So this guy's pretty beastly. 6'5", 220lbs, mid-90s fastball, filthy slider, and an assortment of other pitches. Here are his numbers in Japan the last five years: 2007 (age 20) 26 GS, 207.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 0.828 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 9.1 SO/9 2008 (age 21) 24 GS, 200.2 IP, 1.88 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 9.3 SO/9 2009 (age 22) 23 GS, 182.0 IP, 1.73 ERA, 0.896 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 8.3 SO/9 2010 (age 23) 25 GS, 202.0 IP, 1.78 ERA, 1.015 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 9.9 SO/9 2011 (age 24) 28 GS, 232.0 IP, 1.44 ERA, 0.820 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9, 10.7 SO/9 He's also won 2 Gold Gloves over there. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/dsB717k2hNk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> Darvish's numbers absolutely dwarf the stats that Dice-K posted in Japan. He's really without question the greatest pitcher in Japanese history, and he's just 25-years-old. The winning posting bid is expected to be announced sometime today. Probably in the $40-$50MM range. The frontrunners are thought to be the Blue Jays and Rangers, with the Yanks and Cubs in the mix.
It should also be noted that in 2011, the Japanese leagues switched to a larger ball, one the same size as the ball used by MLB. Didn't seem to hurt Darvish's performance. I don't know if he'll be an immediate CYA candidate, but I do think it's extremely likely he'll be a top of the rotation (any rotation) starter.
The Blue Jays are finally going to do something right, I hope they get him, this guy is the real deal based on highlights I've seen. His pitches seem to have a lot of late movement on them.
You a Blue Jay fan? BTW, I would agree the Blue Jays got to go for it now. They've got Bautista in his prime, if they waste his best years, what the point. We need Darvish, Prince, and Gio Gonzalez. That's my dream scenario, Gonzalez will cost a few top prospects, if it happens, watch out!! BUT, I doubt it.
I have my doubts about Japanese pitchers. They don't face nearly the same type of power in Japan as they do in the MLB.
Toronto it is they were. The highest bidder http://tracking.si.com/2011/12/16/r...igh-bidder-for-yu-darvish-negotiating-rights/
Err... Where does it say that they won? It's referring to an article by George King of the Post (who's wrong a lot, btw), that says: It's still basically speculation.
Not really a baseball fan but I will catch them if they are in the PO and check this guy out if they do land him. I live in the GTA so yeah anything with a star player coming here is a big deal. Rumor is that Toronto won the bid so we will wait and see if he wants to play in TO.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/baseball/mlb/12/17/yu.darvish/ Interesting if true. Supposedly the Toronto bid was in the $40-48MM range. This screams 'Yankees' to me.
gonna be ill if it was the rangers. we're gonna be in the best division in baseball. i know it seems insane, and they aren't in the market to take somewhat of a shot in the dark for that price, but this guy is obviously gonna be a strasburg-ian draw, and if he's a superstud in the majors, it would make some sense for the astros to get him. i know there's a 0% chance that they even considered it, but if they plan to be good in 2-3 years, they'd already have a built in ace, and somebody who will put butts in the seats 1/4 of the home games until then.
$125MM for 5 years for a guy who's never pitched a day in the majors? That's insanely stupid, no matter how good he might turn out to be. Even if he turns out to be the best pitcher in baseball, you're STILL not getting a bargain.
I tend to disagree, though it depends on the team. The posting fee is a sunk cost, it doesn't count towards team payroll so there are no luxury tax implications. For a team like the Yankees, or the Jays with Rogers Communications footing the bill, I don't think it's something you worry about moving forward in terms of future spending. So what it really comes down to is whether a 25-year-old starter with top-of-the-rotation potential is worth a five year commitment at a cost of $12-15MM annually. For a team like the Yankees, I would say yes. For the Blue Jays, trying to compete in an absolutely LOADED division, I'd also say yes, with the caveat that they're in less of a position to absorb the contract if he bombs. I think it's a slightly different story with Texas. I'm not sure what they're team finances are, and if they didn't want to invest that money in a proven guy like Wilson, I'm not so sure they'd be willing to throw a lot of money at Darvish unless Daniels and Nolan REALLY like him. It'll be very interesting to see how to turns out either way. Imagine if it's the Nationals! A 1-2-3 of Strasburg/Darvish/Zimmerman... Wow.
It's only a sunk cost if you pay it though. After you win the bid, then I agree - signing him is a matter of $12-$15MM/yr. But right now, you still have to shell out the $50MM posting bid as well. That is money that can be used on any other player(s), so it absolutely has to be factored in. At the end of the day, you're spending $125MM to get a player for 5 years, and you could spend that $125MM anywhere else, so that's what you have to compare to. The Bluejays are nowhere near the luxury tax, so that's not important to them - though I agree it might matter for some other teams. But ultimately, the way you have to look at it is if the guy was a free agent, would you sign him to a $125MM / 5 yr deal? If not, you shouldn't do be paying this. I will say - the one advantage you get that is worth something is that winning the bid takes every other team out of the bidding. So you're paying, to some extent, to not have to bid against the Yankees. But if your net cost is going to be $25MM/yr, it doesn't seem to matter all that much. Also, if you get your posting fee returned if you can't come to an agreement, then that makes some sense too - you could always try to win the bid and sign a lesser deal. But I'm assuming that's not the case.
