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Montero Returns

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by rocketlaunch, Nov 12, 2022.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Yep. Abreu's slider in 2019 and this year were beautiful pitches. The Astros have a great collection of beautiful pitches, but Abreu's slider is my favorite from an aesthetic and dominance standpoint.
     
  2. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    That's the thing about Neris; he did have a great season. He was slightly better by fWAR at 1.6 than Pressley (1.4), Montero (1.5), or Abreu (1.4). That is a monster back 4.

    By fielding independent measures (i.e. FIP) he was brilliant. His FIP was 2.35, which ranks 17 out of all MLB relievers with over 50 innings (144 qualified). A sampling of the names ahead of him on that list include: Edwin Diaz, Emmanual Clase, Devin Williams and Bryan Abreu.

    His ERA was hurt by a not great BABIP (.291 which was up 29pts from the prior year) and a mediocre Left-on-base rate (63.4% down from 76.8% the prior year).
     
  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    His ERA was hurt by his LOB numbers (i.e., sequencing), but Neris's career average BABIP is 0.289. Neris has better K and BB peripherals than Montero, but Montero's quality of contact peripherals are much better than Neris's. I expect Neris's LOB numbers will be more normal next year, but I'm doubtful his HR rate stays low. Montero has a couple of years of being one of the best at supressing contact with 4Ss up, sinkers low and in, and changeups low. I think Montero will continue to limit homers.

    Edit: I do like both and have both in a tier below Abreu and Pressly.

    Yep. Astros get a lead after 5 in the postseason should be very scary for opposing teams. I'm thinking the offense next year will be better at getting leads by the end of the 5th.
     
    #263 Joe Joe, Nov 17, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2022
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  4. Yordan The Great

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    Tyler Matzek who's been largely terrific for the Braves the past 2+ seasons, 2 years $3.1 million.

    Just saying.
     
  5. sealclubber1016

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    Not a free agent or as good as Montero and just had TJ surgery

    Just saying
     
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  6. Yordan The Great

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    Oops the TJ I was certainly not aware of.

    Yeah he's lucky to get any kind of contract.
     
  7. Yordan The Great

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  8. the shark

    the shark Member

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    We get it you don't like the Montero signing!!!

    Obviously you know more then Stros. Their analytical people along with the pitching coaches who wanted him included in the Toro trade and ultimately fixed him.

    A team that doesn't throw $$ around felt this was a good investment. Throw in they potentially lose Neris and Stanek next yr and to assume that they both can be easily replaced is foolish. Yes there's always bullpen arms out there but they like knowing that the ones they have held up not just during the regular season but in the HIGHEST leverage situations a pitcher can be in and that's the ALDS, the ALCS and more importantly the F'n World Series.
     
  9. Nook

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    How is Matzek going to help them in 2023? He isn't even pitching in 2023.
     
  10. Major

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    I think the Montero signing is fine, but I have a problem with this way of thinking. You could make this argument about any move they made, and it basically means fans should never have opinions on anything and should just agree with everything the team does. The team has thrown money at failed pitchers so it's not like they have a perfect track record.
     
  11. Nook

    Nook Member

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  12. Nook

    Nook Member

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    No team is perfect, the Astros paid Verlander for two seasons and he didn't even pitch. The Astros likely could have locked up Montero BEFORE last season for half of what they are paying him. There is always an injury risk, and there is also a risk that performance lapses. The only issue I have with it is the idea that the amount they paid Montero is an overpay, when it isn't, it is in line with what relievers are making now. Also, pointing to players like Matzuk don't really help a position when he won't even play in 2023.
     
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  13. Bregatron

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  14. the shark

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    I agree with your assessment (that fans have their opinions and don't have to agree with every move/signing a team makes). However, to go on and on about it ad nauseam???? I mean give it a rest.
     
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  15. Yordan The Great

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    We already went over this, pay attention.
     
  16. Yordan The Great

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    Absolutely Montero was really really good for us, his ability to close games when Pressly went on the shelf, an added bonus for sure.

    His performance in the playoffs largely mimicked his performance during the regular season, again very well done in all aspects.

    The question you need to ask yourself is can he duplicate 2022 for the next 3 years straight? Because if he turns into Neris at mid 3 era (and I think it's somewhat likely), then you just paid a $6-8 million pitcher $11.5 million a year.

    Here's to hoping he is utterly terrific these next 3 seasons! I would love to be dead wrong about this.
     
  17. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Market value changes based on league demands/availability.

    Nerris would get paid even more this off-season if he was a FA. Also, would try and use better metrics than simply ERA when evaluating high leverage relief.

    In the end, having not only multiple options for high value relief... but options that have had success on the biggest of stages where the pressure amps up the most... is what potential playoff teams are in position to pay for right now.
     
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  18. the shark

    the shark Member

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    "If he turns into Neris"??

    You mean the guy who was NAILS in the postseason? Will take that ALL DAY LONG!!

    Plus I'm not paying him anything (Crane is) and they thought Montero was worth the investment.
     
  19. Major

    Major Member

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    Fair point - agree on that!
     
  20. the shark

    the shark Member

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    Agree with you on "hoping he is utterly terrific these next 3 seasons".
     

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