These are the Texans we are talking about. The Texans are masters at seizing defeat from certain victory. They will screw up their draft, you can count on it. They desperately need a QB, they won't get one. They will pick players no one has ever heard of, and they will never be heard about again The tradition of losing and screwing their fans is unbroken. Hopeless, hapless, and totally incompetent.
The problem with that versus Lance is you get the added value of possiblly trading out of #2 which increases the talent around the QB. Taking one #2 shows greater commitment and would make it harder to use another high pick or picks for a replacement a year later for a Rosen or Zack Wilson situation. About half of all top 5 pick qbs are busts. So figure 50/50 you're wasting the #2 pick. If you don't love the player, trade the pick to someone who will.
The problem with that versus Lance is you get the added value of possiblly trading out of #2 which increases the talent around the QB. Taking one #2 shows greater commitment and would make it harder to use another high pick or picks for a replacement a year later for a Rosen or Zack Wilson situation. About half of all top 5 pick qbs are busts. So figure 50/50 you're wasting the #2 pick. If you don't love the player, trade the pick to someone who will. I'm reading now thay is is more like a #3 for Lance. To date he has been a bust like Alex Smith. He really hasn't played much though. You would go that route if you don't believe in a qb left at 2. Lance has been learning this offense for 2 years so he would have a head start and minimal cap commitment if he gets cut in a year. Drafting a guy and eating almost the entire bonus a year later hurts more.
What if they did: To Raiders: #2 To Texans: #7, #38, 2024 #1 Gives us 3 #1 picks in 2024. Assuming the 4 qbs, Carter, and Anderson are top 6... #7 Witherspoon #12 Bijan Robinson Trade 33/38 for 14 #14 Jaxon Smith Njigba Then deal for Lance with a #3, draft a center with the other. #104 best pass rusher available. Could go Tyree at 7... thought value of corner opposite Stingley might have better value.
Still think if trading down... Seattle #2 for #5/#20 Then Las Vegas #5/#65 FOR #7/#38 Maybe a QB falls... Then Wahington #7/#104 for #16/#47/#97 We then have: 12 16 20 33 38 47 73 97 Could look like (in order) Jaxson Smith-Njigba Bijan Robinson Nolan Smith Michael Mayer Hendon Hooker Luke Wypler Moro Ojomo Jaylon Jones I would do it but it's definitely unlikely.... I also think Philly going Bijan at 10...
If they took Anderson at 2 then traded for value on 12: To Lions: 12 65 104 To Texans: 18 48 55 That's about 110 points to our benefit on the value chart on football reference. Maybe a future 3 or 4 to even out... Texans then have: 18 33 48 55 Thinking WR, Center, TE, and QB with those picks... maybe Bijan if he falls to 18. If this was your first 5 picks, how do you feel? Will Anderson Jaxon Smith-Njigba/Bijan/Quentin Johnson Michael Meyer/Dalton Kincaid Hendon Hooker Luke Wypler ?
I actually do not think Texans will grab a TE early in this draft. I think they really like Quentin Tarantino. They may grab one later. Someone like Schoonmaker or Will Mallory.
Just sitting put.... hard to find fault with: Will Anderson Bijan Robinson Quentin Johnson Hendon Hooker Luke Wypler That would mean 3 of your top 5 picks were the #1 player rank at their position...
Yeah, complete fantasy mostly... I think moving to 5 keeps it likely Anderson is still there. It think Arizona gets too big an offer to leap past Colts to take a qb and think Colts will just settle for who is left. So if you get the same guy at 5 than 2 it's a free pick... there is a risk colts take Anderson or someone trades with AZ to do so. That would then leave the last of the 4 qbs in your lap with teams willing to trade up for it... So i think that is the most logical path if Seattle wants a qb.
My pure conjecture guesstimate of the top of the draft I did for another forum. The harder of the two slots was #12 for me, but went for a "what the hey" pick given I feel like we need a lot. I would probably guess we'd trade back if it got to us as 12 like this, but maybe not. If JSN is gone and we do feel like we want/need weapons, I'm not convinced we'd pick any of the other WRs this high. If we couldn't trade down, maybe we go defender, but it'd be fun if we started as I have it here. The Titans need an OL really badly but if Levis is there, it's entirely possible they pick him. It'd also stop the conjecture on what we'd do at 12 as Hooker is too ambitious there in my opinion. 1. Panthers - Bryce Young, QB Alabama 2. Raiders (trade with HOU) - CJ Stroud, QB tOSU 3. Colts (trade with ARI)- Anthony Richardson - QB Florida 4. Cardinals (trade with IND) - Will Anderson, DE Alabama 5. Seahawks - Tyree Wilson, DE Texas Tech 6. Lions - Devon Witherspoon, CB Illinois 7. Texans (trade with LV) - Jalen Carter, DT Georgia 8. Falcons - Myles Murphy, DE Clemson 9. Bears - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR tOSU 10. Eagles - Calijah Kancey, DT Pitt 11. Titans - Peter Skoronski, OL Northwestern 12. Texans - Bijan Robinson, RB Texas
I'm not sure a single word of this post is accurate. Trey Lance has made 4 career starts. He *may be* a bust. But he is not, currently, a bust. And I would wager very few 49er fans would agree with you because, again, he's made 4 career starts. A 2024 2nd round pick would be a terrific deal for Trey Lance - would allow you to add as many as four premium round 1 talents to the roster to build around him the next two years, and wouldn't touch your 2 2s this year. Meanwhile, getting a QB would allow you to potentially deal down and accumulate more premium picks this year & next. That would be a tremendous win Lastly, they did not sign Sam Darnold to compete for the starting job. They signed Sam Darnold to back-up either a) Trey Lance, because Brock Purdy is going to miss too much of the '23 season; b) they've traded Trey Lance, because Prudy is expected back in time to be their starting QB.
I wonder if Niners do Lance for Mills and a 4th or 5th? Mills I think has shown to be backup material despite bad coaching and little talent around him... that has some value... Then Texans pick someone like Stetson in mid rounds to fill in as #3...
Better guess with the Texans likely stuck at #2 if I had to guess and Arizona likely being one of the few destinations for teams to trade up for. I would bet the Titans are most likely to move to get in front of the Colts to grab Stroud if we pass, but also hearing the Colts love Levis too. Pieces seem to fit together likely best in this way other than my pure conjecture at the end and having fun with things at 12. 1. Panthers - Bryce Young, QB Alabama 2. Texans - Will Anderson, DE Alabama 3. Titans - (trade with ARI) - CJ Stroud, QB tOSU 4. Colts - Will Levis, QB Kentucky 5. Seahawks - Tyree Wilson, DE Texas Tech 6. Lions - Jalen Carter, DT Georgia 7. Raiders - Anthony Richardson, QB Florida 8. Falcons - Peter Skoronski, OL Northwestern 9. Bears - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR tOSU 10. Eagles - Calijah Kancey, DT Pitt 11. Cardinals (trade with TEN) - Devon Witherspoon, CB Illinois 12. Texans - Bijan Robinson, RB Texas
You are welcome. I was a HUGE Oiler fan. I followed the Texans for many years. The BOB era finally did me in. I am done. First time I have posted in this forum for a very long time. Don't worry, I won't be back any time soon, like maybe never.
