has some input
Ignoring Sefolosha on the perimeter to pack the paint. One example: <object type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="392" data="http://getembedplus.com/embedplus.swf" id="ep1881"> <param value="http://getembedplus.com/embedplus.swf" name="movie" /> <param value="high" name="quality" /> <param value="transparent" name="wmode" /> <param value="always" name="allowscriptaccess" /> <param value="true" name="allowFullScreen" /> <param name="flashvars" value="ytid=6ZZyiNycfA4&width=640&height=360&start=&stop=&hd=0&autoplay=0&react=1&chapters=¬es=" /> <iframe class="cantembedplus" title="YouTube video player" width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/6ZZyiNycfA4?fs=1" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> </object> <!--[if lte IE 6]> <style type="text/css">.cantembedplus{display:none;}</style><![endif]--> This isn't a new adjustment, though. The Rockets did exactly that in their last regular season match-up against OKC.
I've heard a Rocket or Rocket coach (I think it was Lin) use variance before. He was referring to the variance in play option selection. So if the Rockets run a Harden PnR, actions after the PnR would have a high variance. Sometimes Harden dishes to roll man. Sometimes he takes three. Sometimes he kicks it out.
There are a variety of ways that a PNR play can develop but I don't think that was what Morey was referring to here. He's probably talking about the 3-point shot instead. Statistically, team 3point % varies the most out of any other shot in the game, and because of its high-risk high-reward nature, it can make or break a team.
Morey succeeded in increasing the variance between the # of points HOU scored and the # of points OKC scored. Great job!
Hey guys, the bulls got owned in game 1 and look now, they are actually better and bounced back. Granted the bulls and nets are no where comparable to okc, but don't let one game bring us down. Anything can happen, I have hope we steal game 2.
Way back in 2008, Rick Adelman had a bunch of role players , Ron Artest and a Gimpy Yao and they ran an offense which pretty much increases the variance and took the Lakers to seven (7) games. He didn't have a top 5 scorer, the league's top rebounder, or talented young players. He had Chuck Hayes anchoring the middle but that team was still the only team that took the Lakers to seven (7) games. No other team was able to compete that hard against the Lakers even in the finals.
