I just think back to game 6 and the fact you chose to use the young phenom Abreu in the 8th inning when you clearly could have gone to "your guy" but didn't. And then we turn around and decide to make him the fifth highest paid relief pitcher in all of baseball.
I'm sure the fact that the Phillies had already seen him 4 times had absolutely nothing to do with that. There aren't just 2 relievers used in every game, even if he were our 4th best reliever he's still gonna be pitching leverage innings all the same.
This isn't that hard to grasp but obviously for you it is. With that depth, they have multiple guys who could pitch the 8th and even close games (which Montero did during the season when Pressly was on IR). What happens if one of these guys gets hurt? You thinking that it's so easy replace Montero (at a cheaper price), or that anyone else could step in and fill his role is short sighted thinking. Why mess with a formula they know works. And let's say you're right that they could have got him for 8-9 mil, why risk it?? They want to have that depth for next yr to try and repeat and there's a good chance they lose Neris and Stanek after next season as they'll both be FA.
I'm not over the moon with the Montero deal because I fear it will hinder other signings, but people still look at reliever/starter innings incorrectly. Montero posted a 2.37 ERA in 68 innings and will be making 11.5 million. If Montero posted a 2.37 ERA over 204 innings would he be worth 34.5 million. Obviously you can't pay everybody at that rate, but you have to pitch 1450 innings give or take. This solidifies elite work for 60-70 of the most competitive ones...in theory. If you have the money available it makes sense.
First, I CAN make the statement and not expound on it, but I WILL expound on it...... Nick Martinez signed a 3-year deal that will be worth 3/42 or or 3/26 depending on how well he does this year. There is a player option that he can trigger that guarantees him 3/26, and if he declines the player option, the Padres have an option to trigger their option and turn the deal into 3/42. Do you think Nick Martinez is remotely as good as Montero? Martinez had an era well over a run higher than Montero's last year and a FIP almost two runs higher. I don't think that the Martinez contract really proves your point at all. I will take Montero's deal over the deal Martinez got 10 out of 10 times if I am an MLB team. This is also on the heels of Robert Suarez getting 5/46 with him getting 3/30 and then HE has an option for years 4/5 at 16 million total. Suarez has some real flags as well, including a very high walk rate. So, Suarez at a minimum will make close to what Montero makes over the next three years AND he has his own option he can exercise when he is 35-36 years old that will give him an extra 16 million when he will be old. Then there is Diaz who just got 5/105 from the Mets. Montero is better than Martinez and Suarez and Diaz just got nearly $70,000,000 more than Montero. The point is, the game changes and in this case, relievers with elite stuff or at least have an elite pitcher in the bullpen are extremely valuable. Montero and Pressly both have elite pitches, and that is why they are paid what they are. The Astros did not want to wait out the market, they wanted to get Montero signed and they likely saved themselves some money doing so. If you want to be critical of anything, it should be that the Astros were obviously confident they could fix Montero, they kept him on the team and worked with him - yet they never extended him at pennies on the dollar when they could have before last season. The Astros are paying $33.5 million this season for Pressly, Montero and Neris...... and they are worth every penny, especially on a team that will have a payroll north of $200 million next season. Where would the Astros be without them? Together they make roughly what Bregman makes.
Montero was a horse in the playoffs for the Astros. He pitched in 10 of the 13 games the Astros played in the post season and had an era of under 2.00 He pitched in 4 of the first 5 World Series games and did well.... the only reason he didn't pitch in game 6 was that the Phillies had seen him 4 times already and there was also a fatigue factor.
I've seen this narrative a few times........ I was at game 6. After the 7th inning BOTH Abreu and Montero were warming in the bullpen. Abreu ultimately went in and threw a shutdown inning but had things gone awry, Montero would have gone in. As sealclubber1016 said, the fact that Montero had already thrown/been seen 4 times in the series was probably the big consideration in throwing Abreu in the 8th. But Dusty was fully prepared to use Montero if necessary.
With the LAD losing Blake Treinen for next season, in my opinion, Montero was DEFINITELY on their radar knowing he's playoff tested and can close games.
Montero produced in actual run prevention, but boy did he not instill confidence. Nearly gave up that big HR. Last appearance gave up 2 walks and a hit. No doubt Dusty trusted him, but going into 2023 I don't see him as better than Neris or Stanek. So much money for a 32 year old reliever with only one quality full season. Of course, I thought they overpaid him last offseason giving him anything above the minimum and obviously performed extremely well.
Not the best assumption, but bear with me, if you assume that Press/Montero/Neris run back their combined 4.5 fWAR next seasonat $33.5m..... that's $7.4m/fWAR. It's market price.... but it's not terrible value. I don't understand why this is such a flashpoint. Josh Donaldson got paid $23m to produce 1.6 fWAR ($14.3m/fWAR). And he'll get $21m next year. That's something to be angry about, if you were a Yankees fan. (and yes I really wish the Astros would adopt the Braves model of early extensions for people they believe in).
I think it was pretty clear that he was overused and overexposed during the playoff run, but Dusty was going to ride or die with him. I have no explanation for Stanek barely pitching in the WS. Clean innings were at a premium in the playoffs. Pressley himself almost always allows a baserunner on.
Dusty was definitely consistent with Pressly being the top guy, followed by Montero, Abreu, and Neris in that order. What's interesting is that he seemingly abandoned Stanek who only had 3IP in 4 games throughout the playoffs, and struck out 6 with 0 hits and only 1 walk.
Stanek disappearing still baffles me. He has the lights out stuff that is valued in the post season and did pitch well when given the chance. 3 g. 3ip 0 hits, 1bb and 6 Ks. ZERO runs. Only thing I can think of is his high BB% and FIP compared to the other high leverage options.
Wonder if they consider dealing Stanek. The Mariners didn't use Swanson much in the postseason, then dealt him for Teo. A team like the Mets desperately needs relievers, and the Astros have 5 really good ones. I hope the Astros give Enoli another chance. The success of Framber and Abreu makes me hesitant to give up on anyone with a big fastball and a wicked curve.
It's an interesting thought but with only 1 year of control left and not bring used in the playoffs he may have more value on this team. When I expected Montero to leave via FA I thought that Paredes may replace his roster spot. I get that there is no such thing as too much pitching. But there are still only so many roster spots. 7 bullpen spots Pressley, Neris, Abreu, Montero, and Stanek are locked in as of now. (If JV resigns then another spot is taken by Brown, Garcia, or Urquidy) The team has stated it wants a LHP in the bullpen that complicates things. Maton, Paredes, Taylor( L), Mushinski(L), Seth Martinez, France, Dubin, James, Blanco, Bielak and Whitley are all still on the 40 man roster as options. It sure feels like a few of these could get traded off or DFA'd. Maybe thus is why pitchers like Jayden Murray were not added and protected from the rule 5 draft
Swanson has 3 more years or arbitration. Stanek is a free agent after next season. He doesn't have near the value. I would rather just keep him
The Stros have a small number of particular needs. To the extent trading Stanek would fill one of those needs or upgrade an existing position I'm sure they would do it, but it'd be pure guessing to speculate what that move would look like. I don't see them flipping him for prospects.
Is this a bad thing? If the Astros were not confident about making the postseason, signing Montero to this amount is likely excessive. I think the Astros are going to add some offense this offseason. Without Verlander, I see the Astros likely needing more 5+ inning relief outings in postseason wins. McCullers or Garcia have a lead after 4, some mixture of Pressly, Montero, Abreu, Neris, Stanek, and Brown will be used. This assumes health/effectiveness. Odds are there will be someone hurt or underperforming (or someone steps up taking a spot). Maybe Montero is the one that sucks. Maybe it is Neris. I feel much better having the potential of having too much pitching, than worrying about not having enough or having to depend on a trade at deadline to shore up pen.
I don't know.... I have a lot more confidence in Montero than Neris and Stanek actually too. Abreu and Pressly are the two I will have more confidence in going forward.
