http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=668&e=6&u=/ap/20031211/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy Retail Sales Up by 0.9 Percent in Nov. 14 minutes ago By JEANNINE AVERSA, Associated Press Writer WASHINGTON - The nation's shoppers descended on stores with a fresh burst of energy last month, propelling retail sales by 0.9 percent. The open-wallet mind-set raised new hope that the overall economic recovery will be durable. Last month's sizable increase came after retailers' sales dropped by 0.3 percent in September and were flat in October, the Labor Department (news - web sites) reported Thursday. The increase in retail sales in November — the largest advance since August — represented a better showing than economists were expecting. They were forecasting a 0.7 percent rise. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of all economic activity. Because of that, consumers play a key role in determining how the recovery unfolds. Consumers have kept their pocketbooks and wallets sufficiently open to keep the economy going even during difficult economic times. Separately, the Labor Department reported new claims for unemployment benefits last week rose by a seasonally adjusted 13,000 to 378,000. But even with the increase, claims were at a level suggesting that the pace of layoffs is stabilizing. In November, consumers' appetite to spend pushed up sales for many types of goods — from cars and electronics and appliances to health and beauty products. Excluding sales of automobiles, sales at all other merchants rose for the second straight month by 0.4 percent in November. That showing was slightly stronger than the 0.3 percent rise economists were predicting. Amid signs that the economy is gaining traction, the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) on Tuesday decided to hold a key short-term interest rate at a 45-year low of 1 percent. Near rock-bottom rates may motivate consumers and businesses to boost spending and investment, which would lift economic growth. The economy grew at a stellar 8.2 percent rate in the third quarter, the best performance in nearly two decades. Some analysts believe the economy is growing at a slower but still healthy rate of about 4 percent in the current October-to-December period, as some of the stimulus that helped in the third quarter — another round of tax cuts and a wave of mortgage refinancing — fades. Extra money from the tax cuts and the refinancing frenzy helped put consumers in a better position to spend lavishly during the summer. And they did. After the summer buying spree, consumers took a breather in September and October. The steady reading on sales in October was based on revised figures released Thursday. That actually marked an improvement from the 0.3 percent decline first estimated by the government a month ago. That, along with November's solid increase in retail sales, suggested that consumers are still helping to support economic growth in the current quarter, though they aren't spending with the abandon they demonstrated in the third quarter, which economists expected. Sales at automobile dealerships rose by 2.6 percent in November, the largest increase since March and a turnaround from the 1.4 percent drop in October. At electronics and appliances stores, sales went up by 2.2 percent last month, following a 1.6 percent increase. Sales at health and beauty stores rose 1.3 percent, compared with a 0.7 percent increase in October. Furniture sales increased 1 percent in November, up from a 0.4 percent rise the previous month. Sales at clothing stores rose 1.1 percent, an improvement from the flat reading in October. Sales at gasoline stations increased 1.6 percent, compared with a 1.9 percent drop in October, as prices rose at the pump. Excluding gasoline sales, sales at all other stores still went up by 0.8 percent. There were some weak spots, though. Sales at department stores fell by 1.1 percent last month, on top of a 1 percent decline in October. Sales of sporting goods, books and music dipped by 0.5 percent in November, following a 0.3 percent decline.
What is really sad is that Indian programmers actually work for a lot less that $40K/year. $15-20K is a better number. BTW, I should know since my last job went to India. I suspect that after we raise India standard of living that China is next.
Dow industrials close above 10,000 Investors push above key level on strong retail sales data ASSOCIATED PRESS NEW YORK, Dec. 11 — The Dow Jones industrials closed above 10,000 Thursday, a milestone not seen in 18 months as investors cheered Federal Reserve minutes that suggested higher interest rates wouldn’t come anytime soon. STOCKS GAINED GROUND on a better-than-expected November retail sales report before sprinting higher in the late afternoon after the Fed released minutes indicating its concerns about a sluggish job market. “What got the rally started was the Fed,” said Michael Murphy, head trader at Wachovia Securities in Baltimore. “It’s the old Goldilocks theme — low rates, low inflation and strong growth,” explaining that it was the right combination for a strong advance. “This market is ready to a have good run to the end of the year. People are looking at the economy and are starting to see good growth,” he said. The Dow closed up 86.30, or 0.9 percent, at 10,008.16, according to preliminary calculations. The last time the index closed above 10,000 was May 24, 2002, when the Dow stood at 10,104.26. Dow 10,000 purely pyschological The broader gauges also finished higher. The Nasdaq composite index climbed 37.67, or 2 percent, at 1,942.32. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 12.16, or 1.2 percent, at 1,071.21. The milestone marked a solid comeback from the Dow’s five-year low of 7,286.27 on Oct. 9, 2002 and to many, represents the return of the bull market following three years of bitter declines. Many analysts had wondered whether the Dow could push past 10,000 on a longer-term basis, citing psychological resistance. Indeed, the blue chips bounced up and down after the Dow crossed the 10,000 mark for all of one minute in intraday trading Tuesday. Earlier Thursday, the Commerce Department reported a 0.9 percent rise in November retail sales as the nation’s shoppers descended on stores with a fresh burst of energy. It was the largest advance since August, and beat the expectations of economists, who had forecast a 0.7 percent rise. Separately, the Labor Department said new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week by a seasonally adjusted 13,000 to 378,000, suggesting the pace of layoffs is leveling off. As the economy continues to show signs of improvement, analysts say investors are moving out of the tech and small-cap stocks that have led the recovery since March and shifting their profits into larger blue-chip companies. The economic news, while positive on balance, may be temporarily taking a back seat to this rotation, said Alexander Paris, economist and market analyst for Chicago-based Barrington Research. “People have been sitting right on the fence, wondering, ’Should I take profits now and lock in performance?’ But they don’t want to miss the next leg up,” Paris said. “So they may be switching to these companies that have less downside risk.” Still, stocks across all sectors remain extremely vulnerable to negative news, with cautious investors quickly dumping shares when there are signs of trouble. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. declined 84 cents to $6.52 after the company delayed filing its 2002 10-K because of accounting problems in Europe. The filing was being closely watched by union officials because Goodyear had promised to strengthen its balance sheet without laying off workers and closing plants, and had planned to raise cash through debt and other financing. The filing delay will likely postpone those efforts. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. fell 14 cents at $52.81 on reports that it has approached British supermarket group Safeway PLC with an offer to buy part of its business for nearly $2 billion. The move is aimed at foiling a rival offer for Britain’s No. 4 grocer. Unisys Corp. dropped $1.46 to $14.44 after company executives said they were expecting pension expenses of $80 to $90 million next year. Though the firm reiterated its guidance, analysts said the expenses were sure to hurt its bottom line in 2004. Gainers included IKON Office Solutions Inc., which rose $1.75 at $10.55, after it agreed to sell certain assets and liabilities of its IOS Capital unit to GE Vendor Financial Services for about $1.5 billion. General Electric Corp. was up 67 cents at $30.39. Advancing issues outpaced decliners more than 3 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume was moderate. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller company stocks, rose 14.43, or 2.7 percent, at 542.92. Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei stock average finished 1.7 percent higher. In Europe, France’s CAC-40 rose 0.8 percent, Britain’s FTSE 100 lost 0.1 percent and Germany’s DAX index gained 1.0 percent. limk to m***c.com
Dow 10,000 a psychological boost Market observers say level may buoy stocks; others skeptical By Roland Jones MSNBC Dec. 11 — Although it doesn’t mean much to Wall Street in scientific terms, the Dow Jones industrial average’s first close above 10,000 in almost two years is expected to give the market an important psychological boost, analysts say. A LATE-DAY RALLY drove the world’s most recognizable index of stocks up 86.30 points to 10,007.16 in Thursday’s trading session, scoring the Dow’s first close above 10,000 since May 24, 2002. In fact, the index has crisscrossed 10,000 umpteen times since March 29, 1999 — the first time the Dow closed above the level. Blue chips flirted with the milestone in Tuesday’s session, but held above it only momentarily. Blue chips close above 10,000 Unlike technical levels in the market, which analysts predict by mapping trading trends and market patterns, Dow 10,000 is more of an emotional yardstick for investors. It is a level that suggests the worst may now be over for stocks, which have rallied from a five-year low hit earlier this year, experts say. On the day the Dow first finished above 10,000, Wall Street celebrated with a shower of confetti on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, where brokers donned “Dow 10,000” baseball caps. But the Dow index’s latest foray above the 10,000 mark didn’t provoke the same enthusiastic reaction at the Big Board. Back in the go-go days of the late 1990s, the promise of a new economy with untold riches boosted investors’ spirits. But after a dot-com crash and a bruising, three-year bear market, irrational exuberance is likely to be replaced with investor relief that the worst is over for the stock market and that the broader U.S. economy is getting back on its feet. ”[Reaching Dow 10,000] puts a rubber stamp of approval on all the good things that have been happening lately in the stock market and the economy,” said Peter Cardillo, chief strategist at Global Partners Securities. Cardillo also notes that the emotional impact of hitting the 10,000 level could help to wash away some of the skepticism over the market’s remarkable ascent this year. “10,000 has been a hard level to get through, but it’s more psychological than anything else,” Cardillo said. “The first time we broke through it we knocked at the level for some time before finally piercing it, but after that we eliminated the psychological factor and continued to rally.” Bullish investors like Cardillo have made the case that improving fundamentals, record-low interest rates, tame inflation and solid earnings growth point to a positive outlook for the stock market next year. Cardillo thinks the market will continue to climb in 2004. All three stock market indices have risen steadily since hitting their year lows in mid-March. The Standard and Poor’s 500-stock index, a closely followed measure of the overall market, is up over 30 percent. Conversely, some investors see 10,000 as a bearish signal for stocks. They see difficulties ahead in 2004, arguing that the stock market is fully valued at its current level, job creation is lagging and the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates, which could stem the market’s rise. The market is also vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, they say. Some also think the 10,000 level on the Dow could soon trigger a wave of selling from some investors eager to use the milestone as an excuse to take profits from this year’s rally. “Dow 10,000 is played up by the media but it means very little,” said Larry Wachtel, market analyst at Prudential Securities. “Nevermind that earnings are improving. Nevermind that we’ve had nine months of gains. Everyone’s supposed to rush in to buy stocks at 10,000, but for me it’s a lightning rod to sell rather than buy. I think it will invite some selling into strength,” he said. Certainly, the 10,000 level on the Dow isn’t very important from a technical standpoint. Technical analysts, who use charts, graphs and statistics to predict exactly where the stock market is headed, say it doesn’t represent a key area of resistance, which is a level in the market where persistent selling occurs. “Just because the Dow hits 10,000 it doesn’t mean momentum is back and the market will move higher,” remarked John Caldwell, chief equity strategist at McDonald Financial in Cleveland. Last week the Nasdaq Composite index — a gauge of the broad technology sector that has doubled its value during this year’s stock market rally — moved above the emotionally-important 2,000 level for the first time since Jan. 15, 2002. The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report. link to m***c.com
Consumers Unexpectedly Gloomy in December Friday December 12, 10:33 AM EST NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers surprisingly turned gloomier through mid-December despite the economy's rebound, throwing some doubt on spending heading into the final weeks of the holiday shopping season. The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment fell to 89.6 in December from November's final reading of 93.7, according to market sources who saw the report, released on Friday to paying subscribers. The reading was well below the jump to 96.0 economists had expected and immediately pushed the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI) below the 10,000 level and the dollar to a new record low against the euro (EUR=>) The retreat in sentiment comes even as economic growth has boomed in recent months, gradually leading to more hiring, though at a slower pace than in past recoveries. Last month companies added 57,000 workers to their payrolls. "Given the robust (U.S. economic) data we have seen, we would hope that the consumer would be more optimistic about the current state of the economy," said Lara Rhame, senior economist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. The surprising slide in sentiment threw some doubt on consumer spending during the holiday season, though measures of confidence have had little link to actual retail sales in recent years. The drop was driven almost entirely by consumers' assessment of current conditions, which fell sharply to 93.6 from 102.5 the prior month. The expectations index also slid lower, to 87.1 from a final reading of 88.1 in November. The preliminary survey is made up of about 300 interviews with households at mid-month and then rounded out with another 200 responses at the end of the month. ©2003 Reuters Limited.
Maybe this is why they're so gloomy. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A62464-2003Dec13.html Main Street : Stories of the American Economy At Recovery's Dawn Behind the Numbers and the Euphemisms Lie Some Messy Realities By David Finkel Washington Post Staff Writer Sunday, December 14, 2003; Page A01 FRANKENMUTH, Mich. The economic recovery has arrived. The proof is here at Bronner's Christmas Wonderland, the largest Christmas store in the world. "Hi. I'm Chris Hill, and I'm in the Sparkle Department," Bronner's newest hire is saying, and if she can't quite contain her smile it's because she's been waiting for this moment for more than a year. First, Kmart said no. Then Old Navy. Then Fashion Bug. Then Sally's Beauty Supply. On it went, month after month, as companies kept shedding workers. Even the dollar stores said no. And then, in November, when the economy added 57,000 jobs, Bronner's said yes, and here Hill is, in an information session for new employees, being reintroduced to the working world. In comes the personnel director, who says to Hill and 13 other new hires that Bronner's received 2,000 applications this year. "You are definitely the cream of the crop," she says. "You are top-notch." In comes the marketing director to emphasize what's expected of them. "All of you are walking, talking commercials for Bronner's," she says. "Are the bathrooms clean? Is the building clean? Whatever they see, that's their impression of Bronner's." In comes the president and CEO, who continues the cleanliness theme. "What's the number one question people ask when they come in the store? Keep in mind they've been driving to get here. 'Where's the nearest restroom?' Have you been to the restrooms yet? Pretty nice, huh? I'm going to venture to say that our restrooms are nicer and cleaner than most people's restrooms at home." In comes Wally Bronner, the founder, who says, "How many of you are in the Sparkle Department?" Everyone turns to look at Hill, the only one with a hand in the air, and suddenly her status is clear. They will lose their jobs by the end of December. She will still be working in January. They are seasonal. She is permanent. They are Sales. She is Sparkle. "Well, I hope everyone considers themselves members of Sparkle, that you sparkle with your faces," Bronner tells the other 13. "Let's make this place sparkle," he then says, and with that Hill heads out of the conference room, down the stairs, across the showroom floor and through a doorway marked Men. She puts on her gloves. She gets out her disinfectant. She inventories the four urinals. "Three of the four need to be flushed," she says. Time for the Sparkle Department to get to work. Euphemism Masks Reality As the year comes to an end, these are the facts about the recovering economy: The unemployment rate in November was back below 6 percent after hitting a high of 6.4 percent in June. The number of people working is on the rise -- 138.6 million in November, up from 137.5 million in January. The number of jobs is on the rise, as well -- up 328,000 since July. "The American economy is strong" was President Bush's reaction last week when the November employment figures were released, "and it is getting stronger." But just as "sparkle" can be a euphemism for housekeeping, "recovering" can gloss over the reality of what for millions of Americans having a job has come to mean. More people are working part time than ever: Last month, for the first time, the number exceeded 25 million. More are classified as "involuntary" part-time, meaning they would rather be working full time: 4.9 million in November, an increase of 600,000 from a year ago and 1.6 million since the recession began in March 2001. More are working for less pay than they have worked for in the past -- the sectors of the economy adding jobs pay an average of $14.65 an hour, while those discarding jobs pay $16.92, according to an analysis by the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington research center. In addition, more people are cobbling together a working life of two or three part-time jobs to keep up with bills. More jobs come without benefits, the chance for mobility and the security of long-term stability. Wages for most workers are not keeping up with inflation. The number of manufacturing jobs has declined 40 months in a row. The average time spent looking for work is now more than 20 weeks. And many people remain not working at all. Even with the addition of those 328,000 jobs, the total number of jobs is still 2.35 million lower than before the recession. "I'm happy that we're adding jobs. At the same time, I'm mindful of some of the constraints some of these jobs are bringing with them relative to the ones that are being lost," says Jared Bernstein, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute. "We're so focused on jobs -- Are we adding them? How many? -- I think we may have lost focus on what kind of jobs we're getting. Job quality is pretty low right now compared to what it's been in the past." . . .
Before the dems try and spin the economy's improvement as a result of this morning's capture of Saddam Hussein, everyone keep in mind that the DOW eclipsed 10000 two days before Saddam was pulled out of the hole. Find a new platform dems. The clock is ticking and it's not looking good.
Spin this. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=528&e=1&u=/ap/20031215/ap_on_hi_te/ibm_offshoring IBM to Move Software Jobs to India, China 1 hour, 54 minutes ago Add Technology - AP to My Yahoo! ARMONK, N.Y. - IBM Corp. plans to move up to several thousand skilled software jobs from the United States to India, China and other countries, which could amount to one of the biggest such actions yet in the technology industry. IBM documents obtained by The Wall Street Journal said about 4,700 programming jobs could be shifted overseas to save costs, a growing high-tech industry trend known as "offshoring." More than 900 people are already scheduled to be told of the move in the first half of 2004, while another 3,700 jobs have been identified as having the "potential to move offshore," the Journal said. IBM already has hired 500 engineers in India to take on some of the work that will be moved, the Journal reported. The division affected is IBM's Application Management Services group, part of Big Blue's huge technology services division. The IBM facilities where workers could be replaced include offices in Dallas, Southbury, Conn., Poughkeepsie, N.Y., Raleigh, N.C., and Boulder, Colo. IBM spokesman James Sciales said he would not comment on "internal presentations" but noted that most of IBM's work force, which now totals 315,000, has been overseas for years. Sciales also released a statement saying IBM expects hiring in the United States next year will match or exceed 2003 levels. While companies long ago began moving manufacturing jobs and other blue-collar work to Asia, big business is now increasingly shifting skilled work there as well. According to International Data Corp., foreign workers performed about 5 percent of information technology services for American companies this year, but by 2007, that share will grow to 23 percent. Often, the American workers being replaced are called upon to train their overseas replacements. The same will be expected of IBM employees whose jobs are being transferred, according to the Journal. In a speech this fall, IBM chief Sam Palmisano defended the practice of going to Asian countries for skilled labor, saying those nations not only offer lower wages but also have invested heavily in education and modern communications networks. He said the United States should respond with increased investments of its own to remain innovative. "China, India, South Korea (news - web sites) and other rapidly developing nations are replicating the structural advantages that historically have made the U.S. the center of innovation," Palmisano told the Council on Competitiveness in Washington on Oct. 30. "We can't — shouldn't — regret improvements in other nations' competitiveness. Their people deserve to participate fully in the benefits of innovations." IBM shares were up 57 cents at $93.28 in trading Monday on the New York Stock Exchange (news - web sites).
I'm glad somebody bumped this thread because I just read this yesterday; It seems like the initial article that is in the first post was inaccurate, from last week's New Yorker: I'm not taking any position here, I'm just pointing this out for the record.
We can go back to that thread on economics, the markets and news causal effects. Everyone has 20/20 hindsight, and only Warren Buffet has a bit of good foresight in the long term. (Anybody can make one good guess, that stockbroker, Abbie what's her name, made her entire career on one forecast. Not much luck since.)
Forgot to say in my previous message: It's obscenely high for an average technical job on the subcontinent.
Thanks. That was a good story. It tells a lot about how people feel regarding their standard of living. Not that much has changed in the last 50 years. Most are still living over their budget. Having a two-income household is deceiving. It almost gives a family a reason to live beyond their means. "Oh, Honey! With both our incomes, that means I we can "afford" that Lexus I've been dreaming about." It also important to note that the economy downturn was a result of th dot.com bust and 911. People didn't feel right to be spending on "luxery goods" when there were more important matters to worry about (their lives). Add the fact that they might be laid off. Now that the dust has settled on the dot.com graveyard and the leving out of the industry as a whole, it's no wonder that some people are spending some saved up income. But national security is still an issue. All the people wont come out until they feel they are safe (the hording factor). With this president, I don't feel safe.
Uh, how about, "What's good for IBM is good for America?" No, wait, that didn't work.... Note: Former CEO of IBM in the 50's said that statement.
It was my understanding that this was the salaries that BMC Software were paying in Pune India. And I also know that BMC was not getting that many applications per job openings. Thus, the job market in India may be improving dramatically. BTW, my post was a rebuttal of an article about some business owner stating that he had a choice of spending $40K per s/w developer in India versus $80K here in The States.
Here is a telling stat from Woofer's article --- another sign the economy is looking great. Bush continues to fail in his duties to improve our nation's economy so we can pay our workers HERE in the US.
