Here's Hollinger's take. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insi...nist=hollinger_john&page=garnettdealhollinger Can the Celtics compete for a title with a triumvirate of Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce? Seems like they should, right? But if they're going to, Danny Ainge's work is far from done. By trading Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair and Gerald Green to the Wolves to get Garnett, as has been reported as likely to happen, the Celtics' team president would be denuding the rest of the roster. Right now the opening day roster would consist of the "Big Three" and not much else -- you're basically looking at a glorified version of the Washington Wizards, folks. Let's look at what that means by the numbers. I have a model I use for preseason predictions, and today I used it to plug in the projected PERs for the big three, plus those of Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins and Leon Powe. Then I added an estimate for what Tony Allen might do in his return from knee surgery and rounded out the rotation with three "replacement level" players with a PER of 10. After all that I came out with … 46 wins. Which is nice, and in a sad commentary on the East puts the Celtics into the mix for a spot in the Finals. But at the same time it probably isn't something worth mortgaging the franchise over. Obviously, Ainge can still change this, but the key is that he has to keep making moves. If you're going to go all in, Danny, go all in. Presumably he would have secured ownership's approval to use his cap exceptions and go way over the luxury tax before consummating this deal. (And if he didn't? Enjoy the Scalabrine era, KG.) If so, Ainge will need to use those dollars wisely to fill in the many holes left in his roster with decent players. The big needs I see are a second point guard, a low-post defender and a wing stopper. Between his midlevel exception, his biannual exception and the veteran's minimum, Ainge needs to convince the few remaining quality free agents to sign up at below-market rates and take a shot at the ring. If he does that (and, possibly, if Tony Allen comes back from last year's knee injury at full strength), the prospects improve significantly. If Ainge convinces, say, Ime Udoka and Brevin Knight to split his midlevel exception and persuades P.J. Brown to play for the veteran's minimum, then you're looking at another five wins or so. At that point you'd have to install the Celtics as the Eastern Conference favorites, although Boston still would fall far short of the elite teams in the West. But until then, Ainge's work is far from done. Even in the watered-down Eastern Conference, the proposed trio of Pierce, Allen and Garnett doesn't guarantee dominance. I suppose there are Celtics Kool-Aid drinkers out there who will tell you that Glen "Big Baby" Davis and Gabe Pruitt can fill the void, and we won't know for certain whether that's true until the games start. But the history of second-round draft picks says don't hold your breath, and after making moves for Allen and Garnett, probably giving themselves a two- or three-year window to contend, it seems foolish for the Celtics to leave their fate in those players' hands. But in the end, Ainge may come up short regardless of how many more cards he plays. The idea of cashing in all your chips is to leave yourself with a team that's truly great. The Celtics with Garnett are merely pretty good, and at this late stage in the free-agent market, I'm not sure they can get much better.
Agreed. The Celtics had what? The second worst record in the league last season? I'd think with the addition of Garnett and Allen the worst case scenario this season is the 8th seed in the playoffs. But seriously, as bad as the East is I won't be surprised at all to see them get to the Eastern Conference Finals. They're certainly as good as Cleveland or Miami now and maybe even Detroit. If they go from worst record in the Eastern Conference to one of the best records in the Eastern Conference, well how the hell can Ainge lose?
if Rockets go 82-0 = ) nah but i agree definently...Rockets had a good team already so everyone expects rockets to be up there in wins..Celtics could be potentially changing the entire oraganization in one summer..go from 24 wins to maybe 50 or so.. so ya Morey deserves it but if Celtics do good i think ainge will win it
Here's an interesting and relevant article: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/070730 McHale adds another notch to his Celtics legacy By Bill Simmons Page 2 Updated: July 30, 2007, 9:48 PM ET During Kevin McHale's 13-year career in Boston, he helped the Celtics capture three championships, redefined the lost art of low-post play, defended everyone from Bernard King to Andrew Toney to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and peaked as the best power forward alive in 1986 and '87. I loved watching him, I loved rooting for him and, most of all, I loved him for risking his career in the '87 playoffs by playing on a broken foot. Boston ended up losing the NBA Finals in six and his career was never quite the same. To this day, he walks with a slight limp. To this day, he says he'd do it again. When we raised McHale's No. 32 to the rafters, naturally, we assumed his last great Boston moment happened in a '93 playoff series against Charlotte, when McHale reached back in time and tortured the Hornets down low for 35 unfathomable points in Game 2. The Garden was rocking, McHale was moving like the old McHale and everything seemed right with the world again. It was one of those ESPN Classic games that you knew you'd always remember even as it was happening. And if that had been his last great act for the Celtics, I would have been fine with it. Fast-forward to 2007. The Celtics haven't mattered in 15 years. We've won three playoff series since McHale retired. We've had three above-.500 seasons. We've had terrible front-office executives and terrible coaches, people who were so horrendous at their jobs it almost defied belief. We've had a whopping two All-Stars, neither of whom was a top-10 player (although they were paid like it). Quite simply, we've sucked. Even worse, the people running the team were panicking like a teenage couple waiting for the results of a pregnancy test, culminating in last month's bizarre decision to trade the No. 5 pick for Ray Allen. We were stuck in no man's land, just good enough to make the playoffs, just young enough that we weren't making noise, and by the time our young guys matured, Allen would have been finished. For the past four weeks, I've probably been the angriest I've ever been at my favorite team. But here's what I wasn't counting on … Our old friend Kevin McHale. My NBA guide claims that McHale retired from the Celtics in 1993, but apparently that's a misprint. How else could you explain his decision to trade Kevin Garnett to Boston for the Al Jefferson pu pu platter deluxe? Just five weeks ago, McHale and Minnesota couldn't close a potential deal in which they received Jefferson and Boston's No. 5 pick. Now? They're settling for Jefferson (a potential franchise player), Ryan Gomes (an intangibles guy who's useless on a bad team), Bassy Telfair (a year away from signing in Italy), Gerald Green (a homeless man's J.R. Smith), Theo Ratliff's expiring deal, a 2009 lottery-protected No. 1 pick (congrats on picking in the mid-20s) and the return of Minny's future No. 1 that was stupidly included in the Ricky Davis/Mark Blount-Wally Szczerbiak trade. Basically, McHale traded one of the best 25 players ever -- at the tail end of his prime!!! -- for Jefferson (a free agent in two years), one year of Gomes (a free agent in '08, when he'll be leaving treadmarks on his way out of Minnesota), a harmless pick and a do-over for a pick he never should have traded. Last month, McHale walked away from the No. 5 pick in the deal. This month, he couldn't even get Boston to throw in Rajon Rondo. And honestly? I'm flabbergasted. I was vehemently against trading Jefferson and the No. 5 for KG, only because losing Jefferson wouldn't have been worth competing with two top-25 guys and a roster too young to do anything around them (as well as Doc Rivers coaching that very same team). Now? They have three All-Stars -- KG, Allen and Paul Pierce -- who rank in the top-six at their respective positions. Assuming KG and Allen have 2-3 quality seasons in them, that gives the Celts pole position in the atrocious Eastern Conference for 2008 and 2009, especially if they luck out with one more free-agent signing and an in-season veteran pickup. Now here's where it gets really good: Pierce, Allen and Garnett happen to be wired the exact same way -- three ultracompetitive guys nearing the end of their primes who would sacrifice anything to play on a winner. All of them were stuck in miserable situations last season (combined record: 87-159), all of them are good guys, all of them understand that you only have so many chances to contend. For all three guys, it will be their best team ever, regardless of who's playing with them. Allen hasn't played with a top-20 player his entire career; neither has Pierce; and Garnett hasn't played with one elite scorer, much less two. For Garnett, his major weakness (crunch-time scoring) gets solved with two proven crunch-time scorers helping him. For Pierce, his major weakness (leadership) gets obscured because he has two intense veterans who know how to deal with the media and lead by example. For Allen, his weakness (a tendency to break down) gets negated because he won't have to carry his team offensively every night. Just think of these three guys thrown together. All three carried playoff teams further than they should have gone: Pierce in 2002, Garnett in 2004, Allen in 2005. All three were on suicide watch as recently as six weeks ago, wondering how they could extract themselves from untenable (and unwinnable) situations. All three are about to become relevant again in April, May and June. Would you bet against them having monster seasons? Would you bet against them embarking on a 100-game mission to make the Finals? Hell, have three star teammates ever had more to prove in one season? There's one precedent: In August 1996, when the Rockets mortgaged their future by trading Sam Cassell and Robert Horry to the Suns for Charles Barkley, teamed the Chuckster with Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler and crossed their fingers that a paltry supporting cast (basically, Eddie Johnson, Mario Elie and a gigantic hole at point guard) wouldn't sink them. Although Dream and Glide already had won titles, their careers were at a similar point as the KG-Pierce-Allen trio -- each (including Barkley) had peaked as impact players, but each had something left in his tank. Dream averaged a 23 points and 9 rebounds, Barkley recorded 19-13.5, Drexler chipped in with an 18-6-6, and the Rockets won 57 games and came within two victories of the '97 Finals, losing to the Jazz for one reason: Rookie point guard Matt Maloney was absolutely eviscerated by John Stockton. This was like watching Frankie Williams get destroyed by Roddy Piper on Piper's Pit, only if it happened for six straight games over the course of two weeks. That's why they lost. One year later, Glide and Dream were just about done, Barkley was headed that way and the Rockets finished .500. They haven't won a playoff series since. The question remains: If you're a Rockets fan, would you make that trade again? You had that Utah series tied 2-2 before blowing a nailbiter in Utah and losing Game 6 on a Stockton buzzer-beater. You were right there. Was it worth it? In my opinion, absolutely. The whole point of fielding an NBA team is to win a title -- if you have the chance, you have to try. Even if it means crossing your fingers with the likes of Matt Maloney. Eleven years later, the Celtics find themselves in a similar spot: Three All-Stars coupled with a talented but woefully inexperienced point guard (Rondo), a promising defensive stopper coming off major knee surgery (Tony Allen), a decent backup center who plays hard (Kendrick Perkins), a new Mark Madsen for KG (Brian Scalabrine, who's already working on his high-fives and fist-pumps), two undersized power forwards (Big Baby Glen Davis, Leon Powe), two athletic rookies (Brandon Wallace, Gabe Pruitt) and that's it. There isn't an Eddie Johnson or Mario Elie to be seen. Then again, since they're likely to add one or two more ring-hungry veterans, and since the '08 Eastern Conference is between three and 200 times worse than the '97 Western Conference, who knows? In the words of Chris Shiherlis, the bank is worth the risk. Could the 2008 version of Maloney screw up Boston's first true title contender in 16 years? It's much more likely that Doc will screw it up -- he should have been fired two years ago. Then again, his three biggest problems as a coach have been: A. Coming up with a rotation and sticking to it -- not a problem now since the Celts barely have enough NBA guys on the roster. B. Killing the confidence of his point guards by yelling at them too much and yanking their minutes around -- not a problem now since Rondo is the only point guard on the roster. C. Refusing to come up with any semblance of a strategy to defend high screens -- not as much of a problem now because KG is one of the greatest pick-and-roll defenders of all-time. So maybe Doc won't be as much of an albatross this season. Besides, any team with KG, Pierce and Allen will coach itself. We can only hope. Regardless, at least the Celtics matter again. From the beginning, Danny Ainge's stated game plan was to blow up a decent 2004 team, stockpile as many assets as possible, then eventually trade those assets for one or two impact guys. In a roundabout way, that's exactly what he did -- even if the Allen trade was a complete I-need-to-save-my-job panic deal, and even if they gambled that a third All-Star miraculously would fall from the sky this summer (which is exactly what happened). Looking back, it was like watching the World Series of Poker and seeing someone say "screw it!" by going all-in with a jack-nine of spades after a flop yielded two more spades. Is it smart to risk everything on the 25-percent chance that you'll get the flush? Well, it depends on how many chips you have left. If you're desperate, and you're running out of money, and you need a momentum swing, maybe you do it. If you get the flush, it doesn't mean you were a good poker player, it just means you were losing chips and had to take an enormous risk because you didn't have any other choice. For Ainge, the Allen trade was going all-in for the flush and the KG trade was getting that fifth spade on the river. Of course, he's also the reason we were low on chips in the first place, but that's the thing about poker -- even during the most dire times, you're always one lucky hand away from turning things around. For one of the few times since Larry Bird retired, the Celtics lucked out. Now it looks like they can contend in the East. Now the Celtics are on TNT and ESPN for more than two appearances. Now Barkley and Kenny aren't making jokes about us, and free agents actually might want to play for us, and my dad isn't bemoaning the fact that he just threw away money for season tickets again. The Boston Celtics are back. Repeat: The Celtics are back. Even if we had to give up two top-seven picks and the best young low-post player in the league to get there. "I hate giving up Jefferson," my Dad said, "but we had to do it." We were on the phone going through the trade, piece by piece. Dad loved watching Jefferson. He thinks Jefferson is going to be special. At the same time, he's getting old and wanted to see them contend again. At the very least, we're contenders. That much is clear. You actually can look forward to Celtics home games again. "It's amazing this worked out," Dad said. "I always liked McHale -- maybe he had better offers, but he just wanted to help the Celtics out." "That wouldn't surprise me," I said. "He was a great Celtic." "Yeah, remember when he played on the broken foot that year? He was a great Celtic." Maybe he still is.
It wont be one year rental..because celtics said they wouldnt trade for KG unless an extension was in place...
Don't underestimate the lure of superstar names, I mean, adding Garnett and Ray Allen sounds much better than getting Scola, Mike James and Francis. It will boil down to team records and their seedings in the playoffs, and I think the Celtics have a chance of getting a top 3 seed in the East, while the rockets will probably get the exact same one as last year.
Ainge and Doc have at least secured their jobs for 2 more years. They have also filled the stadium with fans again. The Celtics have to be at least a top 3 team in the East now. Too bad they or any Eastern team still can't win the title. However, in Boston it is, "What have you done for me lately?" Minny should look real good in a few years. The Lakers had no chance to compete with what Boston gave them. One good lotto pick and Minny could be a playoff team in the West in 2 years. I'm real interested in how Gerald Green pans out. He could be a major factor in how fast Minny gets real good. Once again, the Western Conference gets even better in the grand scheme of things and takes more rising stars from the East. Nobody else in the East improved much at all in the off season. The Pistons main move was to resign Billups. The Heat's big splash was Smush Parker. The Cavs decided one guy could win it all for them this year. The other Eastern teams just got older as well. I wish the NBA would reseed temporarily until they at least don't have .500 teams making the playoffs. This has been laughable for some time now, i don't know what to call the JV league now.
I dont think so the celtics have no depth at all now. in the playoffs with no depth on your team you wont get any were
Garnett will sign an extension -- one of the conditions of the trade. More germane is Morey is a distant third for the GM of the Year award -- far behind Ainge and the GM of the Portland Trailblazers. That GM has stockpiled talent for the future, got rid of the bad eggs, and is well-positioned for the future. Morey traded a future star in Rudy Gay for a solid but mediocre Shane Battier, got lucky when San Antonio couldn't trade Luis Scola to an Eastern team and got even luckier when Steve Francis got a buyout and wanted to come "home." And now he is about to sign Chuck Hayes to a Moochie Norris contract. Hayes -- for good reason -- is a fan favorite now but Clutchfans are very fickle. I'm sure the draft of Aaron Brooks was an Adelman request, so I can't give him credit or blame for that.
So in light of this trade, given the Celtic's lack of roleplayers and our having roleplayers we need to trade, what are the chances that Boston becomes our new trading partner. They could benefit from Rafer as they are weak at point...they could benefit from a lot of our players. But, is there anything we really want back from them? especially since they are trading 2 first round picks? Moreover, I guess they'll be over the cap...but that's going to have to happen anyway.
